Recommendation logic: the company vigorously promotes product change and channel change, and is in an aggressive stage of scale expansion. After the joining of the general manager of Sanshu, the management continues to grow, and the employee stock ownership plan has fallen to the ground, starting a new journey of "five years of towering, ten-year dream of 10 billion", and the performance inflection point has appeared.
The top wall market exceeds 70 billion, the permeability continues to improve, and the pattern is constantly optimized. According to the statistics of the Association, the market size of the roof wall in 2021 is 77.6 billion yuan, including 38.6 billion yuan for the integrated ceiling and 39 billion yuan for the integrated wall.
In the residential field, the advantages of integrated roof wall are outstanding, such as beautiful, moistureproof, thermal insulation and so on. In the field of public decoration such as hotels, office buildings and shopping malls, the integrated roof wall also has the advantages of short construction period and more in line with the requirements of prefabricated buildings. On the basis of the current low permeability, the long-term market space exceeds 100 billion yuan. At present, the competition pattern is still scattered, but small enterprises continue to withdraw, the head enterprises rely on product power and channel advantages to expand rapidly has formed a trend, the degree of concentration continues to improve.
Product change: from integrated ceiling to top wall of high-end building. In 2021, the income of Fashilong integrated ceiling and integrated wall is 5.6yuan and 70 million yuan respectively, which is not large. However, since 2021, the company has comprehensively upgraded its product line and made efforts to integrate the wall, and the company has positioned the brand as "French Lion Dragon-living room ceiling".
Changed to "French lion dragon-professional high-end building roof wall", has formed a multi-color, multi-effect, multi-material rich product series. In 2022, the company plans to further upgrade 300 models and add 200 new products, which will lead the industry and continue to improve.
Channel change: from single retail monopoly to multi-channel. In 2021, the company carried out channel reform, the retail end, the company increased dealer expansion efforts to stabilize third-and fourth-tier cities and to the weak first-and second-tier cities. At the same time, the company laid out distribution channels at the end of 2021 and set up distribution outlets in various counties and towns as order entrances, which greatly increased the sales tentacles of dealers. In addition, the company sets up a home decoration company business center and an engineering business center to carry out business by recruiting service providers and engineering agents. At present, it has cooperated with Shengdu, Golden Mantis and other decoration enterprises, Vanke, Poly and other high-quality housing enterprises. China Construction, China Railway Construction Corporation, China Rallway and other leading general contractors, Honey Snow Ice City, home furnishings and other commercial space to cooperate from a single retail to retail, installation enterprises, engineering three major channels in parallel.
The management team continues to grow, with a new goal of ten billion yuan in a decade. In October 2021, the company appointed Mr. Kuang Zhengsan as executive deputy general manager. From June 2009 to June 2021, Mr. Kuang served as the provincial manager, regional director, general manager of decoration paint department and general manager of retail strategy department. Its rich experience in the building materials industry is expected to provide strong help for the future development of the company. The company issued an employee stock ownership plan in December 2021, and the revenue target for 2022-2023 is no less than 69% and 120% compared with 2020 (corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of not less than 14.2% and 30.2%). In July 2022, the company held a press conference on the strategy of "professional high-end building top wall" of French Lion Dragon in Guangzhou in July 2022, and put forward the "strive to exceed 3 billion in 2025 and 10 billion in 2030" and "stand tall in five years and dream in ten years".
The new goal, performance has entered a period of acceleration.
Profit forecast: under the comprehensive reform of the company, the performance inflection point has appeared, and it will have a high growth in the future.
It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 917 million, 1.276 billion and 1.779 billion respectively, and its net profit will be 76 million, 118 million and 169 million respectively, with a three-year performance growth rate of 49.3%, corresponding to a PE of 26x, 17x and 12x respectively, giving a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk tips: the real estate industry continues to decline sharply risk, raw material prices rise sharply risk.