Q2 performance hit a new high, photovoltaic industry layout is expected to increase the value to help growth, maintain the "buy" rating
On July 12, the company issued a half-year performance forecast for 2022, which is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 26.0-2.8 billion, an increase of 184.38%-206.25% over the same period last year. Q2 is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 15.57-1.757 billion in a single quarter, an increase of 134.84%, 165.00% and 49.28%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. We raise the profit forecast and estimate that the net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 50.09,55.19,6.394 billion yuan (original value 40.63,45.40,50.68), corresponding to EPS 0.57,0.62,0.72 yuan per share (original value 0.46,0.51,0.57). The current stock price corresponds to 7.2,6.5,5.6 times of PE in 2022-2024. The profitability of the company is leading in the industry, and the layout of the photovoltaic industry helps to improve the valuation. There is broad room for growth in the future, and the "buy" rating is maintained.
The price of the main product increases the advantage of superimposed resources, and the company's cost control ability contributes to a substantial increase in performance. According to the company's announcement, the year-on-year profit is mainly due to the increase in demand for soda ash, ammonium chloride, diglyphosate and glyphosate, and the price is much higher than the same period last year. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, 2022Q2, the average prices of the above products are 3036 yuan / ton, 1585 yuan / ton, 374,000 yuan / ton, 634 million yuan / ton, + 51.76%, + 97.22%, + 97.08%, + 58.31% respectively. Relying on the advantages of natural gas, phosphorus, salt and other resources in Sichuan, the company's products are cost-effective and profitable. In addition, the company's second phase of the employee stock ownership plan expects 2022H1 to recognize a fee of about 238 million yuan, which will be included in the profit or loss of the reporting period. We are always optimistic that with the advantages of salt resources, management and technology, the company will continue to improve its cost control ability and usher in a steady improvement in performance.
According to Fuyang online report, on June 18, Fuxing Technology 20GW N plus ultra-efficient single crystal solar wafer project single crystal silicon rod was successfully released, and the trial production was successful. The first phase of the project lasted 95 days from formal construction to successful trial production, creating a new record for construction speed and production speed in the same industry. As the country's first large-scale production of N+-type large-size, ultra-efficient solar single crystal silicon wafer, after officially completed and put into production, it can achieve an annual output value of about 20 billion yuan. The successful trial production of the project marks the further widening and lengthening of the industrial chain of Hebang Biology on the new energy track; its subsidiary, Wu Jun Guangneng, further accelerates the upgrading of the file in the new energy industry, further optimizes the company's industrial layout, and enhances the competitiveness of the enterprise. become the company's new business growth pole. We believe that with the orderly progress of a series of projects such as N-type silicon wafer and photovoltaic glass, the company's valuation is expected to be further improved and there is broad room for growth.
Risk tips: product prices fall, production capacity is not as expected, policy implementation is not as expected, and so on.