With the orderly progress of the resumption of production and work and the gradual return to normal life of residents, many institutions expect consumption to pick up in the second half of the year.The optional consumption with greater demand elasticity is more favorable under the policy blessing.

Institutions pointed out that the performance differentiation of the sector is mainly affected by the pace of recovery, and the market pays more attention to the "winning rate" under the guidance of the decline in risk appetite in the early stage; as the bottom profit is clear and returns to fundamentals, Q3 performance repair will directly determine the "odds" of the sector.

Huatai: pay attention to the three main lines of "post-epidemic recovery, platform economy and steady growth"

Huatai said that online retail sales recovered faster in June than in May, while offline passenger traffic picked up. With the further repair of residents' consumer confidence, it is considered that optional consumption has greater performance flexibility. Suggest to pay attention to$Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (01929.HK) $、$Zhou Dasheng (002867.SZ) $、Old Fengxiang (600612.SH) $、$Anke Innovation (300866.SZ) $、$JD.com (JD.US) $、$JD.com Group-SW (09618.HK) $。

• Gold jewelry

Gold jewelry has a certain rigid demand attribute, Q2 suppressed wedding demand release superimposed wedding peak season, brand Q3 same-store sales are expected to pick up quickly, mosaic products are also expected to gradually recover.

22H2, gold jewelry still has a relatively prosperous, leading brand product power, brand power, operating power than inferior brands have significant advantages, franchisees to open stores also have better protection and safety margin. In 2022, the gold jewelry leader will continue to display stores rapidly, and the market share of leading brands is expected to further increase.

• Cross-border e-commerce

Huatai pointed out that Q2 cross-border e-commerce has ushered in a significant marginal improvement: maritime freight, especially freight forwarders have fallen from the previous month, exchange has improved Q2 performance under the devaluation of the RMB, tariff relief has improved sellers' profitability, and the prices of raw materials such as home appliances have declined from the previous month.

Q3 entered the peak season of overseas consumption, and Amazon.Com Inc launched prime day on July 12-13. The promotion is expected to promote the rapid growth of cross-border export sellers'Q3 income, superimposing changes in freight, exchange rate and raw material prices, and profits are expected to accelerate the release of Q3.

• Integrated e-commerce

Huatai said that 22 years of supervision has achieved phased results, the platform policy guidance has become increasingly active, guided the orderly development of the industry, re-stimulated the operational vitality of e-commerce enterprises, and the e-commerce industry has entered a new stage of stable and healthy development.

Live e-commerce and real-time retail have grown rapidly in recent years, which is expected to continue to contribute new increments to the e-commerce industry and drive the common growth of e-commerce platforms and brands.

Sino-Thai International: household Appliances and Automobile Dealers & the prosperity of higher vocational education industry rebounds

Sino-Thai International has made the latest research on three categories of optional consumption, and they believe thatHousehold appliances recovered after the epidemic, and the business environment improved in the second half of the year; luxury car sales among car dealers are in the ascendant; higher vocational education begins the stage of valuation repair. Key recommendation$Haier Smart Home (06690.HK) $、$Chinese Education Holdings (00839.HK) $。

• Household appliance industry

Sino-Thai International believes that the industry was obviously disturbed by external factors in the first half of 2022, and the performance of home appliances was weaker than that of the market. However, in the second half of the year, the consumption stimulus policy is expected to be conducive to the release of the renewal demand for household appliances, and the local promotion fee policies have been launched one after another, and the renewal demand has become the main source of household appliance consumption, trading old for new manufacturing market tuyere.

• Car dealerIndustry

Sino-Thai International believes that the car dealer industry was plagued by the epidemic in the first half of the year, but China's luxury car sales can still maintain double-digit growth for the whole year. In the second half of the year, the business environment on the supply side, demand side and policy side has improved, and the prosperity of the industry has rebounded.

• Higher vocational education industry

Sino-Thai International believes that the sharp increase in the number of places in the new school year will help dispel previous concerns about the industry. The worst of the industry is over, and the return of the sector investment boom has entered the stage of valuation and repair.

Galaxy Securities: optional consumption or lead the medicine to rebound in the next stage

Galaxy Securities believes that the relaxation of epidemic prevention policy has led to a recovery in consumption. Since the quarantine time for entry and secret personnel has been reduced to "7: 3", all parts of the country have relaxed the control of the epidemic and promoted the movement of people. Affected by this, market participants continue to trade the logic of consumption recovery.The areas with strong optional consumption attributes in the pharmaceutical sector are strong in line with the consumer market.

In addition, China's economic cycle is already ahead of Europe and the United States, coupled with the fact that the stock market likes to hype expectations in advance, the current market industry rotation has begun to trade from recession to recovery.The market style is beneficial to the areas with strong consumption attribute in medicine.

Galaxy Securities pointed out that the high-end optional consumption in medicine is mainly expensive health products and improved medical services.OTC, a valuable traditional Chinese medicine like Pian Tsai Yi, generally belongs to the logic of health products.

Most of the medical beauty belongs to improved medical services.Some programs in ophthalmology and dentistry also belong to improved medical services. If optional consumption leads the market rebound, high-end optional consumption in medicine may perform better.

Cinda Securities: it is recommended to pay attention to the automobile, textile and clothing board and household appliances industry.

Cinda Securities pointed out thatMore optimistic about the investment prospects of optional consumption in the second half of the year.Through the observation of historical data, there is a certain positive correlation between residents' propensity to consume compared with the same period last year and optional consumption index. The calming down of the epidemic in the second half of the year will lead to an increase in propensity to consume, which will be conducive to the market's valuation of alternative consumer sectors.

Compared with the compulsory consumption, optional consumption is the main direction supported by the policy end; from the basic aspect of corporate profits, with the stable epidemic situation and the resumption of work and production in major cities, the retail sales of optional consumer goods grow faster in the post-epidemic era, and the marginal recovery of profitability is also faster.

In terms of investment advice, Cinda Securities believes that:

• Automobile industryIt has the attractiveness of allocation on both the capital side and the policy side.

• Textile clothing boardPriority can be given to export-oriented clothing enterprises

• Household Electric AppliancesIt is suggested that we should start from the fundamentals and give priority to leading enterprises.

• Cosmetic industryIt is recommended to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.