The marketization of electricity price is advancing steadily, and the volume and price are expected to rise in 2022.
At the end of 2021, thermal power installed capacity 17.14GW, an increase of 0.41 GW over the same period last year; equity installed capacity 19.46GW, an increase of 0.38 GW over the same period last year; and installed capacity 4.31GW under construction. According to the current project construction progress, it is expected to be put into production in 2022-2024.
According to the 2021 announcement data, thermal power generation decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, and the average utilization hours decreased by 487 hours compared with the same period last year, mainly due to high coal prices suppressing thermal power output. Transaction electricity price rises and falls, according to the company's annual report, the company's average transaction price increased by 66 yuan / MWh in 2021 compared with the same period last year. In 2022, the marketization process of electricity price is advancing steadily, the coal supply is strengthened, and the price is further stabilized. therefore, the company's thermal power business is expected to rise in volume and price in 2022.
New energy indicators will increase in the future, and the thermal market will expand steadily.
Relying on the company's stock thermal power advantage is more obvious, the current company has the advantage of thermal power flexibility transformation capacity, we can use this to obtain new energy indicators. The record of the new energy project completed by the company in 2021 is above 1GW, and the company announced the construction of 0.45GW photovoltaic project from January to April in 2022. In terms of the thermal market, the company continues to open up the heating and gas supply market. In 2021, the capacity of heating units reached 81%, the cumulative heat supply increased by 4% compared with the same period last year, the heating area increased by 8%, and the average heating price increased by 7%. The thermal market is expanding steadily.
As the profits of thermal power plants continue to be repaired, the company is expected to turn losses into profits.
The fundamentals of the thermal power industry have gradually bottomed out, and the company's performance in the first quarter of 2022 has been greatly improved, with lower quarterly expenses and higher net profit. From the perspective of the back market, on the one hand, the rapid decline in commodities also puts pressure on the coal market.
On the other hand, Changxie coal supply pressure is relatively small, port inventory is also much higher than the same period in previous years, there is still a certain distance from the price limit, the overall coal price is still weak in the short term. Based on the basic judgment of the coal market price, the company is expected to turn losses into profits throughout the year.
For the first time, coverage will be rated as "overweight".
We expect that from 2022 to 2024, the company will achieve operating income of 261.62 (year-on-year growth of 17.65%), 302.93 and 33.592 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 8.47 (year-on-year increase of 127.23%), 11.43 and 1.802 billion yuan.
The total share capital is 6.685 billion shares, corresponding to EPS0.13, 0.17 and 0.27 yuan.
The main points of valuation are as follows: on June 28, 2022, the closing price of the stock was 3.24 yuan, corresponding to a market capitalization of 21.658 billion yuan, and the PE from 2022 to 2024 was about 26, 19 and 12 times. The company's thermal power profits continue to repair, the thermal market is steadily expanding, covering for the first time, we give "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: thermal project construction is not as expected and coal prices continue to rise.