Strategic transformation of lithium resources, Lxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The company started with the building materials business, transformed the environmental protection and hazardous waste industry in 2015, and began to strategically transform the new energy industry in 2021. Following the repositioning of the company's development strategy, the main profit contribution business in the future will be the new energy materials business, and the company will build an operation mode of "upstream mining, downstream recovery, two-wheel drive strategy" around lithium carbonate business. to achieve the integrated layout of lithium resource development and recovery. Since September 2021, it is proposed to acquire salt lake owned by Lithium Mining and Chenyu Mining, of which the Lxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Qiancuo salt lake project of lithium mining has been decided. According to the company's website, the first three electrochemical deintercalation devices of the Lxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx In addition, the company actively develops lithium salt resources, mainly lithium salt lakes in Tibet at home, and lithium triangle countries such as Argentina abroad, not limited to salt lake development, but also in the field of waste lithium battery recycling.
Global lithium resources are expected to maintain a tight balance from 2022 to 2025. According to the battery demand, we estimate that the global demand for lithium resources will reach 1.64 million tons of LCE equivalent in 2025. In terms of production, the capacity release of various lithium extraction methods, such as lithium mines and salt lakes, is expected to reach 1.59 million tons in 2025, with a shortfall of 50,000 tons, maintaining a tight balance.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company's operating income from 2022 to 2024 will be 76.7% and 9.87 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of-12.2%, 5.9% and 5.1%. The net profit of homing was 4.5x146won 1.720 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 416%, 220% and 18% over the same period last year. The EPS is 0.6C1.87amp 2.21 yuan, and the current share price corresponds to PE on 33-10-9. Give 2023 15 times the valuation, corresponding to the market value of 21.9 billion, corresponding to the stock price of 28 yuan, covered for the first time, given a "recommended" rating.
Risk hint: the substantial release of industry capacity, resulting in lower prices; downstream demand is lower than expected; the company's salt lake production capacity is not as expected.