Performance preview
KuaiBao shows that 1H22 deducted non-homed net profit increased 36% Mel 50% compared with the same period last year. The company announced that 1H22 revenue is expected to reach 676 million yuan, with an increase of about 51%. Non-homed net profit is expected to reach 2000-22 million yuan, an increase of 36% 2Q22 50%. 2Q22 revenue is expected to achieve 357 million yuan, an increase of about 61%, and non-homed net profit to achieve 2057-22.57 million yuan, year-on-year / month-on-month to reverse losses.
We are optimistic that the company, as a leader in hot melt adhesive, is expected to continue its high growth with the continuous breakthrough of photovoltaic film production capacity and smooth access to major customers in the second half of the year. Medium-and long-term photovoltaic film, wall cloth and other multi-business is expected to jointly drive rapid growth.
Pay attention to the main points
1. Photovoltaic film and hot melt wall cloth continue to grow rapidly, driving the high increase of 2Q22 income. The business income of 1H22 photovoltaic film / hot melt wall covering increased by about 250%, 30%, 30%, 2Q22, respectively, and increased by about 375%, 16%, respectively, achieving rapid growth. We expect that: 1) photovoltaic film business: the installed capacity of photovoltaic downstream continues to grow rapidly. According to China's National Energy Administration, the cumulative photovoltaic installed 23.71GW from January to May increased by 139% compared with the same period last year. The price of raw materials such as EVA particles is running at a high level. The average shipping price of EVA film in the 2Q22 industry is up to 17.5 yuan per square meter, which is about 58% higher than the lowest average price of 2Q21. The company complies with the industry trend and raises the shipping price. The company also continues to obtain high-quality incremental customers, and we expect that the company's capacity utilization and shipments will continue to improve. 2) Wall cloth business: the company's wall cloth production capacity has increased smoothly, and we believe that with the continuous expansion of channels and the continuous increase in the number of dealers, wall cloth shipments are expected to improve and drive revenue growth.
2. The effect of reducing cost and improving efficiency is good, and 2Q22 deducts non-net profit to reverse losses compared with the same period last year. 2Q22 gross profit margin increased by about 5ppt compared with the first quarter, we expect to be mainly due to the continuous optimization of the company's cost control and the increase in the shipping price of photovoltaic film and other businesses; the company also continues to improve management efficiency, with a year-on-year decrease of about 5ppt and a decrease of 8ppt during the period. Due to the one-time non-recurrent profit and loss of about 55 million yuan brought about by the disposal of the company's 2Q21 fixed assets, the short-term high base caused the 2Q22 net profit to be under pressure compared with the same period last year. From a median point of view, we expect the 2Q22 company to achieve a median net profit of about 21.57 million yuan after deducting non-profit, which is about 6% after deducting non-profit.
Profit forecast and valuation
The profit forecast for 2022Universe will remain unchanged in 2023, and the current valuation corresponds to 16x PameE for 2022Universe. Based on the continuous improvement of the company's photovoltaic and other businesses, the target price will be raised by 9% to 14 yuan. The target price will correspond to 2022Universe 2023, with 20% upside space.
Risk.
Terminal demand is lower than expected; new capacity is not as expected; raw material prices fluctuate; cash flow risk.