Investment logic: 1) caffeine supply is regulated and the pattern is stable, the downstream demand side continues to grow, and the industry price enters a new steady state after the price rise at the end of the 21st year. We judge that the price is expected to continue, the price of the superimposed raw material cyanoacetic acid has declined, the price gap has widened, the profit space has increased, and the 22-year performance is more flexible. 2) locate CSPC Pharmaceutical's big health platform, plan to acquire stone medicine Sheng Xue, and add code to lay out the big health business. Shengxue is expected to become the largest supplier of third-party acarbose raw materials in China after parturition. With the change of downstream preparation pattern, the company's share of raw materials is expected to expand. 3) Health food products are expected to recover and achieve restorative growth with the epidemic in downstream channels.
Caffeine prices will enter a new steady state after the end of 2021, and 22-year performance is expected to break out. The supply end of caffeine belongs to the national category II psychotropic substance control in China, and only three are in production in China. The demand side is mainly caffeine-containing food and beverage, which continues to grow rapidly after the epidemic. At the end of 2021, due to the rising prices of upstream raw materials and other factors, the price of caffeine rose sharply. At present, three domestic enterprises are in a state of full production and full sales, and export prices have entered a new steady state of 17-18 US dollars / kg.
With a production capacity of nearly 14000 tons in 2022, the price of cyanoacetic acid, the main raw material, has been adjusted back, and the price gap has widened. We estimate that the increase in the price of caffeine will raise the gross profit margin of caffeine products from 30% to more than 50%. This round of caffeine price increase is different from the past, this round of supply-side new capacity short-term pressure, are currently in a state of full production and full sales, we judge that the company's 22-year performance is expected to break out.
CSPC Pharmaceutical's big health platform continues to increase the layout of the big health business. The company listed A shares in 2019, which is CSPC Pharmaceutical's big health business platform. At present, the company plans to acquire stone medicine Shengxue and enter the field of anhydrous glucose and acarbose raw materials, as well as various biological enzymes. The performance commitments for 2022-2024 are 81 million, 91 million and 102 million, and asset delivery is expected to increase the company's revenue and performance volume by 2022. According to the prospectus and the company's strategy to develop a large health business, the company is actively laying out a series of functional food and beverage products and formula food products for special medical purposes. we believe that the integration of stone medicine Sheng Xue is the first step. in the future, the company will establish a long-term growth space through further extension + endogenous health products.
Profit forecast and investment advice: excluding Shiyao Shengxue, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 1.917 billion yuan, 1.997 billion yuan and 2.077 billion yuan in 2022-2024, an increase of 33.9%, 4.1% and 4.0% over the same period last year. The business of the company is stable, and the proportion of three fees is not expected to change greatly. after considering the company expenses and other factors that affect the return net profit, it is estimated that the return net profit in 2022-2024 is 623pm 676 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 96.5%, 2.2% and 6.2%. Considering that the high price of caffeine can be maintained for a long time, the cost of raw materials has begun to decline, the price gap has widened, and the profitability has been enhanced, the company has a more flexible performance in 2022 and is given an overweight rating.
Risk tips: the risk of a decline in the price of caffeine; the risk of failure in the acquisition of stone medicine Sheng Xue; the risk of intensified competition in the industry; the decline in caffeine exports.