Edited by Galaxy Securities: "Express topic: Singles Day is approaching, good delivery plate"
Recently, a number of express delivery companies have raised express delivery fees. ZTO Express announced that the express delivery fee adjustment mechanism will be launched this month to adjust the express delivery fees from the whole country to the Shanghai area. Yunda and Yuantong have also issued notices of "adjusting express delivery fees to Shanghai" to various outlets one after another.
Galaxy Securities pointed out thatThe total volume of retail sales of consumer goods in China has increased steadily, with a monthly growth rate of about 10% over the same period last year. According to statistics, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China has increased year by year, with a cumulative value of 10.8487 trillion yuan in 2008 and 30.8302 trillion yuan in 2017, an increase of 184.18%.
The growth rate of online retail is significantly higher than that of social retail sales, which provides space for the development of the express delivery industry. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative value of online retail sales and the cumulative value of online retail sales of physical goods increased steadily from May to August 2018, with a growth rate of 28.2% and 37.3%. The average growth rate of online retail sales across the country in the past three years is about 30%.
The income of the express delivery industry maintains a rapid growth rate and has a strong growth. According to statistics, the operating income of China's express delivery industry has increased rapidly in the past 10 years, from 40.8 billion yuan in 2008 to 495.7 billion yuan in 2017, with an average annual growth rate of 30.97%.
Galaxy Securities believes thatWith the approach of Singles Day, the business volume and operating income of express tickets are expected to increase steadily. According to the monthly express business data over the years (January 2009 to August 2017), the volume of express business above scale increased steadily, with an average monthly increase of 44.07% over the same period last year, with a monthly average of 3.34 billion pieces and 3.78 billion pieces from January to August 2017 and 2018. Among them, the November value reached a phased peak of 4.71 billion in 2017, mainly because it was driven by e-commerce activities such as "Singles Day", which stimulated online consumption and thus increased the volume of express delivery. November data from 2014 to 2017 can reflect the impact of "Singles Day" on business volume.
The comparative analysis of A-share listed express companies shows that in terms of express delivery volume, Yunda shares has a leading position in ticket size; in terms of growth capacity, the total operating income of Shunfeng Holdings is far ahead, and Yuantong Express ranks first in the same period; in terms of net profit, Shunfeng Holdings ranks first in net profit, and Yunda shares ranks first in the same period.
Galaxy Securities judgmentListed express companies have formed an express industry with SF Holdings as the absolute leader, Yunda shares, Yuantong Express and Shentong Express as the first echelon. Focus on recommending the industry leader SF Holdings, while paying attention to the first echelon in the relatively low valuation of express companies.