Event description
According to the company's half-year performance forecast for 2022, it is expected to achieve operating income of 125 million yuan to 135 million yuan, an increase of 2.62% to 10.83% over the same period last year; the net profit of returning mother is 3.5 million yuan to 5 million yuan, a decrease of 86.84% to 81.21% over the same period last year; and the net profit of deducting non-returning mother is-6 million yuan to-9 million yuan, a decrease of 124.68% to 137.02%.
Event comment
Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, income growth slowed down. During the reporting period, the company was greatly affected by the epidemic situation of COVID-19. From the middle of March to the end of May 2022, the epidemic situation of COVID-19 in Shanghai was grim, and the global static management was gradually implemented. As the company's main production base is located in Shanghai, a large number of customer groups are also concentrated in and around Shanghai, but affected by external logistics control, as well as customers affected by the local implementation of control measures can not normally operate to receive mice, during the epidemic in Shanghai, the company in addition to a small number of non-local customers can deliver goods, customers in Shanghai area delivery difficulties. Although the company has fully resumed work and production since June, some revenue recognition has been delayed due to the dissent period. On the whole, the company's revenue side has been greatly affected in the second quarter.
The scale of production is expanded and profits are under short-term pressure. The model animal industry is in the business cycle, and the company is also in the stage of rapid growth.
In order to meet the growing market demand, the company actively expands its production capacity to provide adequate follow-up protection for production and sales. In 2021, the number of cages in the company was about 50,000. In the second half of 2021, the Jinshan base of the fund-raising project was completed and put into production, adding about 50,000 cages. In the first half of 2022, the Zhongshan base in Guangdong was put into production, with an increase of about 9,000 cages. The expansion of the production scale has led to a rise in depreciation and amortization, energy and labor costs, and a sharp rise in production costs. in addition, mouse feeding is different from other businesses, and the feeding expenses under the epidemic still have to be paid continuously. therefore, under the influence of production capacity expansion and epidemic situation, the company's production costs have risen sharply, and profits are under pressure in the short term. Looking to the future, with the gradual release of the company's production capacity, profitability is expected to increase; at the same time, the company will strengthen cost control to balance the speed of capacity expansion and its impact on the company's operating performance.
It is estimated that the company's operating income from 2022 to 2024 will be 359 million yuan, 488 million yuan and 673 million yuan, an increase of 30.2%, 36.2% and 37.7% over the same period last year. The net profit of the company will be 70 million yuan, 98 million yuan and 141 million yuan, up 14.5%, 40.3% and 43.3% over the same period last year. The current stock price corresponds to 89 times, 63 times and 44 times of PE, respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint
1. COVID-19 's epidemic situation has a negative impact on the company's operation.
2. the competition in the industry has intensified.
3. Risk of failure in new product research and development
4. The growth rate of the industry has slowed down, and the performance growth has fallen short of expectations.