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协合新能源(0182.HK):价值低估的新能源电力运营企业

Cooperative New Energy (0182.HK): undervalued new energy power operator

第一上海 ·  Jul 13, 2022 19:02  · Researches

Xiehe New Energy Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 2006, is a renewable energy power operation-based listed company. The company focuses on wind power and photovoltaic power generation services. In 2021, the company holds 70 wind and photovoltaic power plants with an installed capacity of 2769 megawatts, of which the installed capacity of wind power is 2387 megawatts, accounting for 86% of its total installed capacity.

The company actively develops high-quality projects and enters the stage of high-quality and rapid development: Xiehe New Energy makes great efforts to develop renewable energy power generation business, with the trend of increasing installation of renewable energy, the company's electricity sales business will enter a stage of high-quality and rapid development in 2022-2024, and the company aims to add 9-1000 MW of equity installed capacity every year. The company plans to increase its equity installed capacity to 4800 megawatts in 2023, an increase of 73% over 2021. According to estimates, the annual return on the company's newly built wind power project rights and interests can reach 15-20%.

Continuous optimization of power generation costs and green card trading will improve project efficiency: in recent years, Xiehe New Energy has optimized asset quality through asset replacement, reduced power generation costs, sold power plants with relatively low utilization hours, and implemented technical transformation of wind turbine efficiency. The operation quality of the company's power plant has been greatly improved, and the average utilization hours of wind power has continued to grow. In 2021, the company's weighted average utilization hours of wind power was 2411 hours, an increase of 170hours over last year. 165 hours higher than the national average. In addition, as the company's parity projects continue to participate in green card transactions, the revenue level of the company's parity projects will be improved in the future.

Operation and maintenance business has great potential: as the largest third-party operation and maintenance company in China, the operation and maintenance capacity has exceeded 11 gigawatts, and the operation and maintenance income exceeds 10% of the company's total income, and has rich practical experience. In recent years, Xiehe operation and maintenance has reshaped wind power operation and maintenance management through comprehensive digital transformation, created competitive operation and maintenance service products, and ensured the sustainable growth of the enterprise. We expect the company's intelligent operation and maintenance business revenue to maintain an annual growth rate of 30% in the future.

The company is seriously undervalued, with a target price of HK $1.24, covering and giving a buy rating for the first time: with the rapid development of new energy renewable energy installation in the next three years and a project rate of return that is better than the industry average, we predict that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 27.8pm 40.9mm5.15 billion yuan, an increase of 27.3pm 4726.1% over the same period last year. The net profit of homing is 1.58 billion yuan respectively. Combined with the valuation of comparable companies in the industry, the company's PB in 2021 is 0.7 times, which is much lower than the industry average. Based on the 2023 earnings forecast, we give the company a target price of HK $1.24, which corresponds to 1.2x PB in 2021, equivalent to 5.6x PE in 2022-2024, and has 61 per cent room to rise from the current price.

Risk factors: the new installed capacity is not as expected, the electricity demand is not as expected, and the feed-in electricity price has dropped sharply.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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