Event
The company issues 2022 half-year performance forecast.
The company expects to achieve a net profit of 26.0-2.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2022, an increase of 184.38% Mur206.25% over the same period last year. Based on the performance forecast center, the corresponding Q2 single-quarter profit is 1.657 billion yuan, an increase of 149.79% over the same period last year and 58.94% month-on-month growth.
Brief comment
Soda ash, ammonium chloride boom continued, glyphosate maintained a high level, Q2 high performance increased soda ash, benefiting from a large number of photovoltaic glass production, Southeast Asian export demand increased greatly, soda ash prices in Q2 continued growth trend, according to Wind,Q2 heavy soda ash prices of 2790 yuan / ton, an increase of 925 yuan / ton, month-on-month growth of 264 yuan / ton. In terms of ammonium chloride, benefiting from the high prosperity of agrochemical industry, the price of ammonium chloride has continued to rise. according to Baichuan, the price of Q2 ammonium chloride is 1522 yuan / ton, an increase of 718 yuan / ton and a month-on-month increase of 261 yuan / ton. The company has 1.1 million tons of soda ash production capacity and 1.1 million tons of ammonium chloride production capacity, benefiting from the high product price boom, the soda business has increased rapidly. In terms of glyphosate, the company adopts the IDA method and has a complete industrial chain of double glyphosate and glyphosate, with a production capacity of 150000 tons and 50, 000 tons. In terms of price, the price of glyphosate fell first and then rebounded narrowly in the first half of the year. The average price of Q2 double glyphosate and glyphosate was 37566 yuan / ton and 63771 yuan / ton respectively, up 97% and 58% respectively compared with the same period last year, and decreased slightly by 9.2% and 13.5% respectively. In the first quarter, the company's production and sales of double glyphosate were 3.08 and 24800 tons respectively, and the production and sales of glyphosate were 1.55 and 9100 tons respectively. Relying on the unique natural gas, phosphorus, salt and other resource endowment advantages in Sichuan, where the company is located, the company is in the lead in cost control of its main business, such as Lianalkali and glyphosate, and the company's Q2 performance has increased rapidly under the background of high product prosperity.
In the construction of rich production capacity, photovoltaic, silicon wafer and other capacity will be released soon.
In terms of the project under construction, the Mabian Yanfeng phosphate rock project with an annual output of 1 million tons has been mined, realizing the further improvement of the glyphosate industry chain; in addition, the company has signed a 500,000 ton / year double glyphosate project with the Guang'an municipal government, which is expected to be completed in two years. Will further consolidate the company's global leading position in double glyphosate manufacturing. In the future, the company's achievements in the photovoltaic field will gradually show. Chongqing 8GW photovoltaic module and packaging material project adopts the integrated factory model of industry chain integration (opening photovoltaic glass and modules), and will be put into production in the third quarter of 2022. The ultra-high efficiency single crystal solar wafer technology produced by the Fuxing New Energy 10GW N+ ultra-high efficiency single crystal solar wafer project invested by the company is in the industry-leading level, the start-up scale of the project is about 1.5-2GW wafer, the construction of the integrated workshop is in the final stage, part of the equipment has already been installed, and trial production is expected to start in June.
The company's N-type silicon wafer products are suitable for TOPCon and HJT. At present, P-type battery efficiency gradually reaches the ceiling, N-type battery blossoms, HJT efficiency reaches a new high. With the domestic TOPCon, HJT production capacity has been put into production, the company N-type silicon wafer has a broad prospect.
Profit forecast and valuation: it is estimated that the return net profit of the company in 2022, 2023 and 2024 is 50.12,56.89 and 6.488 billion yuan respectively, the EPS is 0.57,0.64 and 0.73 yuan respectively, and the corresponding share price PE is 7.2X, 6.3X and 5.5X respectively. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuations; raw material fluctuations; the company's production capacity is not up to expectations.