Report guide
The company issued an announcement: 1) confirm the Tianquan Fusan transaction consideration (3.6 billion yuan for 100% equity purchase, corresponding to the 23-year performance target of 7.2x PE), of which 2.935 billion yuan is paid for additional shares, accounting for 81.53%, and 665 million yuan in cash, accounting for 18.47%. 2) in order to meet the cash consideration of 665 million yuan, it is proposed to raise 1.065 billion yuan, and the remaining 400 million yuan will be used to supplement working capital, and the acquisition is not based on the success of matching financing; 3) the company and all shareholders of the acquired party have signed a "performance compensation agreement". In accordance with the commitment agreement, the net profit of Tianquan 22-24 deducting non-homing net profit is not less than 494 million yuan.
Main points of investment
Graphitization capacity is put into production at a faster pace, and Changxie locks negative leading shipments and plans to produce 140000 tons of Tianquan saddle. At present, it has achieved an EIA target of 60,000 tons for all production lines of Tianquan. Lushan Phase I and II have obtained approval for energy assessment / EIA approval. The company has now put into production a total of 40,000 tons of capacity (Phase II was put into production in March, climbing). Tianquan Phase III is under construction in September 22. Lushan Phase I and II, each with 40,000 tons, will be put into production in January and April 23, respectively. According to the pace of planned production capacity, the construction of 140000 tons of capacity was completed in April 23, a substantial increase in speed. The company has signed a long-term cooperation agreement with Betteri and Kaijin to lock in an annualized production capacity of nearly 80,000 tons in 23 years, and has good cooperation with Shanshan and Xiang Fenghua.
The profit level of graphitization per ton is steady and upward, and the industry continues to enjoy the volume and profits. In the first quarter of 22, the unit price of negative graphitization processing was 22219 yuan / ton, the unit cost was 13755 yuan / ton, and the net profit per ton was 6698 yuan / ton. compared with 4414 yuan / ton in 21 years, the graphitization supply and demand tension brought about a continuous rise in processing fees, followed by the prominent scale advantage of new capacity and the stabilization of raw material prices. Unit profits are expected to rise steadily in the second to fourth quarters of 22 years. Under the influence of double control of energy consumption, Winter Olympic Games and epidemic prevention and control, graphitization supply is limited, and the graphitization of the company's assets will greatly boost the performance.
The performance commitment is bound to the core technical management team, which demonstrates the company's determination to transform the negative pole. The company and the acquired party signed a "performance compensation agreement". Some companies whose performance is lower than the promised amount will confiscate the corresponding shares of the undertakers (calculated at 20.94 yuan per share) through buyback, and set up a lock-up agreement for the committers' shares during the performance commitment period. the mechanism binds Tianquan core management and technical team. The establishment and improvement of a long-term incentive mechanism can fully mobilize the enthusiasm of personnel and reflect the company's determination to transform to negative graphitization.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company is a diversified enterprise actively transforming the new energy track, and the negative material opens the second growth curve. The graphitization industry is still in short supply, Tianquanfu saddle has established a long-term cooperative relationship with high-quality customers, and the follow-up production capacity is expected to be effectively digested (expected sales of 5, 11 and 140000 tons respectively in 22-24). Considering graphitization and consolidation, we raise the forecast of the company's return net profit for 22-24 to 6.09,10.55 and 1.313 billion yuan (1.94,2.96 and 416 million yuan before the increase). This fixed increase and asset acquisition are not based on the success of supporting financing, but only consider the payment of the issued shares (2.935 billion yuan and 20.94 yuan per share). The total share capital of the company after this issue is 448 million shares, corresponding to the total market capitalization of 12.705 billion yuan on July 20, and the PE of 22-24 is 21, 12, 10 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint
Global sales of new energy vehicles fall short of expectations; negative and graphitized capacity construction falls short of expectations; and competition in the negative industry intensifies.