Purchase analysis:
1. The issuance size of Huaxiang convertible bonds is 800 million yuan, and the debt and main body rating is AA-/AA-; the conversion share price is 12.99 yuan, and the conversion value is 99.62 yuan as of December 17, 2021; the arithmetic average of each year's coupon is 1.50 yuan, and the maturity compensation interest rate is 15%, which belongs to the general level of newly issued convertible bonds. According to the discount rate of 6.70% maturity yield of 6-year AA- bond enterprises on December 17, 2021, the bottom of the debt is 84.66 yuan, and the value of the pure debt is average. Other game provisions are market-oriented terms, if all the conversion of the dilution pressure on the total equity is 14.12%, the dilution pressure on the circulating equity is 40.03%, there is a certain dilution pressure on the existing equity.
two。 As of December 17, 2021, the top three shareholders of the company, Shanxi Linfen Huaxiang Industrial Co., Ltd., Shanxi Transportation Development Investment Group Co., Ltd., and Guangzhou Wanbao Changrui Investment Co., Ltd., respectively, accounted for 62.17%, 10.40% and 4.00% of the total share capital, respectively. The controlling shareholder did not promise priority placement. According to the current market income and environment, the size of the first day placement is expected to be about 58%. The remaining amount of new debt applied for online is 336 million yuan, because the upper limit for individual household purchase is 1 million yuan. Assuming that the number of online purchase accounts is between 95 and 10.5 million, the success rate is expected to be around 0.0032%.
3. The company is in the industry of household appliance parts (Shenwan III). From the perspective of valuation, as of December 17, 2021, the company's PE (TTM) is 15.68 times, which is higher than the industry average among the 10 enterprises with similar income, with a market capitalization of 5.643 billion yuan, which is lower than the industry average. As of December 17, 2021, the company's stock has risen 15.09% so far this year, while the industry index has risen 23.28% over the same period, and Wandequan A has risen 8.92%. Since listing, the annualized volatility of share price and return is 52.23%, and the stock is more flexible. At present, the proportion of equity pledge is 24.15%, and the equity has a certain pledge risk. Other risk points: 1. Risk of price fluctuation of raw materials; 2. The risk of economic environment uncertainty; 3. Market competition risk; 4. The risk of customer concentration is high.
4. The scale of Huaxiang convertible bonds is general, the debt bottom protection is general, the parity is lower than the face value, the market may give a 25% premium, the listing price is expected to be about 125 yuan, it is recommended to actively participate in the purchase of new bonds.
Risk hints: the risk of default, the risk that the price of convertible bonds fluctuates or even falls below par value, the risk that convertible bonds cannot be converted into shares at maturity, the risk of diluting earnings per share and return on net assets, the related risks of this convertible bond into equity, the risk of credit rating change, the risk of fluctuation of positive shares, and the premium of listed earnings is lower than expected.