Event description
The company issued an announcement on power generation data for June 2022: 5.484 billion kilowatt-hours were completed according to the consolidated statement in June 2022, an increase of 22.09% compared with the same period in 2021. The company completed a cumulative total of 36.305 billion kilowatt-hours in the first half of 2022, an increase of 9.66% over the same period in 2021.
Event comment
The growth rate of electricity has rebounded significantly from the previous month, and we are optimistic about the performance in the second quarter. In the second quarter, as the wind conditions continued to improve, the company's power generation growth rate was also significantly better than that in the first quarter. The company's wind power business power generation reached 15.073 billion kilowatt hours in the second quarter, a year-on-year growth rate of 15.92%, much higher than the 5.13% year-on-year growth rate in the first quarter. By the end of the first quarter of 2022, the company had installed 25.6614 million kilowatts of wind power, an increase of 14.80 percent over the same period last year. As the current new energy has comprehensively entered the parity development stage, the company's wind power installation growth rate is expected to remain stable in the second quarter compared with the same period last year, so the company's wind power generation growth rate may be relatively close to the installed growth rate, and the company's wind power utilization will remain stable in the second quarter. Driven by the company's wind power utilization hours remain stable year-on-year, and the installed scale continues to grow, it is expected that wind power business revenue and performance in the second quarter may reverse the negative growth in the first quarter compared with the same period last year. In addition to the continued improvement in the wind power business, the company's other renewable energy generation reached 499 million kilowatt hours in the second quarter, a year-on-year growth rate of 108.81%, an increase of 49.84% compared with the first quarter. On the one hand, the significant rebound in power generation growth is due to the rapid expansion of installed capacity, on the other hand, it may benefit from the gradual improvement of resource conditions such as lighting. In addition to the excellent performance of the renewable energy power generation business, the company's thermal power units continue to operate efficiently. Although the electricity demand of the whole society was affected by the epidemic in the second quarter, the company's thermal power generation still achieved an increase of 1.2% compared with the same period last year. The growth rate rebounded by 1.84 percentage points compared with the first quarter. Therefore, on the whole, the renewable energy generation and thermal power generation of the company in the second quarter were significantly repaired compared with the first quarter, and the company was optimistic about the performance in the second quarter and the first half of the year, driven by the continuous repair of electricity.
Endogenous extension, the company's fundamentals continue to improve. In 2021, the company added 56.46 million kilowatts of resources, an increase of 9.44 percent over the same period last year, and the cumulative development target for the whole year also exceeded 18.365 million kilowatts. With sufficient resource reserves, the company's new installed capacity in 2022 is expected to accelerate growth. In addition, the National Energy Group aims to add 7000 kilowatts to 80 million kilowatts during the 14th five-year Plan period, and China Longyuan Power Group Corporation, as the main body of clean energy development in the group, is bound to undertake more new energy construction tasks. it is estimated that the installed capacity of new energy will increase by about 3000 kilowatts during the 14th five-year Plan period. However, the group's plan to add 7000-80 million kilowatts of renewable energy during the 14th five-year Plan cannot actually meet the SASAC's requirements for 50% of the installed capacity of renewable energy in central enterprises, so if the group further raises the new plan of the 14th five-year Plan, then the installed growth rate of China Longyuan Power Group Corporation is expected to further increase. In addition, the Group has committed to inject other viable wind power businesses into China Longyuan Power Group Corporation within three years after the completion of the share swap and asset acquisition transactions. China Longyuan Power Group Corporation's external wind power assets total 2140.67 gigawatts. If China Longyuan Power Group Corporation completes the acquisition of the group's wind power assets during the 14th five-year Plan period, and does not consider the divestiture of thermal power assets, the company's installed capacity is expected to reach 78.08 million kilowatts by the end of 2025, with significant long-term growth space.
Investment advice and valuation: according to the electricity generation announcement to fine-tune the profit forecast, we expect the company's EPS to be 0.91,1.09 and 1.30 yuan respectively in 2022-2024, and the corresponding PE is 24.45,20.40,16.99 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint
1. The wind falls short of the expected risk
2. The risk of deterioration of power supply and demand.