Concept tracking of Hong Kong stocks | the performance of the CXO sector in the second quarter will maintain rapid growth and the market is expected to reverse (with concept stocks)

Zhitong Finance · Jul 5, 2022 21:45

智通财经APP获悉，7月5日，港股CXO概念板块拉升，截至收盘，康龙化成(03759)涨超7%，泰格医药(03347)、昭衍新药(06127)以及药明康德(02359)涨近3%，港股CXO概念板块受追捧。安信国际最新周观点称，CXO行业目前估值相对合理，具有配置的性价比，国内产业链具备全球竞争优势，受益于海内外下游需求增长，行业高景气可以持续。

CXO其实就是医药外包服务的一个简称，为医药企业提供的从新药研发到生产的各类外包服务，既能降低成本也能创造更大的效益，比如很多医药公司在国内就有外包，因为国内市场大，需求大。据悉，从今年第一季度的收入来看，CXO依然保持着高速增长，营收增速居医药子板块第一，这得益于CXO内生订单的增加，以及辉瑞新冠订单的逐步兑现，总体来说，CXO板块在Q2中仍能保持高速增长，在医药行业中表现突出。此外，CXO赛道根据外包环节不同可以细分出多个分支，主要包括CRO、CDMO等。

CRO方面，全球CRO市场稳步扩容，到2024年将接近千亿美元规模。随着医药研发支出增加，医药研发外包需求增长，全球CRO市场规模持续扩容。其中，中国CRO市场增速高于全球，其中临床CRO市场扩容明显。根据弗若斯特沙利文预测，2022年中国CRO市场规模预计约为130亿美元，2024年预计约为222亿美元，2015-2022年CAGR为25.85%;2022-2024年CAGR为30.68%。2022年细分临床CRO市场约占CRO市场的58%，市场规模约为75亿美元，2024年预计增长到137亿美元，2015-2022年CAGR为28.45%;2022-2024年CAGR为35.15%。

CDMO方面，全球基因治疗CDMO行业处于快速发展阶段。根据弗若斯特沙利文预测，2016年至2020年，市场规模从7.7亿美元增长到17.2亿美元，年复合增长率达22.4%;预计到2025年，全球基因治疗CDMO市场规模将达到78.6亿美元，2020年至2025年的年复合增长率将上升至35.5%。国内基因治疗CDMO行业经过近年的稳定增长，将迈入高速发展阶段。2018年至2022年，CDMO市场规模从8.7亿元增长到预计32.6亿元，年复合增长率达39.3%;预计到2027年，市场规模将增长至197.4亿元，2022年至2027年的预期年复合增长率将高达43.3%。

公司层面，药明生物是一体化的生物制药CDMO企业。根据相关媒体报道，药明生物两家子公司无锡药明生物和上海药明生物目前可能接近从UVL名单移除。此外，药明生物新增微生物发酵产品cGMP开发及生产能力升级一体化CRDMO服务。

业绩方面，中泰证券预计CDMO/CMO二季度及全年业绩有望持续强劲，如药明康德(预计上半年经调整净利润同比增幅达63%-65%，下同)、药明生物(35%-45%)、康龙化成(30%-40%)、凯莱英(150%-200%)、昭衍新药(30%-40%)、泰格医药(扣非35%-45%)。西南证券也同样看好CXO板块，业绩有望维持高增长，龙头公司增速更快。凯莱英Q2业绩预计同比增长190%，药明康德增幅有望达63%-65%。

东吴证券最新研报认为，UVL事件取得重大进展，地缘政治限制风险降低，看好CXO板块。CXO板块一季度营收同比增长42.71%，扣非归母净利润同比增长57.02%，CXO板块基本面扎实，业绩维持高增长。

中信建投证券表示，外部环境改善，CXO成长逻辑不变。CXO成长动力来自两方面：1)基于中国工程师红利以及完善的供应链，海外产业链不断向中国转移，我们认为不必过于担心UVL，海外药企持续支撑中国CXO企业;2)基于行业发展以及药品审评审批政策支持，中国企业创新药热情高涨，同时逐步接受外包模式，我们认为国内创新将持续，相应企业业绩有望持续。

相关概念股：

康龙化成(03759)：目前，康龙的CDMO服务涉及项目有：754个临床前项目，224个临床I-II期，30个临床III期，

泰格医药(03347)：泰格医药为我国CXO临床服务的龙头，和1000多家医院建立合作关系，拥有宽广的临床资源渠道优势。新药研发支出的60%用于临床服务。

药明生物(02269)：作为全球领先的生物药合同研究、开发及生产组织(CRDMO)平台，业务遍及国内和海外市场，为药企和生物技术公司提供一站式端到端服务，涵盖发现、开发以及生产生物药。按2021年销售收入计算，公司是全球生物药研发服务外包市场第二大企业，市场份额为10.3%。

药明康德(02359)：药明康德是CXO行业龙头公司，2000-2004年打通小分子一体化研发生产服务，2005至2013年度，构建药械研发“配套服务”，临床试验事业部+临床研究服务，依托成功案例，逐步拓展临床前药效、安评、临床 CRO及医疗器械检测等分析检测业务。

Zhitong Financial APP learned that the Hong Kong stock CXO concept plate rose on July 5. by the close, Pharmaron Beijing Co., Ltd.* (03759) was up more than 7%, Tigermed (03347), Zhaoyan New Drug (06127) and Wuxi Apptec (02359) were up nearly 3%, and the Hong Kong stock CXO concept plate was highly sought after. Anxin International's latest week point of view, the current valuation of the CXO industry is relatively reasonable, with the allocation of performance-to-price ratio, the domestic industrial chain has a global competitive advantage, benefiting from the growth of downstream demand at home and abroad, the industry boom can be sustainable.

In fact, CXO is an abbreviation of pharmaceutical outsourcing services, providing pharmaceutical companies with all kinds of outsourcing services from new drug research and development to production, which can not only reduce costs but also create greater benefits. For example, many pharmaceutical companies have outsourcing in China, because of the large domestic market and great demand. It is reported that from the perspective of revenue in the first quarter of this year, CXO still maintains rapid growth, and the revenue growth rate ranks first in the medical sub-plate, which is due to the increase in CXO endogenous orders, as well as the gradual realization of Pfizer Inc and COVID-19 orders. Generally speaking, CXO plate can still maintain high-speed growth in Q2 and perform prominently in the pharmaceutical industry. In addition, the CXO track can be subdivided into several branches according to different outsourcing links, including CRO, CDMO and so on.

In terms of CRO, the global CRO market is expanding steadily and will be close to 100 billion US dollars by 2024. With the increase of medical R & D expenditure and the growing demand for pharmaceutical R & D outsourcing, the global CRO market continues to expand. Among them, the growth rate of CRO market in China is higher than that in the world, and the expansion of clinical CRO market is obvious. According to Frost Sullivan's forecast, the size of China's CRO market is expected to be about US $13 billion in 2022, about US $22.2 billion in 2024, and 25.85% of CAGR in 2015-2022. CAGR in 2022-2024 is 30.68%. The clinical CRO market segment accounts for about 58% of the CRO market in 2022, with a market size of about US $7.5 billion, which is expected to grow to US $13.7 billion in 2024 and 28.45% of CAGR in 2015-2022. CAGR in 2022-2024 is 35.15%.

In terms of CDMO, the global gene therapy CDMO industry is in the stage of rapid development. According to Frost Sullivan, the market will grow from $770 million to $1.72 billion from 2016 to 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.4%. By 2025, the global gene therapy CDMO market is expected to reach $7.86 billion, and the compound annual growth rate from 2020 to 2025 will rise to 35.5%. After the steady growth in recent years, the domestic gene therapy CDMO industry will enter a stage of rapid development. From 2018 to 2022, the market size of CDMO will grow from 870 million yuan to 3.26 billion yuan, with an annual compound growth rate of 39.3%. By 2027, the market size will grow to 19.74 billion yuan, and the expected annual compound growth rate from 2022 to 2027 will be as high as 43.3%.

At the company level, Wuxi Biologics is an integrated biopharmaceutical CDMO enterprise. According to relevant media reports, Wuxi Wuxi Biologics and Shanghai Wuxi Biologics, two subsidiaries of Wuxi Biologics, may be close to being removed from the UVL list. In addition, Wuxi Biologics added new microbial fermentation products cGMP development and production capacity upgrading integrated CRDMO service.

In terms of performance, Zhongtai Securities expects CDMO/CMO 's second-quarter and full-year results to remain strong, such as Wuxi Apptec (it is expected that the adjusted net profit in the first half of the year will increase by 63%, 65%, the same below), Wuxi Biologics (35%, 45%), Pharmaron Beijing Co., Ltd.* (30%, 40%), Kelaying (150%, 200%), Zhaoyan new drugs (30%, 40%), Tigermed (35%, 45%). Southwest Securities is also optimistic about the CXO plate, the performance is expected to maintain high growth, leading companies faster growth. Kelleying Q2 performance is expected to grow by 190 per cent year-on-year, while Wuxi Apptec is expected to grow by 63 per cent.

Soochow Securities latest research report that the UVL incident has made significant progress, geopolitical restrictions to reduce the risk, optimistic about the CXO plate. The revenue of CXO plate in the first quarter increased by 42.71% compared with the same period last year, and the non-homed net profit increased by 57.02% compared with the same period last year.

CSC FINANCIAL CO.,LTD said that with the improvement of the external environment, the logic of CXO growth remains unchanged. The driving force for the growth of CXO comes from two aspects: 1) based on the dividends of Chinese engineers and the perfect supply chain, the overseas industrial chain continues to shift to China. We don't think we need to worry too much about UVL. Overseas pharmaceutical companies continue to support Chinese CXO companies. 2) based on the development of the industry and the policy support of drug review and approval, Chinese enterprises are enthusiastic about creating new drugs and gradually accept the outsourcing model. We believe that domestic innovation will continue, and the corresponding corporate performance is expected to continue.

Related concept stocks:

Pharmaron Beijing Co., Ltd.* (03759): at present, Kanglong's CDMO services include: 754 preclinical projects, 224 clinical I-II phases and 30 clinical III phases.

Tigermed (03347): Tigermed is the leader of CXO clinical service in China. He has established cooperative relations with more than 1000 hospitals and has the advantage of broad clinical resources. 60% of the spending on new drug research and development is spent on clinical services.

Wuxi Biologics (02269): as the world's leading biomedical contract research, development and production organization (CRDMO) platform, with operations in domestic and overseas markets, it provides one-stop end-to-end services for pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, covering the discovery, development and production of biopharmaceuticals. In terms of sales revenue in 2021, the company is the second largest company in the global biopharmaceutical R & D service outsourcing market, with a market share of 10.3%.

Wuxi Apptec (02359): Wuxi Apptec is a leading company in the CXO industry, opening up small molecule integrated R & D and production services in 2000-2003. in 2005-2013, the construction of pharmaceutical equipment R & D "supporting services", clinical trial department + clinical research services, relying on successful cases, gradually expand preclinical efficacy, safety assessment, clinical CRO and medical device testing and other analysis and testing business.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

港股概念追踪 | 二季度CXO板块业绩仍将保持高速增长 行情有望迎来反转(附概念股)

Concept tracking of Hong Kong stocks | the performance of the CXO sector in the second quarter will maintain rapid growth and the market is expected to reverse (with concept stocks)

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港股概念追踪 | 二季度CXO板块业绩仍将保持高速增长行情有望迎来反转(附概念股)