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瑞银公布年内首选股清单:动荡市场中,这些股票最具吸引力!

UBS released a list of preferred stocks for the year: these stocks are the most attractive in volatile markets!

富途資訊 ·  Aug 1, 2022 18:19

UBS surveyed its analysts to look for stocks with attractive and upside potential in volatile markets.

On Sunday, UBS released a list of preferred stocks for 2022 based on an internal analyst survey. Strategist Keith Parker wrote: "the selection of stocks in this list is based on the real consensus of analysts and our proprietary data sources. From a strategic point of view, we find that the risk-return ratio of these stocks is attractive when considering so many recession risks (> 80pctl). In addition, more than half of this year has passed. It becomes more important to improve portfolio returns by avoiding the worst-performing stocks. "

"in fact, our analysts have identified attractive opportunities in volatile markets," UBS said in a report. "

The following is the second half of 2022 released by UBS, first by industryList of shares:

1. Basic materials ($SPDR raw materials ETF (XLB.US) $

1、$DuPont (DD.US) $Target price: $96

We believe that the market is not aware of the significant shift in DuPont's exposure and growth following a series of strategic actions.

2、$Steel Dynamics (STLD.US) $Target price: $105

We estimate that due to the rise in iron ore / coking coal prices to the 2H22 (spot price of $1300 / tonne), steel prices should find support around the $9-1000 / st level before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which is still well above historical levels.

3、$Berry Global Group (BERY.US) $Target price: $78

We believe that lower leverage, stable / growing returns, increased cyclical raw material portfolios and changes in cash return policies (more returns and growth investments) are factors that should make investor sentiment more positive and will drive share prices higher.

4、$Graphic Packaging (GPK.US) $Target price: $26

Our buy rating on GPK reflects our view that after years of stagnant growth and limited pricing power, the cardboard market is undervalued.

II. Capital goods and industry (Industrial Index ETF-SPDR (XLI.US) $

1、$Boeing Co (BA.US) $Target price: $263

We believe that BA now has a story to tell until consumer confidence is restored, which will begin with the delivery of Boeing Co's 787s, which will be improved by the continued increase in deliveries of the 737s and the resumption of 737MAX operations and deliveries in China.

2、$Saia (SAIA.US) $Target price: $240

In our view, Saia shares already reflect expectations of a sharp decline in freight, given that Saia shares fell 45% in 2022 (compared with an 18% decline in the s & p 500). We believe that the current valuation (14 times 2022 earnings per share) is very attractive.

3、$MSCI Inc (MSCI.US) $Target price: $564

While valuations are still measured by historical standards, we still believe that MSCI has the best earnings growth and potential upside opportunities among its peers, particularly in ESG and climate, which should receive a premium multiple.

4、Tyco Electronics (TEL.US) $Target price: $165

Under the background of paying great attention to the establishment of flexible and connected investment, the post-epidemic economy will accelerate the development of TEL. As these trends continue to occupy the share of capital expenditure, we see that market growth and historical levels are good for both earnings per share and valuations.

III. Consumption ($SPDR non-essential consumer ETF (XLY.US) $Selected daily consumer goods industry index ETF-SPDR (XLP.US) $)

1、$Alaska Airlines (ALK.US) $Target price: $80

We have always regarded ALK as the first choice for American airlines in 2022 because it performed particularly well in the COVID-19 epidemic by avoiding shareholder dilution and supporting the balance sheet / improving net debt.

2、$Spectrum Brands (SPB.US) $Target price: $119

Spectrum Brands's upward logic has always been based on the release of the value of undervalued assets, and although the stock performance from here will depend on the timing of trading, we believe that the divestiture of HHI and the potential strategic action of HPC are meaningful steps to release value.

3、$Nomad Foods (NOMD.US) $Target price: $26

In view of the inflationary environment, we believe that PL will also need to adopt multiple rounds of prices, otherwise it will face huge profit pressure.

4、$Walmart Inc (WMT.US) $Target price: $165

We think Walmart Inc is now approaching an inflection point where it can use technology to reduce expenses and speed up its productivity cycle. It has achieved high quality in online grocery stores and will gain more advantages as consumers change their spending habits with the epidemic.

5、Hilton Hotel (HLT.US) $Target price: $157

We believe that HLT will perform better thanMarriott Hotel (MAR.US) $Because the unit growth is better, and we also see multiple catalysts in the hotel industry, because of factors such as the increase in performance in the morning, the overall occupancy rate of the hotel industry continues to improve, which will bring it higher profits.

6、$Owens Corning (OC.US) $Target price: $137

We modeled OC and predicted that the company would generate more than $1 billion in free cash flow each year by 2024 and buy back about 13% of its shares.

7、Mattel (MAT.US) $Target price: $36

In our view, Mattel's profit margin target of 16-17% for 23 years is fully achievable in view of the value-added growth of major private brands and the accelerated growth of franchise brands.

8、$McDonald's Corp (MCD.US) $Target price: $290

We believe that the increase in US consumer power is sustainable and continue to see that the company's market share in most of the world's major markets is likely to increase as the international market recovers in the future.

9、$O'Reilly (ORLY.US) $The target price is $750

In the context of a recession, industry trends should remain good, and if inflation lasts longer, it also has solid pricing power.

10、$On Holding (ONON.US) $The target price is $39

The market believes that On is mainly a running shoe brand, but the current price of its share price does not fully realize the potential of the brand in the larger market.

IV. Energy ($SPDR Energy Index ETF (XLE.US) $

1、$Generac (GNRC.US) $The target price is $450

Dominant market share (~ 80%) and strong demand for household backup power have insulated already high profit margins for residential products from inflationary cost pressures.

2、$Sampra Energy (SRE.US) $The target price is $198

With the acceleration of clean energy transformation, we see that the growth of Sempra will accelerate.

3、$Cheniere Energy (LNG.US) $The target price is $184

We believe that the market does not fully understand the value of the company's professional strength such as liquefaction.

5. Finance ($SPDR Financial Industry ETF (XLF.US) $) and real estate ($The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE.US) $)

1、Volkswagen Bank (BPOP.US) $Target price: $122

BPOP should outperform the market with a low reserve ratio and large reserves, just as mainland banks increase reserves and cope with the loss of deposits.

2、$Bank of America Corporation (BAC.US) $Target price: $64

We see BAC as both a cyclical winner and a long-term winner, capable of providing returns from leading peers in a high-interest-rate environment if the expansion cycle continues, and downside protection if economic conditions deteriorate.

3、$Nasdaq (NDAQ.US) $Target price: $213

The company's strategic focus on allocating capital to its fastest-growing businesses (investment intelligence and market technology) has been well received and has driven double-digit non-transactional organic growth in recent quarters (on average + 11% between 1Q19 and 1Q22).

4、$ALL.US (Allstate) $Target price: $160

We believe that the increase in fees for the Hershida personal car business will begin to offset the loss trend.

5、American Reinsurance Group (RGA.US) $Target price: $149

We believe that RGA's stock continues to overreflect the risk of death from the epidemic, and we believe that RGA's share price is grossly undervalued given the improved underwriting comments in the first quarter of 22 and the recent upward multichannel earnings.

6、$Asset Residential Company (EQR.US) $Target price: $104

Rents have risen in each market compared to 2019 levels, and we believe EQR can see this momentum continue beyond the peak spring rental season.

VI. Medical care (Health Care Select Industry Index ETF-SPDR (XLV.US) $)

1、$Futai Pharmaceutical (VRTX.US) $Target price: $321

At the current level, compared with our conservative estimate of $58 per share, the market does not give due value to VRTX's R & D pipeline.

2、$Acadia Medical Care (ACHC.US) $Target price: $86

We modeled each pillar of the company's growth strategy and saw a balanced EBITDA contribution of nearly $170 million, which could support more than 10 per cent EBITDA growth over the next five years, even taking into account the potential pressure on Medicaid claims.

3、$Leico (LH.US) $Target price: $326

We believe that as the impact of the epidemic weakens and the health of basic business emerges, the growth of LH should expand.

4、$Ai Kunwei (IQV.US) $Target price: $290

A strong belief in IQV's data-driven patient recruitment strategy, coupled with a favorable industry background to support our estimated target price, coupled with the company's repeated expansion, is expected to achieve a stock appreciation of about 45 per cent over the next 12 months.

7. Information technology (High-tech index ETF-SPDR (XLK.US) $) and communication services ($Communications Services Select Industry Index ETF-SPDR (XLC.US) $)

1、$T-Mobile US (TMUS.US) $Target price: $175

With the acceleration of EBITDA growth, FCF growth and the launch of multi-year buyback programs, we believe that there is meaningful room for stock prices to rise.

2、$SBA Communications (SBAC.US) $Target price: $400

As a pure public tower operator, we believe the company is best suited for the upcoming 5G investment cycle.

3、$Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG.US) $Target price: $2800

Not only do we believe that BKNG can benefit from a sustained travel recovery, but we also believe that a greater focus on direct transportation and connected travel will potentially bring a tailwind to the rise in the company's share price.

4、$MYT Netherlands (MYTE.US) $Target price: $15

MYTE's goal is to create a wardrobe for high-net-worth individuals, who are generally more resilient to economic cycles, which should allow MYTE to grow better.

5、$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $Target price: $185

We predict that the company will sell about 235 million phones in FY22 and FY23, respectively, while revenue growth in services and wearable devices will significantly outpace iPhone's revenue growth in the coming years.

6、$Fox-A (FOXA.US) $Target price: $47

We think Fox is better positioned in traditional media networks because its strategic focus is on sports and news, while entertainment has the lowest exposure.

7、$Visa Inc (V.US) $Target price: $292

Based on 23 times our earnings per share for fiscal 23, we believe that the current valuation does not fully reflect Visa Inc's five-year growth potential and exaggerates the threat from online non-intermediaries and regulation.

8、$Micron Technology Inc (MU.US) $Target price: $120

We believe that the company has great potential for re-rating as fundamentals and cycles prove to be more lasting.

9、$CrowdStrike (CRWD.US) $Target price: $240

A strong execution record, an expanding core end market and undervalued profitability make us constructive about stocks.

Edit / irisz

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