Technology + cost + customer triple advantage, the core competitiveness of the foundry industry Yitong new material is the domestic atomized iron powder leader, the market share of private enterprises first. The company focuses on high-end atomized iron powder, including high-performance pure iron powder, alloy steel powder and iron powder for additives. In terms of technology, we should master the core technologies such as "high-flow and high-pressure water atomization", "high efficiency and low energy consumption reduction" and "stability control of sintering size change rate". In terms of cost, independent research and development of core equipment, superimposed location synergy, obvious cost advantage On the customer side, docking with the global head brand, the copper powder business is expected to enjoy the accelerated expansion brought by high coincidence.
The downstream application of iron powder blossoms at many points, and the domestic alternative atomized iron powder at the turning point of prosperity covers new energy and traditional automobiles, communication equipment, 3C electronics, construction and so on. with the upstream powder metallurgy process advantages and downstream powder size change rate high demand trend appears, the middle and high-end market is constantly opened, and the demand is difficult to meet. The policy blessings promote the continuous upgrading of domestic products, the long-term constraint pattern of the high-end iron powder market is broken, the downstream localization promotes the upstream localization, and the import substitution logic is revealed. At the same time, superimposed downstream PM and MIM industry inflection point is expected, atomized iron powder is expected to usher in demand resonance.
Short-term iron powder + medium-term soft magnetic + long-term new source parts, enabling company multiplicative growth to raise investment and expand production-the transformation and upgrading project has achieved a jump in total production capacity from 80,000 tons to 200000 tons, of which atomized iron powder reached 180000 tons, continuously contributing to the growth of the company. At the same time, relying on the advantages of existing equipment + technology + experience + raw material sharing, the company actively arranges the business of soft magnetic and new energy parts, which is expected to open room for growth and valuation: (1) soft magnetic production capacity of 25000 tons, iron and silicon stand firm optical storage of new energy high prosperity track, iron, silicon and chromium application electronic scene, amorphous nanocrystal sword points to high-performance high-frequency scene. (2) the total production capacity of key components of new energy equipment is 22000, including wind power spindle, pumped storage turbine spindle, hydrogen storage bottle and other key components, and the project is expected to achieve a profit of about 600 million yuan.
Investment advice and profit Forecast
As the leader of domestic atomized iron fans, the company's core business technology + cost + customer advantages are significant, soft magnetic and new energy are expected to open the second growth pole. The basic market is growing steadily, the new business is expected to enjoy the re-upgrading of prosperity and valuation, the new production capacity of the fund-raising and transformation project is about to be released, and the revenue and profit is expected to grow rapidly, excluding the addition of 20,000 tons of soft magnetic + 22,000 new energy parts projects. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 6.11 billion yuan, 10.25 billion yuan, respectively, and the return net profit will be 122,650 million yuan respectively. In 2023, the target price is 38.74-46.30 yuan per share, covering it for the first time and giving it a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the risk of market demand fluctuation, the risk of project construction falling short of expectations, and the risk of raw material price fluctuation.