[matters]
Recently, Nantong starfish Electronics Co., Ltd. issued a performance forecast that the net profit of 2022H1 is expected to increase by 4200 to 50 million yuan compared with the same period last year, an increase of 48.45% to 57.68% over the same period last year. Net profit deducted from the same period last year will increase by 36.5 million yuan to 42.5 million yuan, an increase of 45.15% to 52.57% over the same period last year.
[comments]
Emerging markets maintain a high demeanor, contributing to the continuous optimization of the product structure. Due to the good growth momentum of demand from downstream emerging markets (photovoltaic power generation, new energy vehicles, etc.), the company has greatly reduced the impact of energy consumption control by continuously optimizing product structure and deepening lean management (mainly foil bases in Sichuan and Ningxia, Sichuan is dominated by hydroelectric power, Ningxia is a hybrid power generation of thermal and photovoltaic power, dual-base layout can disperse operational risks and effectively control the company's energy costs). Ensure that orders are maximized for delivery. In the environment of repeated epidemics, it can still organize production and operation efficiently and maximize the advantage of production capacity. Taking the median of the performance forecast, the company's 2022H1 expects to achieve a return net profit of 133 million, an increase of 53.07% over the same period last year; deducting non-home net profit of about 120 million, an increase of 48.86% over the same period last year. From a single-quarter point of view, the company's Q2 is expected to achieve a net profit of 69 million yuan, a steady increase of 7.88% from a month earlier, and a non-return net profit of about 63 million yuan, an increase of 8.81% from a month earlier.
Cater to market opportunities and actively expand production, with a substantial increase in the proportion of emerging sectors. According to the information previously disclosed by the company, in recent years, the company has made continuous breakthroughs in the introduction of products in emerging application areas through continuous R & D investment, and through the construction of production expansion projects, at present, the output of products in emerging application areas has accounted for more than 1/3 of the total revenue. The company also plans to implement the production expansion project in Ningxia base with a total investment of no more than 1.5 billion yuan, adding 72 new high-performance electrode foil production lines and supporting engineering facilities, mainly used in new energy, big data, cloud computing and other fields. The project is expected to be built in two phases, and the first phase is scheduled to reach production in October 2023. After the project reaches full production, the annual production capacity of electrode foil will be increased by about 19 million square meters.
Combined with the current actual production capacity of the company, it is expected that business in emerging markets will account for about 50% of total revenue in the future.
The results of R & D investment show that high-end products can fully meet the downstream performance needs. In order to save volume, vehicle equipment, charging piles, photovoltaic inverters and other products are accelerating the demand for miniaturized, high capacity, high thermal stability and low ESR Cayman Limited automotive capacitor components. Take the automobile ECU as an example, when the car is driven, it will be affected by the radiant heat of the engine and work in a high temperature environment. If the external temperature is low, it needs to have low temperature resistance. The high thermal stability, high capacity and long life of solid aluminum electrolytic capacitors are very suitable for the performance needs of all kinds of emerging markets. From the situation of starfish patent application, the company already has the manufacturing method of electrode foil for solid-state aluminum electrolytic capacitor, the production process can improve the quality of oxide film, maintain stable performance, and effectively improve the high-temperature stability of solid-state capacitor. With the continuous introduction of high-end products in the future, the company's profit level is expected to increase steadily.
[investment advice]
According to the performance forecast issued by the comprehensive company and the various drivers mentioned above, we estimate that the company's operating income in 2022, 2023, and 2024 will be 21.06, 26.63 / 3.316 billion, 3.02, 4.00 and 500 million, respectively, and the EPS will be 1.26, 1.67 and 2.09, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be as much as 18-14-11. Under the trend of the continuous development of emerging markets such as photovoltaic power generation, energy storage plate, new energy vehicles, and big data Center, with the accelerated release of capacity expansion, the company is expected to continue to enjoy the dividend of high prosperity in the industry. therefore, we continue to be optimistic about the high growth of the company's performance and maintain its "buy" rating.
[risk Tip]
The progress of the fund-raising project is not as expected.
The progress of new product R & D is not as expected.
The demand for aluminum electrolytic capacitors is lower than expected.
It is affected by the repeated epidemic situation and the policy of closure and control.