Event: the company issued a performance forecast for 2022, which is expected to achieve a net profit of 24 million yuan to 28 million yuan, an increase of 0.2% to 16.9% over the same period last year, and a deduction of 9 million yuan to 13 million yuan for non-net profit, an increase of 68.3% and 143.1% over the same period last year.
Affected by the epidemic and delayed demand from downstream customers, 22Q2's quarterly results fluctuated in a short period of time. During the reporting period, due to the influence of the epidemic, the demand of some of the company's downstream customers decreased or the delivery of goods was delayed; the logistics was affected by the control of the epidemic, which led to the delay in the delivery of some project orders in Q2; the impact of the epidemic caused some upstream mold suppliers unable to complete supporting production and delivery on time, and the company's newly developed alternative suppliers needed a running-in process, thus affecting the company's new project development and mass production climbing process. In addition, although the business strategy of subsidiary Antexin has changed from "scale-oriented" to "profit-oriented", and its business situation has gradually improved, the effectiveness of strategy adjustment needs to be reflected step by step in a certain cycle, and profitability needs to be continuously improved. therefore, there is still a certain degree of drag on the company's performance in the reporting period. In summary, the company's 22Q2 single-quarter performance shows short-term fluctuations due to various influences.
The growth of the folding screen mobile phone market is expected, and the superposition of several important projects is expected to accelerate the volume of 22Q3, which is optimistic about the growth of the company's annual performance. According to CINNO Research, about 8 million sets of S-brand folding screen phones were shipped in 2021, and more than 10 million sets of parts were ordered. In 2022, the target of shipping new products of S-brand folding screen phones is 15 million to 20 million, and the purchase of parts is expected to exceed 20 million sets in 2022. Jingyan Technology, as the main supplier of hinge MIM parts for S customers' folding screen mobile phones, will directly benefit from the doubling of its new product shipments. In addition, the company extends from supplying folding screen mobile phone hinge MIM pieces to downstream hinge assembly, and the first hinge assembly case has begun mass production climbing. As the value of hinge assembly is more than ten times higher than that of hinge MIM, it is expected to continue to open new performance increments with the entry of more assembly cases in the future. Considering that the third quarter is supposed to be the peak season for consumer electronics, several important projects of the company are expected to accelerate climbing in 22Q3, and some orders delayed by the epidemic in 22Q2 will also be gradually landed in 22Q3, we continue to be optimistic about the growth of the company's 22Q3 and full-year results.
Profit forecast and investment advice. Due to the impact of the epidemic, we have lowered the company's performance forecast for 2022, and it is estimated that the company's return net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.7 million yuan, 40 billion yuan, and 5.3 billion yuan respectively. Considering the company's core share advantage in the folding screen hinge supply chain, it is a rare domestic MIM manufacturer that takes the lead in laying out the hinge assembly business and has mass production capacity, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: folding screen mobile phone shipments are not up to expectations; MIM process penetration is not up to expectations; transmission and heat dissipation business expansion is not up to expectations; increased competition in the industry leads to narrowing share and downward product prices.