In the second quarter, the performance increased by 64% and 83% from the previous quarter, exceeding expectations. The company issued a pre-increase announcement on its performance for the first half of 2022, with an estimated net profit of RMB 3.96-425 million in the first half of 2022, an increase of 167.8%-187.4% over the same period last year, deducting the non-return net profit of RMB 3.92-421 million, an increase of 170.1%-190.1% over the same period last year.
Among them, the net profit of returning to the mother in the second quarter was 2.46-275 million yuan, an increase of 159.4%, 190.0%, and 63.5%, 82.8%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The growth in performance is mainly due to: (1) the high prosperity of trichlorosilicon driven by the demand for polysilicon, and a substantial increase in the price of trichlorosilicon; (2) the release of new production capacity of high-purity silicon tetrachloride and the growth of demand for downstream optical fiber and cable. (3) the production capacity of silane coupling agent is gradually released; (4) the production and marketing of gaseous silicon dioxide is good; and (5) the certification of electronic specialty products is smooth.
Expand 30,000 tons of allyl chloride per year to strengthen the integration advantage of the industrial chain. Sanfu Xin material, a subsidiary of the company, has invested 230 million yuan and built a new project with an annual output of 30,000 tons of allyl chloride, which is currently in the project design stage. Allyl chloride is one of the main raw materials of silane coupling agent products, which adopts the traditional reaction of chlorine and propylene, and the process route is mature. The required chlorine is basically provided by the company and transported through the pipeline, and the products are mainly used in the production of silane coupling agents, which can increase the proportion of raw materials supplied by the company's silane coupling agents, reduce production costs and operating risks, and enhance product market competitiveness. The construction period of the project is expected to be 12 months, with an average annual income of 320 million yuan excluding tax and an average annual net profit of 24.5 million yuan.
Consolidate the leading position of trichlorosilicon in the world and expand the layout of new materials downstream. The company's main production capacity includes 65,000 tons of trichlorosilicon, 30,000 tons of high-purity silicon tetrachloride, 56,000 tons of potassium hydroxide and 100,000 tons of potassium sulfate. The projects of 50,000 tons / year trichlorosilicon and 20,000 tons / year silicon tetrachloride are under construction and are expected to be put into trial production in the third quarter of 2022; the expansion of trichlorosilicon and silicon tetrachloride are under construction and are expected to be put into production at the beginning of 2023. The company actively distributes trichlorosilicon downstream electronic gases (electronic grade dichlorodihydrogen silicon, electronic grade trichlorosilane), silane coupling agent intermediates and series products, gaseous silica and other downstream new material products, extending the layout of the industrial chain, growth is expected in the future.
Risk hints: macroeconomic systemic risk, the risk of large-scale contagion, the risk that the production schedule of new projects is lower than expected, the risk that downstream polysilicon demand is lower than expected, and the higher-than-expected decline in product prices. market risks such as increased competition among new entrants, and related risks related to the reduction of senior executives.
Investment advice: raise your earnings forecast and maintain your "buy" rating.
By raising the profit forecast, the estimated net profit from 2022 to 2024 is 9.35 million yuan, 11.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 178.6 percent, 27.6 percent, 16.9 percent, and diluted EPS=3.43/4.47/5.11 yuan, and the current share price corresponds to PE=15/11/10x. The company has a high prosperity of trichlorosilicon and silicon tetrachloride, the progress of new production capacity is higher than expected, the field of new materials is advancing steadily, and the "buy" rating is maintained.
