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美股前瞻 | 美国GDP连续第二个季度录得负值,进入“技术性衰退”

US stock outlook | US GDP recorded a negative value for the second consecutive quarter, entering a “technical recession”

Futu News ·  Jul 28, 2022 20:41

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Global macro

  • The futures of the three major US stock indexes fell before Thursday's trading.

In the United States, the actual annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value of GDP in the second quarter was-0.9%, the expected value was 0.4%, and the previous value was-1.6%, which was the second consecutive quarter of negative value, entering a "technical recession."

Agencies review the U. S. second-quarter GDP data: GDP fell for the second consecutive quarter in line with the standard definition of a technical recession. But the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of the US recession, defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity throughout the economy for more than several months, usually seen in production, employment, real income and other indicators. In the first half of this year, employment grew by an average of 456700 per month, which led to strong wage growth, but the risk of an economic downturn has increased. In recent months, home construction and home sales have been weak, and business and consumer confidence has also weakened.

  • Us Congress: the US economy is full of uncertainty in the next 30 years, with debt reaching 185 per cent of GDP

On the 27th local time, the Congressional Budget Office said that the US federal debt will reach 185% of GDP by 2052, which means that the US economy will be full of uncertainty in the next 30 years. America's rising debt could have very serious economic consequences, slowing economic growth, increasing the risk of a fiscal crisis, and making the economy more vulnerable to higher interest rates.

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  • If you raise interest rates again, it will get cold! Us Senator Warren: the Fed is so aggressive that it could lead to a devastating recession

Democratic Senator Warren said on Wednesday that the Fed's rapid rate hike this year would not only put the US economy at risk of a devastating recession, but may also fail to contain persistently high inflation. Warren pointed out that "raising interest rates will not solve anything", and she added that Powell had "admitted" this in her congressional testimony. "if raising interest rates doesn't help lower a lot of prices in our economy, what it can actually do is plunge the economy into recession," she added. So I think this is something that the Fed should consider, and I think they should ease this aggressive attack. "

  • The Federal Reserve set off another wave of global interest rate hikes: multinational rush, collective interest rate hikes in the Gulf countries

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points overnight, and as currencies in many countries and regions are pegged to the dollar, most of these central banks follow the Fed in raising interest rates. Before and after the Fed raised interest rates this time, the European Central Bank took the lead in raising interest rates by 50 basis points to steal away from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada also unexpectedly raised interest rates by 100 basis points, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority of China followed the Federal Reserve by raising benchmark interest rates by 75 basis points. most Gulf countries have also chosen to raise interest rates to varying degrees, and Argentina has sharply raised short-note interest rates.

  • Us senators have reached a breakthrough agreement, including the electric vehicle consumption tax credit sought by Tesla, Inc. and others.

The breakthrough deal reached by US senators Chuck Schumer and Joe Manchin included an extension of the consumption tax credit for electric car purchases, with major victories for electric carmakers such as General Motors Co, Tesla, Inc. and Toyota Motor Corp. This credit is included in a broader package of legislation. The package of legislation restores a key part of President Joe Biden's domestic agenda, including about $369 billion in climate and energy spending. Carmakers will continue to be able to provide a $7500 tax credit for new "clean cars".

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  • G7 plans to impose price restrictions on Russian oil exports before December 5: in step with EU sanctions

On July 27, local time, a senior G7 official said that the G7 plans to establish a price cap mechanism for Russian oil exports by December 5 this year, when EU sanctions banning imports of Russian crude oil from sea will come into effect. "our goal is to keep pace with the EU," the official said on condition of anonymity. We hope that when the EU imposes sanctions, the price cap mechanism [for Russian oil exports] will come into effect at the same time. "

  • World Health Organization (WHO): more than 18000 monkeypox cases have been reported worldwide

More than 18000 monkeypox cases have been reported in 78 countries and regions around the world, most of them in Europe, the World Health Organization said Monday. World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tan Desai said at a news conference at the Swiss headquarters in Geneva that more than 70 per cent of the reported cases were in Europe and 25 per cent in the Americas; about 10 per cent were hospitalized for treatment; and five deaths have been reported so far.

Hot news

  • Star technology stocks fell before the market.

  • Meta fell by more than 4% before trading. Q2 performance and guidance were lower than expected.

$Meta Platforms (META.US) $ Second-quarter operating income was 28.822 billion US dollars, down 0.88 percent from the second quarter of last year, and revenue fell for the first time in Meta's history compared with the same period last year. Second-quarter net profit was 6.687 billion US dollars, down 14.8 percent from the same period last year, breaking the lowest level set in the first quarter since the second quarter of 2020. In terms of performance guidance, the company's overall operating revenue in the third quarter is expected to be between $26 billion and $28.5 billion, equivalent to a year-on-year decline of 0.79 to 8 per cent. As of press time, Meta was down more than 4% before trading.

  • Pfizer Inc's second-quarter revenue is 27.7 billion US dollars, with an estimate of 26.31 billion US dollars.

$Pfizer Inc (PFE.US) $Second-quarter revenue of $27.7 billion, estimated at $26.31 billion; second-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.04, estimated at $1.81; still forecast full-year revenue of $98 billion to $102 billion, compared with market estimates of $103.44 billion; and projected full-year adjusted earnings per share of $6.30 to $6.45.

  • Ford Motor rose nearly 7% before trading, and the performance of Magi Q2 exceeded expectations, and the dividend increased by 50%.

$Ford Motor (F.US) $Q2 had revenue of $40.2 billion, of which auto revenue was $37.91 billion, exceeding market expectations of $34.32 billion; earnings per share were $0.68 and market expectations were $0.45. The company forecasts full-year adjusted EBIT of $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion. The company also raised its dividend by 50%. As of press time, Ford was up nearly 7% before trading.

  • Gao Tong fell by more than 3% before trading, and the revenue guidance was lower than expected.

$Qualcomm Inc (QCOM.US) $Adjusted revenue for the third quarter was $10.93 billion, estimated at $10.87 billion, and adjusted earnings per share was $2.96, or $2.86 per share. Qualcomm Inc expects revenue in the fourth quarter to be between $110 and $11.8 billion, while analysts expect an average of $11.9 billion. As of press time, Gao Tong fell by more than 3%.

  • Inflation is fierce and demand is weakening! Best Buy, the largest consumer electronics retailer in the United States, cuts its performance forecast

Best Buy (BBY.US) $released its latest earnings guidance on Wednesday local time. Affected by inflation, the company cut its earnings guidance and expects same-store sales to fall by about 13% in the second quarter, down from its May forecast (down 8%). Same-store sales have also been cut this fiscal year and are now expected to fall 11 per cent, further expanding from the 3 per cent decline forecast in may. The companyIt also said it would suspend share buybacks, but would continue to pay quarterly dividends. As of press time, Best Buy was down more than 4% before trading.

  • FTC seeks to block Meta's acquisition of VR Within Unlimited

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is seeking to stop$Meta Platforms (META.US) $Acquisition of Within Unlimited Inc. And its virtual reality dedicated fitness application Supernatural. Meta, formerly Facebook Inc, is already an important player in all levels of virtual reality, FTC said on Wednesday. The agency alleges that Meta CEO Zuckerberg is planning to expand Meta's virtual reality empire by acquiring the fitness app, which will reduce market competition and violate antitrust laws.

  • Rio Tinto PLC is expected to unlock another big project: the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea.

The world's largest iron ore producer $Rio Tinto PLC (RIO.US) $said on Wednesday (27th) that it has formed a joint venture with the Guinean government and the Simandou win Alliance (Winning Consortium Simandou) to develop infrastructure such as railway ports for local iron ore, a development that will help Rio Tinto PLC and others jointly develop the world's largest untapped iron ore deposit project, Simandou.

  • A key bill in the United States proposes to allocate 369 billion US dollars to subsidize clean energy, and solar energy stocks strengthen before the market.

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer and Democratic Senator Joe Manchin unexpectedly agreed on a key bill called the 2022 inflation reduction Act on Wednesday Eastern time.The key bill plans to allocate hundreds of billions of dollars to speed up the production of clean energy facilities such as electric cars, solar panels and wind turbines, and to provide tax breaks for consumers to buy electric cars.

Focus on China-listed stocks

  • Most of the hot Chinese stocks fell before the day.

  • Missfresh Limited responded to "dissolution": some employees left due to business adjustment.

There is news today that$Missfresh Limited (MF.US) $The financing failed to be delivered successfully and the company was dissolved. In response, Missfresh Limited staff responded that the company adjusted its business and organization under the big goal of making a profit. Business such as Dada the next day, Wisdom Market and Retail Cloud will not be affected. Due to the business adjustment and the departure of some employees, the company is actively looking for all possible plans to maximize the protection of employees' rights and interests.

Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20

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