The company expects to achieve a net profit of 2.8-330 million yuan in the first half of 2022, and 2.75-325 million yuan after deducting non-return net profit from yoy+16%-38%, yoy+19%-41%. The estimated net profit of Q2 is 1.8-230 million yuan, and the net profit of yoy+29%-65%, deduction is estimated to be 1.75-225 million yuan and yoy+32-70%.
The first phase of Chongqing production capacity continues to release, the scale of production and marketing continues to increase. Chongqing continues to release 200000 tons of capacity, and the scale effect will be reflected through the capacity climbing stage. The Chongqing plant has become a powerful supplement to the company's production capacity during the Shanghai epidemic in the second quarter, and the layout of the two places has been very effective.
The efficiency of management and organization is high, and the production of Shanghai factory is stable during the epidemic. The company has a production capacity of 140000 tons in Shanghai, and has maintained relatively stable production and sales during the epidemic closure period, effectively overcoming the negative impact of the epidemic in Shanghai in the second quarter, actively protecting and supplying downstream customers, and the brand and word-of-mouth continue to improve.
Lithium electricity structure continues to innovate, and the market demand opens the ceiling. In the second quarter of this year, Ningde released CTP3.0 Kirin battery to integrate the water-cooled plate into an elastic interlayer, realizing the four functions of support, cushioning, water-cooling and heat insulation, so that the heat exchange area has been expanded by four times, and the demand for water-cooled plate may be increased compared with the traditional structure. Through the highly integrated structure design, CTP3.0 Kirin battery pack volume utilization has increased from 55% to 72% compared with the first generation CTP battery, which is expected to play an exemplary effect and encourage more battery manufacturers to develop in this direction.
Take advantage of the success of capacity expansion to build a new phase II plant in Chongqing. The second phase of the 150000-ton production expansion project in Chongqing has been approved by the shareholders' meeting, and all the procedures for applying for approval of the project are under way, and it is estimated that it will take 2-3 years for the project to be completed, but after some equipment has been installed and debugged, the capacity bottleneck of the first phase of the equipment can be solved to a certain extent, thus forming an increase in production to meet the growing market demand.
It is estimated that the EPS of the company in 2022-2024 is 0.74,0.84,0.99 yuan (the original 2022-2023 is 0.74,0.86 yuan). According to the comparable company's valuation of 22x PE in 2022, the buy rating is maintained, with a target price of 16.28 yuan.
Risk hint
Chongqing factory capacity release lower than expected risk, aluminum plate, strip and foil processing fee less than expected risk, industry capacity release too fast risk, macroeconomic growth slowdown, the risk of repeated global epidemics.