On June 27, French President Marco Macron whispered to US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit that the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia could hardly increase oil production.

Western countries are staring at Saudi Arabia, hoping to fill a supply gap the size of Russia caused by the embargo. According to the UAE leadership forecast, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are the only OPEC member countries with spare oil capacity.

However, as the data statistics company Statista report showsSaudi Arabia has approached its announced maximum capacity of 12 million b / d in only one month in the past three years.This raises questions about Saudi Arabia's ability to quickly increase production to stabilize global markets.

And the output seems to confirm what French President Jean-Claude Macron said to Biden off the court:

"I spoke to the president of the United Arab Emirates, and he told me two things: the first isOil production capacity in the United Arab Emirates has reached its limit. The second isSaudi Arabia can also increase its oil production by 150000 barrels a day, or slightly more, but Saudi capacity is also close to its limit.。”

Biden will visit Saudi Arabia this week, and increasing global oil supplies will be at the top of the U.S. President's agenda. So far, the serious situation of oil supply caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not been alleviated.OPEC stuck to its slow production plan to reverse the global outbreaks between March and June and recently agreed to increase production quotas more quickly in the coming months.

Saudi Arabia's production quota in August 2022 was 11 million b / d, more than it has been for a long time, but still a full 1 million b / d below the country's maximum quota.

But perhaps even if the Saudis were able to increase production, they would choose not to.

Because if there is another "interruption", such as the recent political unrest in Libya, there will be inherent risks.Since this interruption cannot be compensated at all, it could lead to a more dramatic rise in oil prices.