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美团成南下“金矿”,中金:公募基金是未来南向资金流入主力

Meituan has become a “gold mine” going south. CICC: Public funds will be the main source of southbound capital inflows in the future

Zhitong Finance ·  Jul 29, 2022 15:45

Source: Zhitong Finance and Economics

Author: Chu Yunwei

As the Hang Seng Index bottomed out and rebounded, after four consecutive quarters of decline, the market value of positions in Chinese and Hong Kong stocks and their share of the total market capitalization of public offering funds increased significantly in the second quarter.In the second quarter, southward funds mainly increased positions in Hong Kong stocks in the Internet, sportswear and new energy vehicles, and reduced positions in Hong Kong stocks in clean energy.$Meituan-W (03690.HK) $Transcend$Tencent (00700.HK) $Become the key target of "Nuggets".

Although the rate of issuance of public offering funds that can invest in Hong Kong stocks through Hong Kong Stock Connect in the second quarter is still low, from the perspective of the overall positionPublic offering funds have begun to increase their holdings of Hong Kong stocks, and the concentration of their holdings has increased significantly.

Data show that as of 22Q2 active partial stock fund heavy positions in Hong Kong shares accounted for 8.0% of the market value, compared with the 22Q1 month-on-month slightly increased 1.1%. From the perspective of shareholding concentration, the proportion of the top 10 / top 20 heavy positions in 22Q2 active partial stock funds is 58.8% and 74.8% respectively, which is 5.5% higher than that of 22Q1, and the concentration of positions is significantly higher.

In fact,Although Hong Kong stocks have fluctuated greatly since the beginning of the year, southbound capital has maintained an overall inflow trend.With a cumulative inflow of 175.5 billion yuan. Regarding the situation in the second half of the year, China International Capital Corporation analyzed and saidThe comparative valuation advantage of Hong Kong stocks and the relatively loose liquidity environment in China as a whole are still expected to support continued southbound capital inflows.

Public offering "bosses" have added Cang Meituan and Kuaishou Technology.

In the second quarter, public offering funds took the initiative to increase their positions in Hong Kong stocks.CICC data show that according to the summary data of positions disclosed in the fund's second quarterly report, 2443 stocks can be invested in Hong Kong stocks.The market value of Hong Kong stocks held by mainland public offering funds is 404.2 billion RMB.Compared with the first quarterGrowth of 27%, reversing the downward trend since the third quarter of 2021Close to 2021Level in the third quarter of 2000. In terms of proportion, Hong Kong stocks accounted for 12.1% of the fund's total assets and 17.1% of the total stock market value in the second quarter, an increase of 1.9 percentage points over 1Q22's 15.2%.

Configuration quantityIn the second quarter, public offering funds held a total of 658 Hong Kong stocks, an increase of 101 over the previous period, an increase of nearly 20%. Among them, Meituan-W and Tencent were held by 281,185 public funds respectively, while Meituan nearly doubled the number of funds held in the first quarter. In addition$Kuaishou Technology-W (01024.HK) $$Wuxi Biologics (02269.HK) $$Li Ning Co. Ltd. (02331.HK) $Hong Kong stocks are also held by a number of public funds, which are held by 92, 85 and 79 public funds respectively.

Configuration scaleIn terms of the second quarter, public offering funds held more than 20 billion yuan of shares in both Meituan and Tencent.Among them, Meituan was held 32.9 billion yuan, which has nearly doubled the market value of the previous period.The total market value of Tencent's holdings was 20.747 billion yuan, down slightly from 20.858 billion yuan in the first quarter. In addition, Li Ning Co. Ltd., Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, Wuxi Biologics and other Hong Kong stocks have also been held by public funds on a large scale.

The ratio of the market value of shareholding to the market value of fund stock investmentLet's see.Meituan-W surpassed Tencent to become a proper "one". In the second quarter, Meituan's shareholding market value accounted for 0.95% of the fund's stock investment market value, an increase of 0.41% over the previous quarter, while Tencent's share was basically the same as in the first quarter, slightly declining.

Increase or decrease the number of positionsLet's see.$CNOOC Limited (00883.HK) $Get the most increase in holdingsAn increase of 161 million shares over the end of the previous quarter, whileChina Electric Power (02380.HK) $Was reduced by 49.7442 million shares.. For Meituan and Tencent, both IT stocks, compared with the first quarter, Meituan-W's total shareholding increased by 64.5262 million shares to 199 million shares, while Tencent suffered a slight reduction, reducing 276500 shares to 68.4536 million shares.

Overall, the information technology sector is still the favorite sector for public offering funds to buy southward.During the second quarter, with the changes in relevant regulatory policies, Hong Kong technology stocks represented by Meituan and Kuaishou Technology were widely favored by investors.

During the second quarter, Meituan became a key target for the southward "Nuggets" of public offerings, with both the number of public funds holding positions and the market value of their positions nearly double that of the previous period.Ruiyuan Fund, Eastern Securities Asset Management, Jingshun Great Wall Fund, Huitianfu Fund and other well-known public offerings have significantly increased their holdings of Meituan. Hu Xinwei and Zhao Feng are firmly optimistic about Meituan in the quarterly report. Meituan accounted for an increase in the heavy positions of star managers such as Wang Zonghe, Chen Hao and Xiao Nan.

At the same time, Hong Kong stock giant Tencent has not changed much from the previous quarter in terms of the number of public offering funds or the market value of his positions.And the preference of fund managers for Tencent no longer seems to be.If Liu Yanchun grew up in Jingshun Great Wall Jiying for two years, there was no Tencent in the top ten positions newly disclosed.

This is the first time that Tencent has fallen out of the top 10 positions of the fund since 2020. Zhou Weiwen has been in charge of CEIBS ingenuity for two years, and Tencent was also the largest stock in the fund in the first quarter of this year, and after the disclosure of the second quarterly report, Tencent has disappeared from the list of the top 10 stocks in the fund.

Increased holdings of Hong Kong stocks on the Internet, reduced holdings of clean energy, Tsing Tao Beer newly entered Hong Kong stocks with a heavy position in TOP10

From the perspective of major industries, in the second quarter, public offering funds increased the consumption and manufacturing of Hong Kong stocks, and reduced the positions of Hong Kong stocks in energy materials, technology and financial real estate.CICC data show that 22Q2 Hong Kong consumer stocks excluding the impact of the share price after the increase of 7.2 percent, manufacturing sector for 0.5 percent; 22Q2 Hong Kong energy and materials stocks excluding the impact of share prices after the reduction of 3.5 percent, technology sector 2.7 percent, financial and real estate sector 1.5 percent.

From the concept plate point of view, in the second quarter, public offering funds mainly increased positions in Hong Kong stocks of the Internet, sportswear and new energy vehicle plate, and reduced positions in Hong Kong stocks of clean energy.In the second quarter, the fund mainly increased its positions in the Internet sector, among which the takeout platform was the leader.Meituan-WIt is the main target for increasing positions, for short video companies.Kuaishou Technology-WThe increase in holdings is also obvious, such asIn the second quarter of Qiu Dongrong's representative work, Kuaishou Technology-W accounted for 9.88% of the net worth of individual shares, the second largest.$Haier Smart Home (06690.HK) $, only 5.42%.

In the second quarter, public offering funds also increased their positions.Sportswear plateThe main person who increased the position was Li Ning Co. Ltd.The new energy vehicle plate mainly increases the position and builds the new force., including Li Auto Inc.-W and XPeng Inc.-W. It is worth noting that$Li Auto Inc.-W (02015.HK) $It may increase its holdings by 21.8274 million shares in the second quarter, bringing the total holdings to 21.83 million shares, up 1213 places from the ranking of heavy positions in the first quarter.

The clean energy sector has been reduced.The main sellers are downstream power operation companies China Longyuan Power Group Corporation and China Resources Power Holdings, as well as upstream photovoltaic glass manufacturers$Xinyi Solar (00968.HK) $

In additionThe adjustment of positions and shares in the non-essential consumer sector of Hong Kong stocks is also very active.$Fuyao Glass Industry Group (03606.HK) $$Xtep International (01368.HK) $$China Literature (00772.HK) $Wait for the increase of holdings$Great Wall Motor (02333.HK) $$Geely Automobile (00175.HK) $$China Resources Beer (00291.HK) $And so on, the holdings are reduced.

Compared with the increase in the proportion of the old economy in the first quarter, the new economy was favored again in the second quarter, especially in retail, cars, consumer durables and medicine.The new economy accounted for 66.7% of 1Q22, rising significantly to 73.3%, which was consistent with the better performance of the overall new economy sector in the second quarter, especially retail, cars, consumer durables and medical equipment. On the contrary, media entertainment, telecommunications, comprehensive finance and energy declined the most.

Specific to individual stocks, Meituan, Li Ning Co. Ltd., Wuxi Biologics, ideal and Kuaishou Technology were the stocks with the largest increase in holdings and southward capital inflows in the second quarter.Meituan 、 Tencent 、 Li Ning Co. Ltd. 、$Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388.HK) $Leaders such as Wuxi Biologics and others are still in a heavy position in the second quarter.Tsing Tao Beer added heavy positions, while China Electric Power (02380) fell out of the top 10 stocks.In addition, the concentration of the head was improved. The top 10 companies accounted for 61.3 per cent of the market capitalization of the top 100 Hong Kong stocks (57.3 per cent in the first quarter); the top three accounted for 35.4 per cent, up from 33.3 per cent of 1Q22.

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Qiu Dongrong: Hong Kong stocks are cheap! CICC expects public offering funds to be the main force of southward capital inflows in the future.

In the second quarter, Xie Zhiyu, Zhang Kun, Qiu Dongrong and other star fund managers made a large increase in Hong Kong stocks in the second quarter.

Lu Bin is quite optimistic about the investment opportunities of Hong Kong stocks.He analyzed in the second quarterly report thatAt present, the risk premium of Hong Kong stocks is attractive, and many industries and quality companies are expected to usher in a fundamental inflection point."optimistic about the future performance of Hong Kong stocks, especially after the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, it will consider timely increasing its positions in Hong Kong stocks in the light of the actual situation".

In Lu Bin's new product HSBC Jinxin Research selected Quarterly reportMeituan-W(03690)、 CNOOC Limited(00883)It appeared in the heavy stocks, and in addition to continuing to hold the above-mentioned companies in the second quarter, he alsoNew entrant Kuaishou Technology-W(01024)These three stocks also appeared in Qiu Dongrong's heavy stocks.

Qiu Dongrong, who made full profits from the allocation of Hong Kong stocks in the second quarter, also made it clear in the quarterly report thatBe optimistic about the value stocks, some Internet stocks and pharmaceutical technology growth stocks represented by resources and energy in Hong Kong stocks.There are three reasons:The valuation is cheap; the operation is sound and the beneficial fundamentals continue to improve; policy expectations are improved and liquidity risk is relatively immune.

He explained: "in the basic face of weak reality and liquidity suppression, Hong Kong stocks have not rebounded with A shares, only technology Internet stocks with policy relief have performed, and the overall valuation level of Hong Kong stocks is still absolutely low. The value stocks of Hong Kong stocks are cheaper than their A-shares, and the corresponding dividend yield is higher.

He thinksGrowth stocks represented by the Internet, science and technology, and medicine have cheap valuations.To maintain a fairly attractive levelGrowth companies of APIs and consumers, valuationMuch lower than A sharesThe business model is simpler and better, and the business is solid.

The second quarterly report showsThe total scale of the four products managed by Qiu Dongrong increased by 8.863 billion yuan to 29.201 billion yuan compared with the end of the first quarter. Among them, value navigation and value quality have made a great contribution in one year.The yield in the first half of the year was 13.48% and 15.84% respectively, and the scale of the former directly increased from 7.963 billion yuan at the end of the first quarter to 15.475 billion yuan, nearly doubling the growth rate.And there are many Hong Kong stocks in the list of the top 10 stocks of these two funds.

China International Capital Corporation analyzed and saidThe comparative valuation advantage of Hong Kong stocks and the relatively loose liquidity environment in China as a whole are still expected to support continued southbound capital inflows.It is expected that southbound funds may still be the main driving force of the Hong Kong stock market for some time to come, and public offering funds are an important part of them.

In terms of allocation, China International Capital Corporation believes that it may be a better choice to seek certainty and high-quality targets, such as high-dividend stocks and high-quality growth stocks. Earnings growth is more certain (such as some cars, pharmaceuticals and part of the Internet, etc.) or sectors that are expected to improve in the future (middle and lower reaches of consumption, public utilities) are worthy of attention.

Wei Fengchun, the Chuangjin Hexin Fund, said that short-term Hong Kong stocks were adjusted by real estate shocks and overseas fluctuations, with a small inflow of funds to the south. The Hang Seng Index forecasts PB at 0.82x, at 1.3 per cent of the quantile level since 2014, and valuations remain attractive. He thinksIt may be larger for Hong Kong stocks to follow A shares to bottom again in the short term, but the undervalued characteristic defense attribute is prominent, so it is suggested that we should seize the allocation opportunity in the fluctuation.

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