Zhitong Financial APP learned that Guosheng Securities released a research report saying that in the first half of 2022, various segments of the education industry continued their previous policy guidance, taking into account multiple dimensions such as policy conservatism, plate growth, competition pattern and market space, and selected the leading targets of private higher education, vocational training and human resources services from top to bottom. Some private higher education companies have seen an eye-catching increase in undergraduate and junior college places in 2022, and the new Vocational Education Law continues to encourage policy guidance, recommended: Chinese Education Holdings (00839), Hope Education (01765), New higher Education Group (02001), intellectual Education (003032.SZ), Science and Technology International (300662.SZ), Shengtong shares (002599.SZ) and so on.
The main points of Guosheng Securities are as follows:
In the first half of 2022, the education industry continued the policy guidance of 2021, and the number of college enrollment and graduates reached a new high.
In terms of policy direction, the encouraging attitude towards vocational education continued in the first half of 2022, and the newly revised Vocational Education Law came into effect in May 2022, which makes it clear that vocational education is a type of education with the same important status as general education. In terms of population, the enrollment of general and vocational colleges increased by 3.6% to 10.01 million in 2021, and the number of applicants for the college entrance examination in 2022 increased by 1.15 million to 11.93 million. The enrollment of colleges and universities has reached a new high to promote the continuous expansion of the market scale of private higher education in China. Private academic education: the policy is good to be realized, and private higher education is expected to enjoy the dividend of vocational education. After the promulgation of the regulations on the implementation of the Civil Promotion Law in 2021, the overall policy environment of private higher education is clear, but the conversion of independent colleges; and
The for-profit / non-profit choice of private colleges and universities still needs to be promoted.
The upside-down valuation of the primary and secondary market has caused private higher education companies to focus on endogenous high-quality development, and leading companies such as Chinese Education Holdings and Hope Education have significantly improved undergraduate / post-secondary places in 2022, leading to the restoration of valuation. In terms of academic qualifications and vocational education, the enrollment of vocational undergraduates in China accounts for only 0.7% of the enrollment scale of higher vocational education in 2021, which has more room for improvement than the target of reaching 10% in 2025. Private higher education companies are expected to benefit.
Vocational training: employment demand supports training demand and pays attention to business optimization.
Skills training: the epidemic again affected the operation of vocational skills training companies in the first half of 2022, but the peak enrollment season in spring and autumn was limited, and the influence of enrollment was relatively controllable. On the other hand, in 2021, secondary vocational education focuses on supply-side optimization, the number of schools and enrollment scale decreased significantly, skills training companies are also expected to give play to their own advantages through the layout of secondary vocational education. Enrollment training: in 2022, the number of students enrolled in the national examination plan increased by 21.3% to 31200, and the total number of students enrolled in the provincial examination increased by 6.6% to 163100, and the postgraduate entrance examination continued to be hot. However, due to the influence of students' consumption ability, the traditional offline recruitment training head institutions are facing intensified competitive pressure, and the high-price agreement classes are facing greater refund pressure. Under the background of the steady rise of recruitment and registration in the industry as a whole, we should pay more attention to the optimization of institutional operation.
Human resources services: the post-epidemic era benefits from stable employment orientation, with the advantages of flexible employment and online recruitment.
There is a mismatch between supply and demand in the employment situation in China. In the post-epidemic era, driven by the slowdown of overall economic growth, increased business pressure and stable employment-oriented state-encouraged diversified forms of employment, the preference of enterprises to use flexible employment model is gradually increasing. On the other hand, online recruitment service has gradually become an important tool for corporate recruitment and job search for candidates, and the penetration rate is expected to increase rapidly from 17.9% in 2020 to 34.9% in 2025. As the industry leader, Kerry International, KANZHUN LIMITED and other companies are accelerating the expansion of customer scale and grasping the industry dividend period.
K12 extracurricular: the difficult road of transformation is still in progress.
After the release of the "double reduction" policy in July 2021, a number of supporting policies are expected to be implemented locally, strict supervision has not been loosened, and the relevant listed companies have opened the road of transformation. At present, New Oriental Education & Technology Group online has made remarkable progress through its Oriental selection brand layout live broadcast business, with sales reaching 681 million yuan in June 2022, while other listed companies are still in the process of transformation.
Risk Tips:The risk of industry policy, the intensification of market competition, the risk of recurrence of the epidemic, and the company's performance is below expectations.