Ancai Hi-Tech: multi-business good coordination, increase production and efficiency to open the growth space. The company has ploughed the glass field for more than 30 years and mastered the glass manufacturing experience and technology. at present, it has formed an industrial layout with photovoltaic glass as the core and natural gas + float glass. The company is based on photovoltaic glass differentiation + glass business diversification development strategy, and extends to the high value-added glass industry. At present, photovoltaic glass is producing 900t/d, and 22Q4 is expected to reach 2700t / d; ultra-white float glass production capacity 600t/d.
We believe that under the high demand for photovoltaic glass and the competitive pattern of regional supply, we are optimistic about the differentiated layout of Ancai, the company's new kilns to increase production and efficiency, the profit level to stand in the upper reaches of the second echelon, and the superimposed synergy gain of diversified business to help the company to be stable and far-reaching. 1) increase production and efficiency: the company actively implements technological transformation and production line renewal, promoting a cumulative decrease of 16.55% in the unit flat cost of photovoltaic glass in 16-21 years, and the gap between the gross profit margin and the leader is rapidly narrowing. With sufficient willingness to expand production, 22Q4 will reach the production capacity of 2700t/d. 2) Photovoltaic glass differential layout: the company closely follows the market demand and speeds up the production capacity of 2.0mm thin plate and wide plate photovoltaic glass. The production capacity of the industry is mostly concentrated in the southeast region, and the location of the company is conducive to stabilizing the central region and opening up the northwest market. 3) Diversified development of glass business: the company actively promotes the business development of float glass, electronic glass and medicinal glass, and is the only two mass production enterprise of photothermal glass in the world, with high gross profit supported by technical strength; it was announced a few days ago that a new 10,000 ton / year pharmaceutical glass production line is ready for development.
In the field of photovoltaic glass: the photovoltaic installed capacity is high, the double glass / wide glass / thin glass permeability is increased, and the new planned production capacity on the supply side is large, but the high barrier attribute of the industry ensures the "two super and multi-strong" pattern.
1) the demand side continues to improve, and personalized demand increases: it is estimated that the photovoltaic glass demand growth rate CAGR14.8%, will reach 414,000t / day in 23 years. The permeability of large-size and 2.0mm ultra-thin glass continues to increase, and it is estimated that the demand for large-size photovoltaic glass in 23 years will be about 289pm 38500 tons / day, maintaining a tight balance.
2) with the supply-side dynamic adjustment, the actual landing may be delayed: at the end of the 21st year, the industry has a production capacity of 460,000 tons per day, and the planned production capacity in the 23rd year far exceeds the total demand. Photovoltaic glass prices are at the bottom, raw materials and fuel prices are high, small and medium-sized enterprises to expand production power or decline, the actual landing time may be delayed.
3) the "two super and multi-strong" pattern is consolidated: the photovoltaic glass industry has heavy assets, high energy consumption, long production expansion cycle (12-18 months), high initial investment and high barriers in the industry, the willingness of enterprises to expand production is highly related to the profits of the current period. It is expected that the "two super-strong" pattern of the industry will remain relatively stable.
Float glass field: photothermal power generation technology is gradually mature, photothermal power stations continue to fall to the ground, photothermal glass into the second path of solar power generation, which is more difficult than ordinary float and photovoltaic glass technology.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the return net profit of Ancai Hi-Tech from 2022 to 2024 is RMB 2.76 million, an increase of 32%, 34% and 50% over the same period last year. The current stock price corresponds to 20.2 PE, 15.0 pound, 10.0 times. The good coordination of the company's business, optimistic about the future company differentiation, diversified layout to promote growth, give "buy" rating.
Risk tips: photovoltaic glass demand is lower than expected; market space and industry scale measurement deviation; industry competition drama; capacity investment is not expected; raw material and fuel price change risk; stock price volatility risk; reference information lag risk.