This report is read as follows:
Self-owned assets are undervalued, the sale of land and changes in the fair value of construction investment properties in the first half of the year are all reflected. In addition, the substantial increase in non-profit reflects the improvement of development property carry-over and rental income, and the desolation of assets is still the preferred target.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the overweight rating and maintain the target price to 11.81 yuan. The company's parent net profit increased 80% to 10.9-1.27 billion, in line with expectations. In the first half of the year, the spin-off underestimated the investment income of self-owned properties, maintaining the 2022-2024 profit forecast of 0.60 pounds 0.73 pounds 0.88 yuan. The asset shortage phase will usher in a revaluation, with a reasonable valuation of 35.5 billion yuan and a corresponding target price of 11.81 yuan.
Deducting non-net profit increased significantly compared with the same period last year, and the transfer of assets and changes in fair value are still the main sources of profits. 1) the scale of the company's settlement has expanded, and the non-net profit has increased by 120-240% to 1.5-230 million, and it is expected that the net profit margin of the settlement project will also be repaired to some extent; 2) the transfer of the Ritz-Carrey Hotel will confirm a return of 780 million. The company still has two undervalued high-end hotel assets. 3) after the completion of the Jing'an Rongyue Center, it will hold and operate, contributing 120 million of the fair value change. at present, the company is building more than 200,000 investment real estate, which is about 15% of the current investment real estate construction, and will continue to contribute fair value change income.
Assets desolation core assets revaluation, underestimate the realization of operating assets, enhance the value of the company. 1) 2022 social finance and M2 growth are expected to hang upside down again, the shortage of low-risk assets will be interpreted, while assets with stable cash flow will be valued, the fair value of office assets in the company's core location will be revalued, and it is expected that there is still an opportunity to sell and recognize profits. 2) operating assets such as hotels are expected to suffer a slight loss under the impact of the epidemic, but due to their low value in the statement, they can still be sold to improve the efficiency of the use of funds, while significantly recognizing the return on investment.
The logic of rental income increase will be verified. With the central rental rate of Financial Street rising to more than 95%, and the rapid increase in property rents during the business-raising period, look at the realization of rent growth in the middle of the year.
Risk tips: the opening of shadow banking, return to the old path of land finance; the epidemic is out of control and rents are falling.
