Must-read strategies | The “policy bottom” of A-shares is there, how far is the “bottom of the market”?

富途资讯 · Oct 23, 2018 16:05

精编自国信证券：《回顾 A 股历史上的那几次「至暗时刻」》

国信证券认为，「政策底」、「市场底」、「基本面底」三者之间确有明显的时滞关系，一般情况下，「政策底」先于「市场底」出现，而「市场底」先于「基本面底」出现，领先的时间有时候会很长达到半年到三个季度。

1、2005 年 6 月，上证综指 998

行情：从 2001 年 6 月「国有股减持」政策出台时上证综指最高到 2245 点，到 2005 年 6 月上证综指最低跌到 998 点，四年间中国经济高速增长，但股市指数却被腰斩，中间虽略有反弹，但市场走势总体向下， 2005 年是熊市的尾端。

分析：2004 年 12 月 17 日，上证综指第九次跌破 1300 点后，跌破「政策铁底」。这在当时引起了极大的影响，因为跌破 1300 意味着技术上看所有的支撑位基本都被跌穿了，再往前找就要看到 1999 年「 519」行情启动时的 1048 点的低点了。

跌破 1300 点后，到 2005 年救市的政策就开始陆续出台，最直接的是 2005 年 1 月 24 日，股票交易印花税，税率由 2‰下调至 1‰，继而引发市场在 2 月份的一波小反弹。但反弹仅仅持续了一个月， 3 月份开始市场继续下跌，到 6 月份上证综指先后跌破了「 519」行情启动时的 1048 点，以及具有极大影响力的整数点位 1000 点，最终上证综指到 2005 年 6 月 30 日达到 998 点才企稳。

跌到 1000 点附近时， A 股市场中所有的问题都已经成为了无法解决的难题，「上市公司各种圈钱」、「股票市场只重融资不重投资」、「企业盈利持续下滑」、「股改后流通股大幅扩容怎么办」等等等等，极度悲观下，任何利好都会被视作是利空，「 G 三一」等第一批股改公司即使白送股份和现金提高减持门槛，股价照样大跌。最后市场又回到了一个老问题的讨论，中国股市要不要推倒重来，「当初，「推倒重来论」受到千夫所指，如今，股市已然倒塌，却不知如何重来」

总结：在 2005 年市场寻底过程中，「政策底」在 2005 年 2 月左右就已经非常明确了，一是前述在 1 月 24 日降低了印花税，二是保险资金入市。「市场底」在 2005 年 6 月底出现，上证综指最低到了 998 点。「基本面底」出现的时间则更晚，2005 年 A 股上市公司业绩增速是持续下滑的，这个过程要到 2006 年一季度才见底，因此「基本面底」差不多要到 2006 年二季度左右才能说真正看清楚。

2、2008 年 10 月，上证综指 1664

行情：2008 年美国次贷危机蔓延至全球引发金融海啸， BDI 指数从万点以上直泻而下，中国经济形势急转直下，宏观经济政策经历了从「双防」到推出「四万亿」的方向性转变，上证综指从 2007 年 10 月最高的 6124 跌到了 2008 年 10月最低的 1664 点，下跌幅度之深、速度之快都是前所未见的。

分析：对 A 股市场来说，2008 年下跌中最痛苦的事情可能就是 1800 点的先上再破了。上证综指从 2007 年 10 月的 6124 点开始调整下跌，到 2008 年 9 月 18 日上证综指最低跌到了 1802 点。9 月 18 日晚，国家出台了救市三大政策，一是印花税从双边改为单边征收、卖出征收千分之一，二是汇金公司直接入市、在二级市场自主购入工、中、建三行股票，三是国资委支持央企增持或回购上市公司股份。

三大救市政策利好下，次日暨 9 月 19 日上证综指大涨 9.5%，两市全线涨停，指数涨停。在救市政策出台后的五个交易日内，上证综指累计涨幅超过 20%，最高摸到了 2333 点。

可惜就是好景不长，9 月的小反弹周期十分短暂，仅维持了半个月Ａ股便再度下跌。10 月份最后上证综指跌破了 1800 点三大救市政策出台时的低点，最后到了 1664。此时的市场恐慌是达到了极致，因为能够想到的政策都已经出台，而指数所有支撑位又全部跌破，1664 以下再要找低点就要看到 2005 年 6 月份的 998 了。

总结：2008 年寻底过程中，资本市场的「政策底」大概在 4 月份就已经出现了（降低印花税），但 9 月份的三大救市政策对股市的支持力度更为直截明确，到 11 月 9 日的国务院常务会议是政策转向的顶点，国务院提出了「四万亿」投资的刺激计划和适度宽松的货币政策。

上市公司的「基本面底」大致在 2009 年一季度出现，业绩增速的下行趋势开始结束。股市的「市场底」大致出现在 2008 年的 11 月，到 2009 年当市场看到了天量信贷以后股市就一发不可收拾了，股价的表现要远远领先于基本面的表现。

3、 2012 年 12 月，上证综指 1949

行情：中国经济在经历了 2009 年的「V 型」反转后，大多数经济增长指标在 2010 年达到了最高点，由于当时很多观点认为经济将要进入新一轮上行周期，企业在 2010 年大幅扩大了产能进行了大量资本支出，从而使得商品价格大幅上涨，但新一轮周期的幻觉很快消失。到 2011 年中国经济面对的是通胀上涨、货币政策收紧、经济增长指标全面滑落的不利局面，股市大约从 2011 年 4 月开始，一直到 2012 年 12 月，出现了趋势性的下跌。

分析：股市从 2011 年二季度就开始下跌，但更痛苦的还是在 2012 年。2012 年市场还会在谈论 GDP 增速是否要「保八」的问题，但形势的变化发展远比想象得要快，「保八」根本没有来得及过渡，GDP 增速就已经进入到「7%」的运行区间。经济下行使得市场情绪非常悲观，可以说Ａ股的情绪到了极度悲观的状态，虽然期间有各种利好消息，但市场都不予理会。

9 月 28 日，在「维稳」十八大的工作指导下，中国人寿、中国平安、中国人保等多家保险巨头三天加仓超过 100 亿，汇金公司加仓大型银行股。11 月 16 日，IPO 再度暂停，虽然官方没有明确说明，但是事实上新股发行已经处于停歇的状态。最终上证综指在 2012 年 12 月 4 日到达了最低点 1949 点，被市场笑称「建国底」。

总结：与以往两次市场寻底过程不同的是，2012 年那次市场的「基本面底」大概在 2012 年三季度就出现了，上市公司净利润增速在 2012 年三季度达到低点之后开始回升，但「市场底」要到 2012 年 12 月才出现，这一次「市场底」相比「基本面底」的出现要滞后而非领先。

Edited by Guoxin Securities: "reviewing the 'darkest moments' in the history of A shares."

Guoxin Securities believes that there is an obvious time lag relationship among "policy bottom", "market bottom" and "basic bottom". In general, the "policy bottom" appears before the "market bottom", while the "market bottom" precedes the "basic bottom". The leading time is sometimes as long as half a year to three quarters.

1. June 2005, Shanghai Composite Index 998

Quotation:From June 2001, when the policy of "reduction of state-owned shares" was introduced, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 2245 points, to June 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 998 points. China's economy has grown rapidly in the past four years, but the stock market index has halved. Although there has been a slight rebound in the middle, the market trend is generally downward, and 2005 is the end of the bear market.

Analysis:On December 17, 2004, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below the "policy iron bottom" after falling below 1300 for the ninth time. This had a great impact at the time, because falling below 1300 means that technically all support levels have been broken, and you will see the low of 1048 when the market started in 1999.

After falling below 1300 points, policies to rescue the market began to be introduced one after another in 2005. the most direct one was on January 24, 2005, when the stamp duty rate on stock transactions was reduced from 2 ‰ to 1 ‰, which triggered a small rebound in the market in February. But the rebound lasted only a month, and the market continued to fall in March. By June, the Shanghai Composite Index had successively fallen below the 1048 points at the start of the market and the influential integer point of 998 points. Finally, the Shanghai Composite Index stabilized to 998 points on June 30, 2005.

When it fell near 1000 points, all the problems in the A stock market have become insurmountable problems, such as "all kinds of money of listed companies", "the stock market only focuses on financing rather than investment", "corporate profits continue to decline", "what about the substantial expansion of tradable shares after the share reform" and so on. Under extreme pessimism, any good will be regarded as bad. Even if the first batch of share reform companies such as "G Trinity" gave away shares and cash for free to raise the threshold for reducing their holdings, their share prices still plummeted. Finally, the market returned to the discussion of an old question, whether the Chinese stock market should start all over again. "at the beginning, the 'overthrow theory' was criticized by thousands of people, but now the stock market has collapsed, but I don't know how to start all over again."

Summary:In the process of market bottoming in 2005, the "policy bottom" has been very clear around February 2005, one is the aforementioned reduction of stamp duty on January 24, the other is the entry of insurance funds into the market. The "market bottom" appeared at the end of June 2005, with the Shanghai Composite Index as low as 998 points. The "basic bottom" appeared even later, and the performance growth rate of A-share listed companies continued to decline in 2005, and this process did not bottom out until the first quarter of 2006, so the "basic bottom" can not be really seen until about the second quarter of 2006.

2. October 2008, Shanghai Composite Index 1664

Quotation:In 2008, the spread of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States to the global financial tsunami, the BDI index plummeted from more than 10,000 points, China's economic situation plummeted, macroeconomic policy experienced a directional change from "double prevention" to the launch of "4 trillion". The Shanghai Composite Index fell from the highest 6124 in October 2007 to the lowest 1664 points in October 2008.

Analysis:For the A-share market, perhaps the most painful thing about the 2008 decline was that it went up at 1800 points and then broke. The Shanghai Composite Index adjusted to fall from 6124 points in October 2007 to as low as 1802 points on September 18, 2008. On the evening of September 18, the state issued three major policies to rescue the market: first, stamp duty was levied unilaterally from bilateral to unilateral, and 1/1000 was levied on sales; second, Huijin Company directly entered the market and independently bought shares of Gong, China, and Construction in the secondary market; and third, SASAC supported the central enterprises to increase their holdings or buy back the shares of listed companies.

The three major rescue policies were positive. The next day and September 19, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 9.5%, the two cities rose by the daily limit, and the index rose by the limit. In the five trading days after the introduction of the rescue policy, the Shanghai Composite Index rose more than 20 per cent, reaching a peak of 2333 points.

Unfortunately, the good times are not long, the small rebound cycle in September is very short, only maintained for half a month, A shares fell again. In October, the Shanghai Composite Index finally fell below the low of 1800 points when the three major rescue policies were introduced, and finally reached 1664. At this time, the market panic is to the extreme, because all conceivable policies have been introduced, and all the support levels of the index have fallen below. If you want to find a low below 1664, you will see 998 in June 2005.

Summary:In the process of bottoming out in 2008, the "policy bottom" of the capital market probably appeared in April (reducing stamp duty), but the support of the three major rescue policies to the stock market in September was more straightforward. the executive meeting of the State Council on November 9 was the culmination of the policy shift, which put forward a "4 trillion" investment stimulus plan and moderately loose monetary policy.

The "basic bottom" of listed companies roughly appeared in the first quarter of 2009, and the downward trend of performance growth began to end. The "market bottom" of the stock market roughly appeared in November 2008, and in 2009, when the market saw a huge amount of credit, the stock market got out of control, and the performance of stock prices was far ahead of the fundamentals.

3. In December 2012, Shanghai Composite Index 1949

Quotation:After China's economy experienced a "V-shaped" reversal in 2009, most indicators of economic growth peaked in 2010, as there were many views that the economy was about to enter a new upward cycle. companies significantly expanded their production capacity and made a lot of capital expenditure in 2010, which led to a sharp rise in commodity prices, but the illusion of a new cycle quickly disappeared. By 2011, China's economy is facing an unfavorable situation of rising inflation, tightening monetary policy and falling economic growth indicators across the board. The stock market has experienced a trend decline from about April 2011 to December 2012.

Analysis:The stock market has been falling since the second quarter of 2011, but it was even more painful in 2012. In 2012, the market will still be talking about whether GDP growth should be "eight", but the situation is changing much faster than expected. "eight" has no time to transition, and GDP growth has already entered the "7%" operating range. The economic downturn makes the market mood very pessimistic, it can be said that the mood of A shares has reached an extremely pessimistic state, although there are all kinds of good news during this period, but the market ignores it.

On September 28, under the guidance of the 18th CPC National Congress of maintaining Stability, many insurance giants, such as China Life Insurance Company Limited, Ping An Insurance, and PICC, increased their positions by more than 10 billion in three days, and Huijin increased its positions in large bank stocks. On November 16th, IPO was suspended again, although it was not clearly stated by the authorities, but in fact the issuance of new shares has been suspended. Finally, the Shanghai Composite Index reached its lowest point of 1949 on December 4, 2012, which was laughed at by the market as "Jianguo bottom".

Summary:Different from the previous two market bottoming processes, the "basic bottom" of the market in 2012 probably appeared in the third quarter of 2012, and the net profit growth of listed companies began to pick up after reaching a low in the third quarter of 2012. however, the "market bottom" will not appear until December 2012, and this time the emergence of the "market bottom" lags behind rather than takes the lead.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

必读策略 | A 股“政策底”已现，“市场底”还有多远？

Must-read strategies | The “policy bottom” of A-shares is there, how far is the “bottom of the market”?

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