The layout of the industrial chain is becoming more and more perfect, cut into the lithium diaphragm market at the right time, and the three major businesses are neck and neck with the company to speed up the iterative upgrading of color masterbatch products, and will continue to become bigger and stronger. Cyanuric chloride business scale is the world's leading, with the impact of the Xiangshui incident to eliminate the epidemic situation gradually improved, downstream agricultural production to provide stable demand, high industry access, scarce production licenses, fewer market players, limited supply, business is expected to usher in both volume and price rise. In 2017, the company cut into the diaphragm track, capacity release is imminent, will continue to increase investment, impact the first echelon ranks.
Deep accumulation to break through the barriers of the diaphragm industry, capacity expansion is just around the corner, performance is expected to quickly release the company with its outstanding comprehensive strength to build strong competitiveness, long-term and deep cooperation with Toshiba to protect equipment expansion, master 5/7/9/12um high-end diaphragm manufacturing process, low asset-liability ratio, strong refinancing ability of abundant cash flow, and continue to expand head customers. At present, 150 million square diaphragm production capacity has been put into production, and another 150 million square production capacity is expected to be put into production in the near future. 600 million square meters of production capacity may be added in 2023, and the long-term plan may exceed 1.5 billion square meters, and new entrants will further seize the share. Diaphragm supply and demand market continues to speed up production capacity construction to form an effective supply, performance is expected to be released quickly.
The cost control is excellent, the speed breadth and good rate of the new equipment is improved, and the coating further reduces the cost and increases the profit and elasticity of the fixed asset cost: compared with the initial scheduled delivery, the company's unit capacity investment is significantly lower, and the depreciation cost per unit product is effectively reduced; factors of production: the cost of steam is lower and the processing cost is effectively reduced. Due to the early scheduled period of the company's current application equipment, although the production capacity, speed and width of the per unit production line have been improved through technical transformation, they are still limited by the early stage of the equipment; with the upgrading of products, with the follow-up application of new equipment, and the gradual improvement of operating parameters after large-scale mass production, each index has room for significant improvement. It is planned that the width of the new production line may be increased to 5.5m, the speed will be further increased to 80 or 100 m/min, and the operating cost may be reduced to 0.71 yuan per square meter, corresponding to a cost reduction of 0.53 yuan per square meter, up to 42% and 0.53 yuan, which will effectively improve the profitability.
Investment suggestion
The company's 22-23-24 homing net profit is expected to be 3.3 million yuan, 5.2 million yuan, and 770 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to 35x/24x/17x E, giving a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk hint
The development of new energy vehicles is not as expected; the development of capacity expansion products is not as expected; material price fluctuations and so on.