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中金普洛斯REIT(508056):具备成长潜力的优质稳定资产

Zhongjinprose REIT (508056): High quality stable assets with growth potential

中信證券 ·  Jul 20, 2022 20:01  · Researches

The performance of GLP REIT2021 for the whole year and the first quarter of 2022 was in line with expectations, the overall operation was stable, the asset evaluation value increased steadily in 2021, the project rental rate remained high, and the overall impact of the epidemic was limited. GLP Group, the parent company of GLP REIT, has rich experience in operation and management of REIT products and expansion of logistics warehousing assets abroad, as well as holding a large number of high-quality warehousing and logistics facilities assets in China, we are optimistic about the possibility of GLP REIT's asset management expansion through high-quality asset injection in the future, and suggest that investors pay attention to the future product expansion potential and actual landing situation.

The performance is in line with expectations and the business performance is good. In 2021, during the period of the fund contract (June 7, 2021-December 31, 2021), GLP REIT realized operating income of 209 million yuan, EBITDA1.39 billion yuan and available allocation amount of 151 million yuan, which was adjusted by a comparable range (according to the ratio of actual operating days to annual days 207x3655 as the adjustment factor, and the annual forecast in the prospectus was adjusted to comparable data within the actual operating range) The overall completion of each operating index is good, of which EBITDA and available allocation amount respectively completed 103.5% and 106.4% of the predicted level of the prospectus. During the reporting period, the product was announced twice based on the amount available for distribution in 2021, with a dividend ratio of 95% and 99.98%, respectively. In the first quarter of 2022, the operation of GLP REIT continued to be stable. With reference to the prospectus for the forecast of business performance in 2022, by the end of March 2022, the progress of various operating indicators of fund products has basically reached the standard, and the forecast performance level is expected to be successfully achieved for the whole year.

Asset appreciation, stable operation. The underlying assets of the seven warehousing and logistics parks managed by GLP REIT are located in the three major urban agglomerations of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Greater Bay area. by the end of 2021, the leasable area totaled 707600 square meters, and each logistics park maintained a high level of occupancy rate (including 4 logistics parks with an occupancy rate of 100%). The asset appreciation increased steadily, and the comprehensive evaluation value increased by 1.38% compared with the recruitment evaluation results. GLP REIT operates smoothly in the logistics park. By the end of 2021, there were 53 effective market-oriented tenants, with an average year-end occupancy rate of 98.78%, an increase of 0.06% over the same period last year. The effective rental price was 42.92 yuan per square meter per month, an increase of 7.19% over the same period last year.

By the end of March 2022, the average occupancy rate of the seven logistics parks was 98.33%, more than 95% of the expired lease area was renewed, the operation was stable, the operating income during the period was limited by the epidemic, and the overall tenant structure was stable. mainly in the transport industry, commercial and professional services, software and services.

The market attention is hot, the trading volume price goes up. Since GLP REIT was listed on June 21, 2021, the market attention has gradually increased. As of July 18, 2022, the closing price of the product was 5.12 yuan per share, which was 31.57% higher than the issue price, and the product price trend was still stable since the lifting of the ban. We believe that the scarcity of REIT products of high-quality assets such as logistics and warehousing makes the market favored this variety of assets and alleviates the impact of the ban on product prices to a certain extent. We believe that the substantial increase in product trading volume and turnover rate from September 2021 to early 2022 is mainly caused by investor attention and investment enthusiasm, which is the common trading characteristics of all products in the REITs market at this stage. After that, with the gradual return to rationality of investment transactions, the trading volume and turnover rate of various products also returned to a stable level accordingly. Based on the closing price on July 18, 2022, we expect GLP REIT2022 to have an annual expected cash distribution rate of 3.28%, which is higher than the average expected cash distribution rate of 3.20% for equity REIT products.

Risk factors: the impact of the continuous fluctuation of the local epidemic on the stability of the lease; the difficulty of cross-regional portfolio approval; the risk that the approval progress of fund-raising is less than expected.

High-quality and scarce target, pay attention to the potential of fund-raising. There is a natural gap between supply and demand of logistics warehousing assets in China, the stability and scarcity of logistics park assets exist for a long time, and the level of rent and rental rate of high-quality asset projects is also expected to maintain a high level, which has strong investment value in the long run. GLP Group, the parent company of GLP REIT original rights owner, has rich experience in REIT product operation and management and logistics warehousing asset expansion overseas, and holds a large number of high-quality warehousing and logistics facilities assets in China. By the end of 2021, GLP Group has a completed and stable operation of 32.35 million square meters of warehousing property in China. We are optimistic about the possibility of asset management expansion of GLP REIT through high-quality asset injection in the future, and suggest that investors pay attention to the future expansion potential and actual landing situation of the products. According to the DDM valuation model, we estimate the reasonable value of the fund at 5.45 yuan per share. As of July 18, 2022, the fund closed at 5.12 yuan per share, maintaining the "buy" rating.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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