According to Bloomberg, a model tracked by JPMorgan Chase (JPMorgan Chase) shows that the US economy is more than 50% likely to fall into recession in the next two years.

Its researchers wrote in a report this week that the probability that the US economy will fall into recession within the next year is around 28%, but this probability will rise to over 60% in the next two years, and will rise further to over 80% in the next three years.

J.P. Morgan's model covers a number of indicators, including consumer and business confidence, labor participation rate of middle-aged men, wage growth, and the share of durable goods sales and infrastructure in GDP. J.P. Morgan's indicator is more pessimistic than the recession tracking index tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The latter indicator shows that the probability that the US economy will recession within the next year is 14.5%.

(Editor: Wu Dongxia)