It has been more than half a year since the beginning of the year, the three major US stock indexes have been weak, and the S & P 500 is the worst since the Great Depression in 1932.

Since the beginning of the year, the s & p 500 is down 20.2%, just better than the 43.3% in 1932, with the top five falling before the 1970s.

Judging from recent highs, the decline this year is not small, but it should be noted that the time of decline is still too short. The duration of the decline from the all-time high is only 132 days. According to Goldman Sachs Group's statistics, the bear market in the history of the US stock market lasted, the longest wave lasted more than 400 days, and other short-lasting declines were deeper than this one.

In addition, another sword of Damocles hanging over the US stock market is that the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates three times in a row this year, raising the benchmark federal interest rate from 0.25% to 1.75%, but inflation has not been curbed. The latest US inflation reached 9.1% in June, even higher than Mexico, which is also in South America. The Fed is about to hold an interest rate meeting this month, after the market predicted that it might raise interest rates by 100bp to curb inflation, but then several Fed officials collectively poured cold water on it.

Some officials have pointed out that even as they raise interest rates at the fastest pace in history, there are signs that economic activity is weakening. "people don't want to see interest rates raised too much," Federal Reserve Governor Waller said at a meeting on Thursday. "the 75bp rate hike is already huge. Don't feel that we haven't finished the work if we haven't reached the 100bp. "

Some Fed officials have expressed unease about the recent acceleration of interest rate hikes. George, chairman of the Kansas City Fed, who voted against interest rates at last month's meeting, said last week that "the risk of rapid interest rate hikes is that policy is tightening faster than the economy and markets adjust." "

Industry insiders said that in addition to increasing the risk of recession, the 100bp also has many other drawbacks, such as allowing officials to explain future policy strategies. In fact, if 75bp were to rise again this month, this year's rate hike would already be equivalent to the sum of the last cycle of interest rate hikes in 2015-2018, with the federal benchmark interest rate rising to between 2.25% and 2.5%.

In addition, the market negative sentiment is moving faster than the market itself, and growth is generally expected to slow or exceed the 2018 level. The overall market sentiment has been extremely pessimistic so far this year, it can be said that there are many extreme situations in price in.

Therefore, US stocks are now in a very awkward range, falling a lot, and market sentiment is also in an extremely pessimistic range, but inflation does not peak and interest rate increases do not stop, and no one can guarantee that the bottom will be copied correctly. However, no matter whether it is gold or diamond, no bottom is pointed.