Summary of events: on July 11, the company issued a performance forecast for its semi-annual report of 2022. During the reporting period, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 90 million yuan to 95 million yuan, an increase of 3.36% to 9.11% over the same period last year. Net profit after deducting non-recurring profits and losses was 82 million yuan to 87 million yuan, an increase of 5.33% to 11.75% over the same period last year.
Polyetheramine production capacity gradually resumed production, driving the second quarter performance month-on-month repair. 2022Q2 realized a net profit of 48.68 million yuan to 53.68 million yuan belonging to shareholders of listed companies, up 32.6% to 46.2% from a year earlier and 17.8% to 29.9% from a month earlier; net profit after deducting non-recurring profits and losses was 42.86 million yuan to 47.86 million yuan, up 33.1% from a year earlier and 9.5% from a month earlier, with an obvious profit recovery in a single quarter. Mainly due to: 1) continuous and orderly resumption of production in Huaian base, according to the company's announcement, all production lines of Huaian Chenghua have resumed production in a comprehensive and orderly manner since April 28, including 22700 tons of polyether, 10, 000 tons of polyether amine and 20, 000 tons of flame retardants. 2) the price of polyetheramine remained high and stable. according to Baichuan data, the average price of polyetheramine in 2021, 22Q1 and 22Q2 was 41143x36593 yuan / ton, up 22.8% from last year in the second quarter, and 11.1% lower than Q1 in the second quarter. Overall, the company's flame retardants, surfactants, silicone rubber and other business operations remained stable in the second quarter, and polyetheramine products contributed the main performance growth by volume premium.
Polyetheramine supply and demand structure imbalance, the second half of the wind power season is expected to further boost the scene. The concentration of polyetheramine industry is high, with a total global production capacity of about 280000 tons as of June 2022, with less new production capacity in 2022. Only 40,000 tons of new materials are expected to be put into operation in the second half of the year, resulting in weak supply elasticity. Domestic wind power bidding gradually entered the peak season from May to June this year, and the installed capacity of wind power is expected to increase significantly in the second half of the year. Polyetheramine will usher in a new round of seasonal supply and demand tension, and the boom is expected to rise again. At present, the company has a polyetheramine production capacity of 31000 tons (of which 3000 tons are under construction), which is the second largest in China (accounting for 31% of the domestic production capacity). Huaian Chenghua, a wholly-owned subsidiary, plans to expand 40, 000 tons of polyetheramine and 42000 tons of polyether projects. the company has obvious advantages in scale. Considering that the company's Huaian base has fully resumed production, we can fully enjoy the high prosperity of the industry.
Investment suggestion: under the high prosperity of the wind power industry, the company as the leading company in the domestic polyetheramine industry will fully benefit, we maintain the company's profit forecast, and it is estimated that the homing net profit in 2022-2024 will be 277000,000 yuan respectively, corresponding to the closing price of PE on July 11, which is 14x/14x/11x respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk hint: polyetheramine new production capacity to speed up production, resulting in a drop in product prices. The epidemic has repeatedly led to less than expected new wind power installations, thus reducing the demand for the company's products.
