1H22 gross profit margin increased by 5.5pct compared with the previous month. According to KuaiBao's estimate of the company's 2022 half-year results, ① 1H22's operating income fell 22.2% year-on-year in 27.65 billion, while gross profit margin increased by 5.5pct to 34.0% month-on-month. The net profit of returning to home decreased by 26.5% in 3.94 billion compared with the same period last year, while the net profit of 3.93 billion deducted from the same period of last year decreased by 25.4%. ② 2Q22's operating income fell 37.5% in 10.87 billion compared with the same period last year, and its net profit fell 45.2% in 1.37 billion compared with the same period last year. Its net interest rate was 12.6%, and its operating margin was 16.5%.
Baiyun rent supplement agreement smooth profit. China waived the signing of a supplementary operating cooperation agreement with Baiyun Airport in June 22, and the company expects that the new agreement will have a positive impact on the company's 22-year operating results. We estimate that under conservative circumstances, the rent calculated under the Baiyun Airport Supplementary Agreement is about 770 million lower than that calculated under the original agreement.
Affected by the minimum calculation period, monthly fluctuations and other factors, the actual rent may be different.
Policies help consumption, and the performance gradually recovers after the epidemic. The decline in performance was mainly affected by the multi-point distribution of the domestic epidemic. In the first half of the year, the number of outlying islands at Hainan Airport dropped by 37%, and the passenger flow of the company's duty-free stores dropped sharply compared with the same period last year. Shanghai temporarily closed its logistics outlets for 39 days. In June, the company's sales rose sharply from the previous month, with revenue up 13% from the same period last year. Hainan's daily sales exceeded 200 million on June 10, an eye-catching performance. From April to June, the duty-free sales of Hainan outlying islands were 2.23 billion yuan each, and the average daily sales in June increased by 46% compared with May. From June 25 to July 16, the duty-free shopping value of Hainan outlying islands increased by 5.14%. The average daily sales increased by 243%, 68%, 15%, respectively, compared with 4-5-6, and consumption gradually recovered. In order to further promote consumption, the Hainan provincial government added an additional 100 million yuan to continue to issue consumption coupons, and launched the second round of consumption coupons distribution activities of "helping businessmen and benefiting people and enjoying Hainan" during the Consumer Expo. According to the Hainan Provincial Department of Commerce, the sales of duty-free shops on Hainan outlying islands exceeded 200 million yuan on July 27 and 28, 2022, and on July 28, sales of 10 duty-free shops on Hainan outlying islands exceeded 212 million yuan, an increase of 48 percent over the same period last year. Of this total, duty-free sales exceeded 172 million yuan, an increase of 38 percent over the same period last year, and the number of duty-free purchases exceeded 28600, an increase of 11 percent over the same period last year.
Luzhou laojiao plans to subscribe for H shares of the company. On July 29, 22, Luzhou laojiao announced that it intends to invest US $80 million (including brokerage commissions, transaction fees and other related fees) as a cornerstone investor to subscribe for overseas listed foreign capital shares (H shares) issued by China Tourism Group China exemption Co., Ltd. Luzhou laojiao mainly deals in Luzhou-flavor liquor, and its single national cellar 1573 ranks firmly in the three major high-end liquor camps in China and has been stationed in the medium-free platform. We believe that this subscription shows Luzhou laojiao's recognition of the company's value. the two are expected to further expand online and offline multi-channel, multi-form in-depth cooperation.
Business at home and abroad is advancing steadily. Of the 10 duty-free shops in Hainan, 6 are exempt. In addition, the company's Haikou International duty-free city is expected to open before National Day 22, with a construction area of 289 thousand square meters, and the planned land area of Sanya Dian I and II under construction is 110,000 square meters. And continue to promote the construction of the second phase of the duty-free French garden complex and the third phase of the duty-free project at Fenghuang Airport. According to Chinanews.com, in July 2022, the Cambodian people's duty-free shopping policy was launched. according to the Cambodian Ministry of Finance and Economics and the General Administration of Customs, Cambodian and Puzhai compatriots can not leave the country and can buy duty-free goods in three duty-free shops in Cambodia. Including perfumes, cosmetics, watches, bags, clothing and other categories, more than 40 brands. Cambodians can buy products with a unit price of not less than US $50 and a duty-free shopping quota of US $10000 per person per year. We believe that the company's domestic and foreign business expansion is expected to bring new increments.
Growth is expected in the second half of the year and is optimistic about medium-and long-term space. The company Haikou International Duty Free City will be landed in 22 years, and the company expects that Sanya International Duty Free City Phase I and No. 2 will be landed in 2023. In mid-22, the company will once again launch China's Hong Kong listing and fund-raising to consolidate domestic channels and expand overseas channels. We believe that the tax-free consumer market in Hainan is expected to pick up in the second half of the year, and the company's share is expected to rise with the opening of new stores. In the long run, the general trend of the return of consumption and the improvement of the domestic epidemic situation is expected to help the company consolidate its leading position in tourism retail in the world, and its international influence is expected to be further expanded.
Update the profit forecast.
It is estimated that the revenue of 2022-24e company is 735 yuan, 1098 yuan and 147.6 billion yuan respectively, which is + 8.6%, 49.4% and 34.5% respectively compared with the same period last year. Among them, the revenue of stores in Sanya is 409,576 and 66.6 billion yuan respectively, which is + 15%, 41% and 16% respectively compared with the same period last year; the income of Haikou International duty-free city is 44,201 and 37.7 billion yuan respectively; and the income of Haijie Company is 111,133 and 15.3 billion yuan respectively; assuming that the international passenger flow at the airport in 24 years returns slightly to the level of 30% in 19 years, it is estimated that Shanghai will earn 132,144 and 20.1 billion yuan respectively from 22 to 24, and China will earn 21 yuan, 23 yuan and 4.5 billion yuan respectively.
Profit: ① gross profit margin: we expect the company's gross profit margin to continue to improve in 22-24, which is 33.7%, 35.6% and 35.8% respectively; ② expenses: we expect the company's 22-24 sales expense rate to be 9.4%, 10.1%, 12.2%, and management expense rate to be 4.3%, 3.9% and 3.9%, respectively.
To sum up, we expect the company's 22-24 net profit to be 92.2 yuan, 151.1 yuan and 18.46 billion yuan respectively, which is-4.5%, + 64.0% and + 22.2% respectively compared with the same period last year, and the corresponding EPS is 4.72,7.74,9.46 yuan per share respectively.
Baiyun rent supplement agreement smooth profit. China waived the signing of a supplementary operating cooperation agreement with Baiyun Airport in June 22, and the company expects that the new agreement will have a positive impact on the company's 22-year operating results. We estimate that under conservative circumstances, the rent calculated under the Baiyun Airport Supplementary Agreement is about 770 million lower than that calculated under the original agreement.
Affected by the minimum calculation period, monthly fluctuations and other factors, the actual rent may be different.
Policies help consumption, and the performance gradually recovers after the epidemic. The decline in performance was mainly affected by the multi-point distribution of the domestic epidemic. In the first half of the year, the number of outlying islands at Hainan Airport dropped by 37%, and the passenger flow of the company's duty-free stores dropped sharply compared with the same period last year. Shanghai temporarily closed its logistics outlets for 39 days. In June, the company's sales rose sharply from the previous month, with revenue up 13% from the same period last year. Hainan's daily sales exceeded 200 million on June 10, an eye-catching performance. From April to June, the duty-free sales of Hainan outlying islands were 2.23 billion yuan each, and the average daily sales in June increased by 46% compared with May. From June 25 to July 16, the duty-free shopping value of Hainan outlying islands increased by 5.14%. The average daily sales increased by 243%, 68%, 15%, respectively, compared with 4-5-6, and consumption gradually recovered. In order to further promote consumption, the Hainan provincial government added an additional 100 million yuan to continue to issue consumption coupons, and launched the second round of consumption coupons distribution activities of "helping businessmen and benefiting people and enjoying Hainan" during the Consumer Expo. According to the Hainan Provincial Department of Commerce, the sales of duty-free shops on Hainan outlying islands exceeded 200 million yuan on July 27 and 28, 2022, and on July 28, sales of 10 duty-free shops on Hainan outlying islands exceeded 212 million yuan, an increase of 48 percent over the same period last year. Of this total, duty-free sales exceeded 172 million yuan, an increase of 38 percent over the same period last year, and the number of duty-free purchases exceeded 28600, an increase of 11 percent over the same period last year.
Luzhou laojiao plans to subscribe for H shares of the company. On July 29, 22, Luzhou laojiao announced that it intends to invest US $80 million (including brokerage commissions, transaction fees and other related fees) as a cornerstone investor to subscribe for overseas listed foreign capital shares (H shares) issued by China Tourism Group China exemption Co., Ltd. Luzhou laojiao mainly deals in Luzhou-flavor liquor, and its single national cellar 1573 ranks firmly in the three major high-end liquor camps in China and has been stationed in the medium-free platform. We believe that this subscription shows Luzhou laojiao's recognition of the company's value. the two are expected to further expand online and offline multi-channel, multi-form in-depth cooperation.
Business at home and abroad is advancing steadily. Of the 10 duty-free shops in Hainan, 6 are exempt. In addition, the company's Haikou International duty-free city is expected to open before National Day 22, with a construction area of 289 thousand square meters, and the planned land area of Sanya Dian I and II under construction is 110,000 square meters. And continue to promote the construction of the second phase of the duty-free French garden complex and the third phase of the duty-free project at Fenghuang Airport. According to Chinanews.com, in July 2022, the Cambodian people's duty-free shopping policy was launched. according to the Cambodian Ministry of Finance and Economics and the General Administration of Customs, Cambodian and Puzhai compatriots can not leave the country and can buy duty-free goods in three duty-free shops in Cambodia. Including perfumes, cosmetics, watches, bags, clothing and other categories, more than 40 brands. Cambodians can buy products with a unit price of not less than US $50 and a duty-free shopping quota of US $10000 per person per year. We believe that the company's domestic and foreign business expansion is expected to bring new increments.
Growth is expected in the second half of the year and is optimistic about medium-and long-term space. The company Haikou International Duty Free City will be landed in 22 years, and the company expects that Sanya International Duty Free City Phase I and No. 2 will be landed in 2023. In mid-22, the company will once again launch China's Hong Kong listing and fund-raising to consolidate domestic channels and expand overseas channels. We believe that the tax-free consumer market in Hainan is expected to pick up in the second half of the year, and the company's share is expected to rise with the opening of new stores. In the long run, the general trend of the return of consumption and the improvement of the domestic epidemic situation is expected to help the company consolidate its leading position in tourism retail in the world, and its international influence is expected to be further expanded.
Update the profit forecast.
It is estimated that the revenue of 2022-24e company is 735 yuan, 1098 yuan and 147.6 billion yuan respectively, which is + 8.6%, 49.4% and 34.5% respectively compared with the same period last year. Among them, the revenue of stores in Sanya is 409,576 and 66.6 billion yuan respectively, which is + 15%, 41% and 16% respectively compared with the same period last year; the income of Haikou International duty-free city is 44,201 and 37.7 billion yuan respectively; and the income of Haijie Company is 111,133 and 15.3 billion yuan respectively; assuming that the international passenger flow at the airport in 24 years returns slightly to the level of 30% in 19 years, it is estimated that Shanghai will earn 132,144 and 20.1 billion yuan respectively from 22 to 24, and China will earn 21 yuan, 23 yuan and 4.5 billion yuan respectively.
Profit: ① gross profit margin: we expect the company's gross profit margin to continue to improve in 22-24, which is 33.7%, 35.6% and 35.8% respectively; ② expenses: we expect the company's 22-24 sales expense rate to be 9.4%, 10.1%, 12.2%, and management expense rate to be 4.3%, 3.9% and 3.9%, respectively.
To sum up, we expect the company's 22-24 net profit to be 92.2 yuan, 151.1 yuan and 18.46 billion yuan respectively, which is-4.5%, + 64.0% and + 22.2% respectively compared with the same period last year, and the corresponding EPS is 4.72,7.74,9.46 yuan per share respectively.