According to the statistics of Voice of Wind Power, the bidding scale of wind power projects in the first half of the year is about 53GW, a record high. The price of land wind units which had been "falling endlessly" began to stabilize and improve in June.Zhongtai Securities suggests that we should pay attention to the performance flexibility of the wind power sector in the second half of the year, on the one hand, from the certainty of the release of installed capacity, and on the other hand, from the elasticity of cost-side improvement brought about by the bulk downside. Looking forward to next year, the bidding volume to support the installed capacity of the industry will continue to grow high this year. In addition, the current bidding price tends to be stable, leaving a better profit space for each link of the industrial chain next year. The leading performance of most of the core links will increase by 30% next year. The current corresponding valuation is only about 15 times, and it is expected to usher in a double-click performance valuation.

From January to May this year, the installed capacity of wind power is relatively small, which is mainly affected by two aspects: one is affected by seasonal factors, and the other is affected by the epidemic. In terms of seasonal impact, northern China is still in a freezing state from January to May, and the permafrost makes it difficult to install wind power, and there are very few wind power installations from January to May every year. In previous years, the construction of wind power in the south basically accounted for about 20% of the total wind power construction in the country. Affected by the epidemic this year, the proportion of wind power construction in the south will be reduced. The impact of the epidemic situation in Shanghai and East China is obvious, and the installed capacity of wind power has a certain negative impact. Xi'an, Henan and Jilin were also affected by the epidemic at the beginning of the year, affecting about 10% and 15% of the total. The overall installed capacity of wind power is weak in the first half of this year, but the overall installed capacity will increase a lot in the second half of this year, and the installed capacity of land wind power in the whole year is still moving towards at least 55GW.

Judging from the current industry situation, the factors affecting the construction of wind power projects are gradually fading, and the construction is expected to speed up. Judging from the bidding data in the first half of the year, the tender volume continues to be released, and the whole year is expected to exceed expectations. According to incomplete statistics, Lufeng bid 36.8GW in the first half of the year, + 42.6% compared with the same period last year, including 16.4GW in the first quarter, + 19.8% in the same period last year, 20.4GW in the second quarter, + 68.0% in the same period last year, and 60GW + in the whole year. Haifeng bid for 5.61GW in the first half of the year (including projects specifically required by EPC for wind turbine procurement), of which 1.0 GW was added in June. In addition, the State Power Investment recently issued a framework tender for 10.5GW offshore wind power units, followed by a large-scale release of Haifeng mainframe bidding, and the bidding scale of Haifeng for the whole year is expected to be 15GW.

The relevant person in charge of the domestic wind power unit head enterprise said that it is expected that this year's tender will be as high as 90GW, with delivery of more than 60GW, the best year in history. Among them, offshore wind power has completed the tender 8GW, and is expected to complete the tender 15GW for the whole year.

A staff member of the securities department of a wind power enterprise in Beijing said that the number of bids and winning projects of the company this year is relatively satisfactory, there are sufficient orders on hand, the delivery volume is small in the first half of the year, and the "delivery volume will certainly exceed that of the first half" in the second half of the year.

According to the incomplete statistics of Fengmang Energy, a total of 21 provinces (including Xinjiang Corps) completed the competition for 200.22GW conventional landscape projects in 2021, of which wind power is about 65.21GW. In addition, according to the requirements of the first batch of the second phase of the Scenic Base, the full capacity will be connected to the grid by the end of 2023, so 2022 will be the main bidding year for the wind power base project.

In addition, according to the analysis of industry insiders, the transformation of old wind power plants and the parity of sea breeze have also played a certain role in pushing up the bidding data of wind turbines. Haitong Dianxin team estimates that the wind power tender for the whole year of 2022 is expected to be 100-120GW, and the sea breeze project is expected to reach more than 23GW this year.

While the number of bids continues to rise, the inflection point in the price of land wind units has appeared in June.。

According to statistics from Guojin Securities, from January to June, the average bid price of the weighted capacity of land wind units (excluding tower tube 400 yuan / KW) was 2007 yuan / KW, 1994 yuan / KW, 1846 yuan / KW, 1843 yuan / KW, 1721 yuan / KW, 1807 yuan / KW, respectively.

The aforementioned staff of the securities department of a complete machine factory in Beijing said that at present, the price of the fan has a trend of stabilizing and improving. "We are also constantly increasing the self-supply ratio of spare parts to ensure and increase the overall gross profit margin." Guojin Securities expects that in the second quarter of 2022, the bidding price of land wind units will stabilize with high certainty, and the annual average price will return to 1700-2000 yuan / KW. It is mainly based on: first, with the further release of the owner's bidding volume in the second half of the year, the unsaturated situation of the mainframe factory's orders can be improved; second, there have been a number of wind turbine-related accidents recently, and the mainframe factory has made meagre profits at the current price level. continue to reduce prices or bring certain quality and safety risks. Therefore, when choosing the winning bidder, the downstream owners will consider more factors such as product, service quality and comprehensive strength than the low price.

Bank of China Securities believes that the start of bidding means that the preparatory work for wind power projects is basically completed, and the general bidding volume can be converted into grid-connected volume after a year, so the bidding volume can reflect the prosperity of the industry in advance.

Affected by the epidemic and replacement models, the industry shipped less in the first quarter, resulting in a lower gross profit margin. Looking forward to the second quarter, industry shipments accelerated significantly, bidding prices stabilized, and gross profit margins of industry head machine enterprises and high-growth parts links in the industry are expected to pick up.

On the cost side, the decline in raw material costs will bring performance flexibility to spare parts enterprises. The proportion of raw material costs in wind power parts is generally high, about 55% and 70%. Under the assumption that the price of raw materials falls by 10%, the gross profit margin of enterprises in parts and components is expected to rise by 5% and 7%. This week, the average price of medium and heavy plate is 4749 yuan / ton, the average price of pig iron is 4218 yuan / ton, the average price of pig iron is-1.84%, the average price of epoxy resin is 21180 yuan / ton, and the average price of epoxy resin is-8.15%. The overall price of raw materials is expected to fall, which is expected to improve marginal profits and thicken the parts company EPS.

Guolian Securities believes that the bidding scale of wind power reached 53.5GW in the first half of this year, a record high, and the bidding volume for the whole year is expected to exceed 80GW. At the same time, under the environment of the government actively promoting the landing of the project record system and speeding up the construction of the scenic base, the installed scale of wind power is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the short-term dimension, the price of raw materials shows a downward trend, and the performance of parts manufacturers is expected to improve quarter by quarter.

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