Edited by Haitong: "Communication Industry Research Framework training"
It is better to teach people to fish than to teach people to fish. Fu Tu Research has specially launched a series of articles on the research framework, which aims to work with investors."correct research ideas, understand the nature of the market, and seize investment opportunities".This paper is the third part of the research framework series-understanding the communications industry before the advent of the 5G market.
1. Communication industry structure
Basic industry chain architecture
Current Industrial stage-- 4G Traffic dividend period
Starting with the construction of 4G in 2013, the track comparison is: CDN > data center > optical module > equipment.
Future industrial opportunities
In the post-4G era, the industry structure is closer to the North American cloud track.North American Cloud Computing track comparison: cloud Services > Cloud Computing Network equipment > = Optical Module > IDC=CDN.
Facing the 5G era, the application side excavates the moderate traffic to the heavy traffic, and the terminal side optics and radio frequency new opportunities.
2. Industry analysis
5G industry chain: focus on network equipment, optical modules, terminal RF devices
Investment schedule of 5G industry chain: 18H2 focuses on the equipment side, and the supporting direction of the base station side in 19 years is more flexible.
From the perspective of industry segmentation, first of all, the core driving force of 5G investment by operators such as China Telecom Corporation, China Unicom and China change is still in the data traffic business.
Secondly, the share of the global telecom equipment market will be increasingly concentrated, and Huawei and ZTE will gradually expand their leading edge.
Third, as far as the optical module industry is concerned, the global share of China's leading enterprises will increase significantly. The representative companies of high-speed laser & silicon include Optical Technology, Huawei Haisi, ZTE Microelectronics (Changsha), and electric chips represented by Feihang Communications.
Fourth, in terms of smart terminals, Huawei will continue to take the lead in domestic smartphones, increasing its global market share.
At present, only Huawei releases 5G chips for CPE terminals. ZTE expects to launch 5G terminal chips at the end of 18 / early 19. The progress of 5G smartphones in other Chinese smartphone companies depends on the release progress of 5G chips in chip companies headed by Qualcomm Inc.
Sixth, the focus of RF front-end devices is the filter, which is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 21% from 2016 to 2020. At present, the United States and Japan almost monopolize the filter market, but domestic enterprises have actively participated in the layout.
Cloud computing: track mastery of cloud computing services, IDC, cloud computing network equipment (and high-speed optical modules)
With the continuous maturity of cloud computing technology, according to Gartner, the overall market size of cloud computing is expected to increase rapidly from $52.2 billion in 2015 to $143.5 billion in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 22%.
In the next 2 years, 25G/100G network equipment will show a trend of rapid development, and by 2020 400G network equipment will become a strong driving factor for the whole network equipment. The track holds cloud computing services, IDC, cloud computing network equipment (and high-speed optical modules).
3. The focus of related companies' research.
Qualitative analysis-return to industry research: pay attention to the change of technology trend and business model trend.
Quantitative analysis-put it into financial statements: pay attention to cash flow, etc.