Events:
According to the performance forecast issued by the company, the company expects to achieve a net profit of 220 million yuan to 260 million yuan belonging to shareholders of listed companies from January to June 2022, an increase of 209.95% Rue 266.30% over the same period last year; net profit after deducting non-recurring profits and losses is 218 million yuan-258 million yuan, an increase of 250.61% Kui 314.94% over the same period last year.
The business pattern of water treatment pharmaceuticals has been optimized, and the company's profitability has been significantly improved. the market demand for water treatment pharmaceuticals has been less disturbed by the economic cycle. at present, the domestic market players are mainly Taihe science and technology and clean water supply. after the end of the price war, the company's product price and profit margin have improved significantly, with the price center of yellow phosphorus moving up, the company corresponding price increase, price transmission smoothly. In terms of profit margin, the net profit rates of 21Q2, 21Q3, 21Q4 and 22Q1 were 7.54%, 9.05%, 19.36% and 17.23% respectively, and the profitability center moved up significantly.
Contribution performance increment of managed chlor-alkali project
According to the announcement, the company started production on May 7, 2022 after leasing Zaozhuang Zhongke Chemical chlor-alkali assets. The project includes an annual output of 300000 tons of caustic soda and 250000 tons of liquid chlorine and 7500 tons of hydrogen. Currently, the second phase of operation is 150000 tons / year of ionic membrane caustic soda. Caustic soda is currently in the business cycle. The average price of 22Q2 tablets in Shandong market is 4285 yuan / ton, and the historical percentile since 2012 is as high as 92%. The production of caustic soda has directly become an effective performance increment of the company.
Lithium materials business is expected to grow to the second level of growth.
The company embraces the industry trend and cuts into the lithium material business. At present, 10,000 tons / year of lithium iron phosphate and 10,000 tons / year VC project are expected to be put into production, and lithium materials are expected to become the second growth level of the company in the future.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
We estimate that the company's 2022-24 revenue will be 28.9 pound 45.6 / 6.04 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 30.9%, 52.8%, 32.4%, and net profit of 3.9, 6.2 / 750 million, respectively. The year-on-year growth rate will be 39.8%, 58.7%, 20.8%, 1.8,2.90 and 3.50 yuan, respectively, and the current stock price PE is 15x, 10x and 8X respectively. In view of the continuous improvement in the company's main business structure-new energy materials open room for growth, raise the target price to 36.00 yuan (the previous value is 29.79 yuan) according to 20 times PE, and maintain "buy".
Rating.
Risk Tips:
The risk that the business expansion of lithium materials is not as expected; the risk of chlor-alkali project operation is not as expected.
