Refined from Oriental Securities: "the turning point of the transformation of the medical industry has arrived, and the medical information industry has ushered in a new round of golden development period."
1. The current situation of the domestic medical IT industry: there is still much room for improvement in the application level of the industry, policy support, and rising demand!
1) from the overall construction stage, domestic hospitals are in transition from the HIS construction stage to the clinical information and data integration stage, and will enter the intelligent stage supported by big data and artificial intelligence in the future. From the perspective of application level, the results of grade evaluation and interconnection maturity evaluation of electronic medical records in hospitals are not very ideal, the number and proportion of high-level standards are very low, and most institutions are in the primary application level. there is a lot of room for improvement in the application level of medical information.
2) the Health Commission issued various policies directly related to informatization, such as clear requirements for the application level of electronic medical records and the evaluation results of connectivity in hospitals at all levels.
3) with the deepening of medical reform, changes such as graded diagnosis and treatment and payment system reform also bring reverse pressure and promotion to the construction of information system; the deep spontaneous demand of hospitals to improve efficiency and clinical diagnosis and treatment level through information system is also increasing.
4) the proportion of hospital medical information investment in China is increasing year by year, but it is still at a low level. According to our grassroots research, hospitals invest about 0.3-2% of their income in information construction every year, and the proportion of investment tends to increase, especially in tertiary and secondary hospitals, where the proportion of investment is about 1-2%. The larger the hospital, the higher the proportion of software invested, and the smaller the hospital, the higher the proportion of hardware. Compared with the level of 3-5% investment in developed countries, there is still much room for improvement in the development of domestic medical informatization.
2. Outlook for the future: the medical information industry will maintain a high demand boom, the industry will grow steadily and rapidly, and the concentration will continue to improve.
1) according to IDC estimates, the total expenditure on medical informatization in China will increase from 28.724 billion yuan to 43.001 billion yuan from 2016 to 2020, with a CARG of 10.6%, of which software and technical services will grow from 7.58 billion yuan to 14.821 billion yuan, and CARG will reach 18.2%, maintaining a relatively high growth rate.
2) the market concentration is expected to increase, which will benefit the manufacturers who have the advantages of products and channels. In the early stage of the development of the industry, on the one hand, the primary information system is relatively simple, and the threshold to enter the industry is low; on the other hand, the regulatory pattern of regional division of public hospitals and the demand for local services, the phenomenon of local separation is also more serious. Therefore, the industry market concentration is relatively low, with the upgrading of hospital demand, hospital informatization to intelligent, platform, Internet of things, mobile development, the industry threshold is raised; at the same time, the capitalization of the top medical information manufacturers and the acceleration of national layout promote the continuous improvement of market concentration.
3. Conclusion: Internet + 's medical and health industry has ushered in an inflection point, and medical information company will play an important role.
1) since 2015, Internet enterprises and medical institutions have actively distributed Internet medical care, and achieved good penetration in areas such as online registration and mobile payment, but have not yet penetrated into the core diagnosis and treatment process. With the "opinions on promoting the Development of Internet + Medical Health" issued by the State Council in April 2018, the specific content, development model, support system and industry supervision of Internet medical care have been clearly defined, and the industry has entered an official landing period.
2) after that, the Internet giants of BABA and Tencent have carried out business and capital cooperation with the leading domestic HIT companies, connecting the C-terminal traffic and payment channels of Internet enterprises with the diagnosis and treatment processes and data in the hospital through the information system, forming a close cooperative relationship, and creating a complete B2B2C model of Internet + 's medical and health care.
3) the medical information company connects hospitals, patients, drug service institutions, insurance institutions and constructs the "Internet + Medical and Health" service at the same time, through the provision of online diagnosis and treatment, prescription diversion, insurance docking and other services to obtain service fees or sharing business model, thus extending and expanding the new business model.