Main points of investment:
Event: the company announced the 2022 half-year performance forecast, exceeding expectations. 1) 2022H1 is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 2.8-330 million, an increase of 16%, 38%, and a year-on-year increase of 19%, 41% and RMB 2.75-325 million, respectively. 2) 2022Q2 is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 1.8-230 million, an increase of 29%-65%, 72%-121% and 32%-70%, respectively, an increase of 76% and 127%, respectively.
To overcome the disturbance of the 22Q2 epidemic in Shanghai, the demand side and production side are normal, and the profit per ton is high. 22Q2 aluminum processing products are expected to ship 75000 tons, and the estimated profit per ton is 2363-3030 yuan per ton, a substantial increase over the profit of 1780 yuan per ton in 2021. 1) stable production of the Shanghai base: the company has a production capacity of 140000 tons in Shanghai. Under the 2022Q2 epidemic in Shanghai, the company has closed management, maintained the rhythm of production and sales, enhanced the purchasing confidence of downstream customers through stable supply protection, and 2) the Chongqing base was fully put into production to ensure supply. The Chongqing base has a full capacity of 200000 tons, alleviating the capacity gap during the epidemic in Shanghai. Chongqing has lower energy costs and higher finished product rates than the sea base. 3) benefit from the decline of aluminum price and the price difference between Shanghai and London: the pricing model of the company's products is aluminum price + processing fee. The price of aluminum ingot is usually based on the average price of aluminum ingot in a period of time before shipment / order / settlement, and the aluminum price falls after 4 months. The company's profits recover. Affected by the European energy crisis and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of aluminum in April-May is higher than that in Shanghai. About 1% of the company's products are exported overseas, the pricing basis of export products is Lun aluminum, and the cost is Shanghai aluminum, so the price difference between Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai aluminum leads to the high growth of export profits.
The production capacity of Chongqing Phase II will be increased and expanded by 150000 tons (for new energy vehicles), and the total capacity is expected to increase to 490000 tons after reaching production. The fixed increase fund-raising is to be invested in the annual output of 150000 tons of high-end aluminum plate, strip and foil project for new energy vehicles (the total investment of the project is 1.98 billion yuan). The project is located in Chongqing and the construction period of the project is 36 months. At present, the total production capacity of aluminum plate, strip and foil is 340000 tons (200000 tons in Chongqing and 140000 tons in Shanghai). It is expected that the total production capacity of the company will increase to 490000 tons.
Focus on automotive thermite transfer materials and battery materials, Chongqing production capacity is gradually released to open room for growth. 1) High-speed growth of output: after the second phase of Chongqing 150000 tons was fully put into production, the total production capacity increased to 490000 tons. 2) cost decline: Chongqing has lower energy costs and higher finished products than the sea base, and the company has room for downside in per ton processing costs.
The company is the leader of domestic automotive aluminum heat transfer materials, maintaining the buy rating. As the domestic automobile aluminum heat transmission leader, the company has the advantages of production capacity and customers. After the Chongqing base is fully put into production, the production capacity is released, the shipping space is opened, the product structure is optimized, the profitability is improved, and the performance is promoted rapidly. Due to the good demand for downstream new energy vehicles, Ningde era Kirin battery released to increase the water-cooled board demand, and the company's Chongqing base capacity is fully released, ton cost has downward space, so raise 22-24 profit forecast, 22-24 company is expected to return to the mother net profit of 7.3 shock 10.0 trillion yuan (the original forecast is 6.5pm 91.14 billion yuan), corresponding to PE for 20-15-12 times, to maintain the buy rating.
Risk tips: lower product processing fees; less-than-expected capacity construction; international trade frictions; epidemic situation repeatedly affect daily production and operation