The profit of 22H1 is 483-533 million yuan, the increase of electricity price is higher than the increase of coal price. Beijing Electric Power issued a performance forecast on July 15: the net profit of 22H1 is 483-533 million yuan, and the net profit of 22Q2 is 468-518 million yuan, which is a substantial turnround compared with the same period last year, of which the net profit of 22Q2 is 190-240 million yuan and 182 million yuan after deduction. The turnround in the first half of the year was mainly due to the increase in electricity sales and electricity prices over the same period last year, and the increase in electricity prices was higher than that in coal prices. To maintain the profit forecast, it is estimated that the net profit for 22-24 years will be 7.212.5 billion yuan and 3.62 billion yuan for BPS 3.34 and 3.46 respectively. With reference to the comparable 22-year average PB of 1.1x (Wind consensus expectation), the company is given a 22-year 1.1x target PB with a target price of 3.67 yuan (the previous value of 3.34 yuan is based on 22-year 1.0xPB) to maintain the "overweight" rating.
The price of thermal electricity is on the rise, and the units under construction are advancing as scheduled.
The company's thermal power units are mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi. From January to May 22, the thermal power generation capacity of the two provinces and regions is + 5.8% and + 8.0% respectively (data from the National Bureau of Statistics). It is expected that the thermal power generation capacity of the company shows a similar growth trend. Since September 21, the company's thermal power units have raised electricity prices one after another to cope with the rise in coal prices. The average price of electricity sold by 21Q4 has reached 367 yuan / MWh. With reference to the electricity transaction in the market from January to June 22, we expect the average price of electricity sold by 22Q1/Q2 to continue the price of 21Q4, which is 31% higher than that of the same period last year. The company's construction and approved installed capacity at the end of 21 years is about 25% of the operational capacity, of which Jingtai / Jingning II is expected to be put into production within 22 years, which will lead to a 15% year-on-year increase in shipping and installation at the end of the year.
Speed up the distribution of new energy and make a breakthrough in green power transactions.
Based on its location advantages, the company actively strives for the new energy development index of power transmission channel and the new energy allocation index of flexible transformation capacity, the new energy target of 2021 landed 1.3GW, and the cumulative announcement of 0.45GW photovoltaic power generation project was announced from January to April in 22 years. In July, the company achieved a breakthrough in Beijing regional green power trading business, participating in 900 million kilowatt-hours of green power trading in northern Hebei, ranking first in the region in terms of scale.
The profit is expected to be repaired and the overweight rating is maintained.
The fundamentals of the thermal power industry are gradually bottomed out, and the company's 22Q1/Q2 performance continues to improve significantly, which is expected to turn losses into profits for the whole year. Comparable company 22-year PB average 1.1x (Wind consensus expectations), the company's current stock price corresponds to 22-year 0.99xPB. The company has high-quality thermal power assets, giving the company 22-year 1.1xPB, with a target price of 3.67 yuan per share (the previous value is 3.34 yuan, based on 22-year 1.0xPB). Maintain the overweight rating.
Risk tips: the increase in coal prices is higher than expected, the number of hours of utilization is declining, and the progress of projects under construction is not as expected.