[important data]
[Zhitong]Viewpoint】
1. The market has been adjusted for too long, and if we watch the A-share plunge every day, the mood in the Hong Kong stock market is naturally not good, but if we look at the performance of the Hang Seng Index objectively, the Hang Seng Index has not dived with the A-share in recent trading days. It is just that the Hang Seng Index often opens high and goes low. Whether it is investors who see the good rush into the market or investors who have been resisting until now, they are naturally even more bearish to the market after repeated ravages.In this magazine's view, the stabilization of this position is actually reasonable. Last week, an issue mentioned that some of the better weights have reached a reasonable price, and it is very difficult to kill. Second, after continuous adjustment, in fact, many stocks are in the oversold range. Therefore, the falling resistance is not weak carefully, but if we say that it contains the basis for a rebound, it still depends on the performance of A-shares. If A-shares do not bounce, it is very difficult for Hong Kong stocks to bounce. As for reversal, there is no such basis at present. In fact, in this magazine's view, it is better for US stocks to adjust as soon as possible, so that Hong Kong stocks can also complete the downward leap from reasonable to cheap, and then everyone will be happy to start anew.
two。 Yesterday, the Ministry of Finance released data on fiscal and tax revenue. Fiscal revenue increased by 2%, tax revenue increased by 6%, and VAT grew by-1.2%. With reference to the changes in VAT rates after May, the decline in VAT in September cannot be ruled out because of the impact of economic data. But what the media did not mention is that the consumption tax increased by 15.38% and the personal income tax increased by 20.82%. From this point of view, just as it is not deleveraging but transferring leverage, the focus of taxation is actually shifting. If personal income tax and consumption tax continue to grow at a high rate, it would be nice to increase the proportion of consumption in the economy.
[company news]
1. China Rallway (00390) recently won a bid of 45.2 billion yuan for a major project.
two。 Golly Pharmaceutical-B (01672): the application for the listing of new drugs of lavedavir has been included in the priority review list of the State Food and Drug Administration.
3. Rongchuang plans to take over four more Wanda cultural travel cities and the number of national cultural travel city projects will increase to 17.
4. China Natural Gas (00931) signs strategic cooperation agreement with Norwegian company DNV GL
5. Shimao Real Estate (00813) spent HK $14.77 million to buy back 1 million shares on October 18.
6. Xuhui Holdings Group (00884) spent HK $14.6 million to buy back 5 million shares on October 18.
7. China car Rental (00699) spent HK $14.237 million to buy back 2.3 million shares on October 18.
8. Qianhai Health (00911) spent HK $874.8 to buy back 2000 shares on October 18.
9. China Gas (00384) spent HK $8.0942 million to buy back 369000 shares on October 18.
10. Lee Fook International (01212) spent HK $7.278 million to buy back 501500 shares on October 18.
11. Longguang property (03380) spent HK $5.737 million to buy back 800000 shares on October 18.
twelve。 Liwen Paper (02314) spent HK $5.53 million to buy back 822000 shares on October 18.
13. Kang Zhe Pharmaceutical (00867) spent HK $4.479 million to buy back 500000 shares on October 18.
14. Leyou Technology Holdings (01089) spent HK $1.958 million to buy back 1 million shares on October 18.
[financial report Express]
1. China Merchants Land (00978) sales of 7.394 billion yuan in the third quarter increased by 85% over the same period last year.
two。 The profit attributable to shareholders of Stone four Pharmaceutical Group (02005) increased by 42% to 647 million yuan in the first three quarters compared with the same period last year.
3. Ping An Insurance's premium income increased by 19.1% to 561.54 billion yuan in the first 9 months of 02318.
4. China Tower Corporation (00788) net profit attributable to shareholders increased 16.7% to 1.961 billion yuan in the first three quarters compared with the same period last year.
5. Liufu Group (00590) same-store sales of retail business increased by 14% in the second fiscal quarter.
6. Domestic power generation in the first three quarters of Huaneng International Power (00902) increased by 11.04% year-on-year to 326.755 billion kWh.
7. Huadian International Power Co., Ltd. (01071) accumulated power generation increased by 8.79% to 155 million MW hours in the first three quarters compared with the same period last year.
8. Salsa International (00178) Retail and Wholesale Business turnover increased by 8.5% in the second quarter
9. Electrolytic copper production of Minmetals Resources (01208) increased by 7% to 112600 tons in the first 9 months compared with the same period last year.
10. China Rallway (00390) the cumulative value of newly signed contracts increased by 5.9% to 951.3 billion yuan in the first nine months compared with the same period last year.
11. Plate sales of Maanshan Iron and Steel (00323) increased by 5.17% to 7.32 million tons in the first three quarters.
twelve。 China Electric Power Clean Energy (00735) increased 1.18% to 7.7329 million MW hours in the first three quarters of the year.
13. Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (01929) same-store sales in the mainland fell 2% from July to September, while same-store sales in Hong Kong and Macao increased by 13%.
[macro and Industry]
1. [the growth rate of fiscal and tax revenue in September reached a new low this year, and value-added tax grew negatively compared with the same period last year.] the Ministry of Finance said that with the gradual landing of the policy of tax cuts and fee cuts, the growth rate of fiscal revenue dropped significantly in the second half of the year. In September, revenue grew by 2%, the lowest so far this year. In the second half of the year, the growth rate of tax revenue slowed month by month, with tax revenue rising 6 per cent in September, the lowest level so far this year, with domestic value-added tax falling 1.2 per cent year-on-year, and non-tax revenue also falling significantly, falling 10.9 per cent in September from a year earlier. The growth rate of domestic value-added tax in September has changed from positive to negative, falling by 1.2%.
2. [Goldman Sachs Group raised his forecast for liquefied natural gas by 50 per cent in 2019] Goldman Sachs Group sharply raised his spot price estimate for liquefied natural gas (LNG), raising his closely watched Platts Japan / Korea Index (JKM) forecast by 52 per cent to $9.50 per million British thermal units (mmbtu) in 2019, raising his 2020 forecast by 43 per cent to $8.55 per mmbtu, and raising his UK natural gas price forecast.
3. [CICC: car sales in China in the fourth quarter are expected to fall 10% year on year or to meet the inflection point of the industry in the second quarter of next year] China International Capital Corporation said that car sales in the fourth quarter of this year are expected to fall 10% year on year because of the high base affected by the withdrawal of purchase tax in the same period last year. The inflection point of the industry may come in the next peak demand season in the second quarter of next year, and raw material prices will also fall. Sales are expected to fall 11.9%, 12.5% and 9.9% respectively in the October-December period, and 3% for the whole year. New energy, luxury, Japan and Germany are strong, while traditional fuel and independent brands are weak. It is expected that the follow-up differentiation pattern of market segments will continue. If sales fall by 10% in the fourth quarter, many car companies will face a trade-off between price and sales. For luxury brands, due to the previous increase in discounts, they are more likely to choose price insurance for Volkswagen joint ventures and independent brands, based on the importance of the brand. there is still room for price reduction, and sales promotion is more likely to drive sales. For heavy trucks, to maintain the sales forecast of 90-1 million vehicles next year, the biggest variables in the market are still environmental protection policies and emissions upgrading.
4. [first-and second-tier land flow standards set a new high this year, enterprises still have enthusiasm for taking land] not only in Hong Kong, but also in first-and second-tier cities in the mainland, residential land flow standards have set a new record for the same period. With the deepening of the regulation and control of the property market, there are more and more residential land flow marks in hot cities. According to the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center statistics show that: so far, the residential land transaction premium rate in most cities has been significantly reduced in 2018. In particular, in first-tier cities, of the 150 residential land transactions, the average premium rate is only 7.64%, compared with 16.96% and 66.9% in the past two years. Zhang Bo, chief analyst of 58 Anju Guest Room property Research Institute, believes that there are no more than two reasons for the reduction of land premium rate, one of which is that housing enterprises are more cautious about the future of the market, and the other is that the government adjusts accordingly in the link of land transfer.
5. [the NDRC reports the first batch of incremental distribution network pilot projects: grid enterprises or local government investment platforms are not recommended] the NDRC requires that all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) speed up the pilot work of incremental distribution business and achieve the landing of the project as soon as possible. The incremental power distribution project that has not yet been determined must identify the project owner through market-oriented methods such as public bidding, implement the requirement of liberalizing the incremental power distribution business to social capital, and do not recommend power grid enterprises or local government investment platform holding. The first batch of pilot projects should identify the project owners and define the scope of power supply by the end of October 2018, be completed and put into operation by the end of June 2019, and the second and third batches of pilot projects should be accelerated.
6. [China Shipbuilding Industry Association: the shipping market is expected to pick up slightly in the fourth quarter] according to the data released by the China Shipbuilding Industry Association on October 18, China's shipbuilding capacity utilization monitoring index (CCI) was 601 points in the third quarter of 2018, down 8.1% from the same period last year and 1.6% from the previous year. It is expected that the shipping market will pick up slightly in the fourth quarter of 2018, and the demand for new shipbuilding market is expected to grow.
7. [45 paper mills across the country have comprehensively reduced the purchase price of waste paper by up to 200 yuan / ton.] from October 15 to 17, the purchase price of waste paper from 49 paper mills across the country showed that except 4 paper mills increased by 50-100 yuan per ton, the purchase prices of the rest of the paper mills were reduced in an overall range of 30-200 yuan per ton. (Huayin carton)
[major shareholders increase or decrease their holdings]
CRRC Corporation (01766) was increased by 7.42 million shares by JPMorgan Chase & Co on October 11, and the latest number of shares is about 219 million shares.
Ma'anshan Iron and Steel (00323) was increased by 8.02 million shares by JPMorgan Chase & Co on October 12, with the latest holding of 87.11 million shares.
Country Garden Holdings (02007) was increased by 3 million shares by Concrete Win Ltd on October 12, and the latest number of shares is about 9.446 billion shares.
Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) was increased by 640000 shares by Guo Jili on October 16, and the latest number of shares is about 648 million shares.
China Vanke (02202) was increased by 180000 shares by Investec Asset Management Ltd on October 11, with the latest holding of 65.85 million shares.
China Olympic Garden (03883) was increased by 10 million shares by JOY PACIFIC GROUP LTD on October 16, with the latest holding of about 1.465 billion shares.
Kaisa Group (01638) increased its total holdings of 8.7 million shares by Dachang Investment on 11 and 15 October, with the latest holding of about 702 million shares.
Juteng International (03336) was increased by 2 million shares by Bank of Communications Trustee Ltd on October 12, with the latest holding of about 184 million shares.
Aluminum Corporation Of China Ltd (02600) was reduced by 7.07 million shares by The Capital Group on October 16, and the latest number of shares is about 275 million shares.
Hengan Internationgal Group (01044) was reduced by 2.78 million shares by The Capital Group on October 15, with the latest holding of 57.61 million shares.
Sinotrans (00598) was reduced by 4.23 million shares by JPMorgan Chase & Co on October 11, with the latest holding of about 149 million shares.
[big Bank rating]
HSBC: public stock recommendation Changjian (01038) and CK Hutchison (00001) Electric Power (00006) downgraded to "hold"
Foreign exchange certificate: raise oil price forecast for this year CNOOC (00857) target to HK $19.76
CICC: maintain China Petroleum & Chemical Corp's (00386) target price of HK $8.90 and "recommended" rating
Nomura: China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (00386) dividend return is expected to reach 8% to maintain the "buy" look at HK $8.80.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch: maintain China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (00386) "Buy" rating recommend CNOOC (00883)
Morgan Stanley: foreign exchange control (00005) third quarter pre-tax profit is expected to rise 26% year-on-year to reiterate the "overweight" rating.
Deutsche Bank: maintain CNAC (02357) "Buy" rating target price raised to 6.70 yuan
Daiwa: the growth of domestic insurance premiums is expected to slow in the third quarter, and China Taiping is the first choice for the industry (00966).
Goldman Sachs Group: the target price for the "buy" rating of Hua Medicine (02552) is 13 yuan.
Daiwa: downgrade the target price of BOC Aviation Lease (02588) to 67 yuan to maintain the "buy" rating
Lyon: give Country Garden Services Holdings a "buy" rating of 06098, with a target price of 16.8RMB
[transaction alarm]
Fuhui Construction Holdings (01034) Dragon Resources (01712), INNOVENT BIO (01801) in the IPO.
OCC CABLES (01791), STERLING GP (01825) and MOS HOUSE (01653) are listed on the 19th.
Oriental University City Holdings (08067), Zhaojin Mining (01818), Zhengzhou Bank (06196), Changhong Jiahua (08016), China Resources cement Holdings (01313) results announced.
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