Edited by GF Securities Co., LTD.: "October Journal of New Energy vehicles-passenger cars start up, Commercial vehicles recover obviously"

1. The passenger car starts up and the commercial vehicle recovers obviously.

According to the automobile production and sales data released by the China Automobile Association in September 2018, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in September were 127000 and 121200 respectively, up 64.43% and 54.79% respectively from a year earlier. Among them, there are 107000 passenger vehicles (80000 pure electric vehicles and 27000 plug-in hybrid vehicles) and 15000 new energy commercial vehicles (14000 pure electric vehicles and 0 plug-in hybrid vehicles).

Combined with the data of the Automobile Association in mid-September and the fundamentals of the industry.GF Securities Co., LTD. is firmly optimistic.With the uptrend of the new energy vehicle industry, the institutional dividend + technological breakthrough will make the electric vehicle speed up to replace the fuel vehicle.

2. The technical index is stable and rising, and the high-endurance models are constantly enriched.

On September 30, 2018, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the catalogue of recommended models for the Promotion and Application of New Energy vehicles (the 10th batch of 2018), including 212 models of 104 enterprises, among which 100 enterprises have 194 models of pure electric products, 5 enterprises have 6 models of plug-in hybrid products and 11 models of fuel cell products.

In terms of energy density of pure electric passenger vehicles, the average level of the 10th batch of catalogues reached 143Wh/kg, while there were 4 models above 160Wh/kg and 21 models above 140Wh/kg, accounting for 75.00%, which is still composed of the maximum energy density. The 10th batch of catalogue pure electric passenger models last a total of 7 400km models, including Weima, the Great Wall, Yundu and so on.

The 10th batchNon-fast charging pure electric passenger modelThe average energy density is 140Wh/kg, which accounts for 69.74% of the vehicles above 140Wh/kg.

The 10th batchPure electric special vehicleAverage energy density 132Wh/kg, average mileage 270km, due to the low requirements of special vehicles, priority to meet the economy, technical parameters have remained stable since the beginning of the year, little improvement, lithium iron phosphate battery line models have dropped to 33.3% of the share.

3. Mid-stream price tracking: structural price pressure

According to the China Chemical and physical Power Industry Association

Power battery:As of the end of September, the overall price remained stable about 1.20-1.30 yuan / Wh.

Cathode material:At the end of September, the main current price of NCM523 power ternary materials is 17.5-18.5 million yuan / ton, while the quotation of NCM811 ternary materials remains at about 230,000 yuan / ton. The lithium carbonate market is relatively stable and the cobalt price has declined.

SeptumMembrane:At the end of September, the mainstream product price of wet base membrane is 1.8-2.1 yuan / ping, and the shipping price of diaphragm enterprises is lower.

Electrolyte:At the end of September, the mainstream price of electrolyte products is 3.6-49,000 yuan / ton, the price of high-end products is about 70,000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of low-end products is 23,000-28,000 yuan / ton.

Negative material:At the end of September, the mainstream of low-end products was 2.8-35,000 yuan / ton, the mainstream of middle-end products was 45,000-60,000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of high-end products was 70,000-100,000 yuan / ton.

4. Investment suggestions

With the switch between new and old models, the prosperity of the new energy vehicle industry has gradually stabilized, and is expected to gradually recover in the traditional peak season in the second half of the year. At present, it is suggested that we should pay attention to the leading companies in the middle reaches where the market pattern is gradually clear.Ningde era、Star source material、New Zeus、Pu Tai Lai、When promoted to science and technologyAnd other subdivided materials, high-end product leader.

5. Risk hint

The price reduction of the industrial chain is higher than expected; the annual production and sales data are lower than expected.