Event
Dale new materials issued a 2022H1 performance forecast, it is estimated that 2022H1 return net profit of 39.5 million yuan to 43.5 million yuan, net profit loss of 16.9088 million yuan in the same period last year, reversing losses compared with the same period last year; deducting non-net profit of 37.9 million yuan to 41.5 million yuan, net profit loss of 18.866 million yuan in the same period last year, achieving a year-on-year reversal of losses.
Main points of investment
Performance slightly exceeded expectations, profitability further improved
The company's 2022H1 performance rose sharply, turning losses into profits compared with the same period last year. Among them, the net profit of 2022Q2 is about 2599-29.99 million yuan, an increase of about 92.38% 121.98% compared with the previous month. The performance slightly exceeded expectations, mainly due to the company's full orders, the continuous release of production capacity, the substantial increase in production and sales of major products over the same period, and the effective control of costs due to the gradual emergence of economies of scale. We expect the company's photovoltaic Kumgang line to ship at 300-3.5 million km, and its profitability will be further improved compared with the first quarter.
The downstream demand is higher than expected, the diamond line industry has ushered in a high business cycle since 2022 due to the impact of the European energy crisis and India's rush to install, photovoltaic downstream demand is higher than expected, superimposed with the additional growth rate brought about by the thinning and thinning of the diamond line, the diamond line industry ushered in a high business cycle. Since the beginning of the year, most enterprises have maintained a high operating rate, and the price decline is relatively small.
Capacity continues to be released, economies of scale improve profitability
Since the company's production capacity reached 1 million km / month in March this year, its production capacity has continued to increase, and it is expected that it will reach 1.4 million km / month in July. At the same time, the verification of the 20-line machine has been completed, and it will be invested in batches month by month in the second half of the year, and the equipment with a capacity of 3 million km / month will be completed by the end of the year. It is expected that the capacity will be released at more than 2 million km / month by the end of the year. We expect that if we expand production as planned, economies of scale will continue to drive the company to reduce costs, thereby continuing to improve the company's profitability.
Profit forecast
In view of the rapid improvement in the company's profitability and the gradual release of production capacity, we raise our profit forecast for the company. We forecast that the company's income from 2022 to 2024 will be 8.12 shock 13.88 yuan / 1.939 billion yuan (the previous value is 6.7 shock 12.0 yuan / 1.64 billion yuan respectively), the EPS will be divided into 1.10 pound 2.03 shock 3.30 yuan (the previous value is 0.73 shock 1.42 shock 2.01 yuan respectively), and the current share price will be 31 times, 17 times and 10 times PE, respectively, and continue to maintain the "recommended" investment rating.
Risk hint
The photovoltaic installation is not up to expectations, the production expansion of the diamond line is not up to expectations, the price of the diamond line is falling, the price of the big goods is rising, and so on.
