The company issued a 22-and-a-half-year performance forecast. 22H1 expects to achieve a net loss of 97 million yuan to 103 million yuan, down 2.59% to 8.94% compared with the same period last year, and to deduct a net loss of 1.34% to 140 million yuan, down 29.87% and 35.68% from the same period last year. Government subsidies to reduce the company's cash pressure, adjust the performance commitment period shows the company's long-term planning, the epidemic is gradually stable and the summer peak season is approaching, the company's domestic business recovery is expected to accelerate recovery, we maintain the company's overweight rating.
Support the main points of rating
Entry and exit cross-provincial travel are both fused, and the company's main business is under pressure. Affected by the prevention and control of the epidemic, the entry and exit group business has not yet resumed operation, 22H1 domestic epidemic frequently caused inter-provincial travel circuit breakers, the company's business travel and accommodation business is blocked. With the precision of the inter-provincial circuit breaker mechanism and the cancellation of travel cards, the number of business travelers has increased, which is conducive to speeding up the recovery process of the company's business.
Extend the performance commitment to ensure sustainable development. Considering the repeated epidemic situation in various parts of the country in 2021, the main business of the company's travel agency was greatly affected, the company adjusted its performance commitments with Shanxi Hyundai CITS, Xi'an Qinfeng CITS, Wuhan Flying Holiday, Sichuan New Territories CITS and Shanghai Shenshen CITS, and extended the performance commitment for 2021-2022 by one year. This round of adjustment reflects the company's confidence in epidemic prevention and control and the recovery of the tourism market, ensures the sustainable development of travel agencies, and is conducive to safeguarding the company's long-term interests.
Government bail-outs increase cash flow, innovation and transformation accumulate energy and increase momentum. 22H1 estimates that the impact of non-profit and loss on the company's net profit is 37 million yuan, and the main project is government subsidies. as of May 31, the company and its subsidiaries have received unaudited government subsidies totaling 40.6022 million yuan, accounting for 31.77% of the 2021 net profit, and in the form of cash, which is conducive to improving the adequacy of cash flow.
In order to deal with the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, 22H2 is expected to continue to adhere to innovative transformation and continue to promote the construction of the company's pan-tourism ecosystem.
Valuation
The company suffered a loss due to the repeated impact of the 22H1 domestic epidemic on its performance, but at present, the domestic epidemic situation has gradually stabilized, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism has introduced a precise circuit breaker policy, the new epidemic prevention plan has been implemented on the ground, and the itinerary card has been cancelled. Positive factors such as star marks have been cancelled, and the company's 22H2 domestic tourism key business is expected to recover quickly. We maintain the company's EPS of 0.31 EPS 0.55 and 0.69 yuan in 22-24. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratio is 32.6 pound 18.2 times earnings 14.6 times, maintaining the overweight rating.
Main risks faced by rating
The recovery of outbound tourism is not as expected, the competition in the domestic tourism market is intensified, and the COVID-19 epidemic is at risk again and again.