Main points of investment
Event summary: recently, Wantong formally signed the relevant agreement to control Chengdu Zhirong Technology Co., Ltd. by means of capital increase. Zhirong Technology is also another key fulcrum in the strategic layout of Wantong development in the transformation of digital technology.
Holding Zhirong Technology, prospective layout of phased array Tamp R chip and other key links: according to the latest investor exchange summary of Wantong development, Zhirong Science and Technology is a national high-tech enterprise specializing in millimeter wave integrated circuit design. Committed to providing high-performance chip-level solutions for the new generation of flat panel array antenna systems and millimeter wave communication systems At present, the products gradually include, but are not limited to, phased array Tracer R chips, RF front-end chips, power amplifier chips, etc., as well as the professional design capability of array antennas, which can provide industry-leading and scalable chip-level solutions for millimeter wave phased array antennas, helping to promote the industry and application of satellite Internet and 5G/6G millimeter wave. Zhirong Technology has released a number of satellite communications BFIC products in the Ku and Ka bands, and a number of customers are using Zhirong technology chip products to develop prototypes, and have signed purchase letters of intent and business contracts with Zirong Technology. We believe that Holdings Zhirong Technology will further accelerate the transformation of Wantong's development strategy and promote the steady progress of satellite Internet strategy.
The development of domestic satellite Internet is accelerated, and the market demand increases steadily: BFIC is a key link in satellite payload and ground terminal equipment, and the demand will increase steadily with the acceleration of satellite Internet in the future. According to the latest investor exchange summary of Wantong development, the price of BFIC chips is 300-500 yuan per piece. When the demand increases to 100000 sets of equipment, with the gradual emergence of economies of scale, the price of BFIC is about 30 yuan per piece. Assuming that 500 BFIC are used in each satellite Internet terminal, it is estimated that there will be 100000 sets of grade equipment in the market in 2023-2024, and the size of the corresponding chip market is about 1.5 billion yuan. By 2024-2025, there may be 1 million sets of equipment in the market, and the corresponding chip market size is about 10 billion yuan. It is expected that the market share of the leading enterprises will be 30-40%. The estimated revenue scale or market opportunity point for the leading enterprises is 100-200 million yuan, 450-600 million yuan, and 3-4 billion yuan respectively. In the future, with the maturity of the whole market, the steady-state net interest rate will be about 30%. With the gradual advance of domestic satellite Internet communications, market demand may grow exponentially. We believe that Zirong Technology currently has advantages in technology and products. As an important support for the transformation of Wantong's development strategy, we continue to be optimistic about the steady development of Wantong in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the current strategic transformation is progressing steadily, so we maintain the homed net profit of 211 million yuan, 243 million yuan and 285 million yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024, with the corresponding PE valuation of 88X/76X/65X respectively. We continue to be optimistic about the strategic transformation of Wantong development and the card position in the key links of satellite Internet, so we maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the progress of strategic transformation is not as expected; the progress of the project is not as expected.
