2022H1 performance increases sharply, demand growth drives product volume and price to rise, maintaining "buy" rating
On July 13, the company issued a half-year performance forecast for 2022, which is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB2.20-250 million, an increase of 258.8% and 307.8% over the same period last year, while Q2 is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 1.00-130 million in a single quarter, an increase of 172.6% and 254.7% over the same period last year. We keep the profit forecast unchanged. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 521 million yuan, 827 million yuan and 1.169 billion yuan, and the EPS is 1.55,2.46,3.48 yuan per share, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 17.5,11.0,7.8 times of PE in 2022-2024. In the first half of 2022, thanks to the steady growth of downstream demand, the company's silane product orders rose in volume and price; in the second half of the year, the company's second set of 50,000t / a trichlorosilicon (including photovoltaic grade) and supporting projects will be put into production one after another. we are optimistic about the continuous optimization of the company's product structure, steadily growing into a platform functional silane supplier and maintaining the "buy" rating.
The cost advantage of the company is obvious, and the high demeanor of trichlorosilane continues to provide strong support for silane price. with continuous technological improvement, the company has taken the lead in realizing the chlorine locking cycle of silane industry chain in China. circular economy, industrial chain extension and production capacity scale help the company to maintain a strong low-cost advantage. According to the company announcement, 2022H1 continues to optimize the production process, production efficiency and one-time yield of products are further improved, and the comprehensive cost continues to decline. Due to the intensive production of downstream polysilicon manufacturers, the average market price of industrial and photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon rose from 12,000 yuan / ton and 17,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 19,000 yuan / ton and 27000 yuan / ton in June. Trichlorosilicon is the core raw material of the company's silane products, and its high bearing provides strong support for the price of the company's products. We expect that with the release of polysilicon capacity under construction, the tight supply and demand structure of 2022H2 trichlorosilicon will continue, and the price of the company's silane products will continue to benefit.
2022H2's second trichlorosilicon plant and its supporting projects will be put into production one after another, and the company's product structure will continue to be optimized. according to the company announcement, the second set of trichlorosilicon plant with higher added value of 2022H2 Co., Ltd. has a higher value-added second set of trichlorosilicon plant per year. And supporting 10,000 cubic meters / year aerogel project (partial release), 9000 tons / year aminosilane project, 30,000 tons / year special silane project, 20,000 tons / year gaseous silica and 20,000 tons / year high temperature silicone rubber project will be put into production one after another.
The company's second trichlorosilicon plant can produce photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon, and the successive commissioning of multiple projects is expected to increase profits for the company in the second half of the year. The company's steady expansion in the horizontal and vertical direction of the industrial chain will further enhance the company's cost advantage, optimize the company's product structure and improve the overall profit level.
Risk tips: capacity release is not as expected, product prices are falling sharply, and downstream demand is flagging.