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医渡科技(2158.HK)2022财年年度业绩点评报告:医疗大数据基建稳步扩张 收入结构更趋均衡

Yidu Technology (2158.HK) FY2022 Annual Performance Review Report: Healthcare Big Data Infrastructure Is Steadily Expanding and Revenue Structure Becoming More Balanced

光大證券 ·  Jul 3, 2022 00:00  · Researches

Event: the company's revenue for fiscal year 2022 was 1.237 billion yuan, up 42.7% from the same period last year, mainly due to strong growth in life science solutions and health management platforms and solutions. In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin in fiscal year 2022 decreased by 5.5pct to 32.3% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to changes in the income structure; the net loss of RMB 762 million yuan, excluding changes in the fair value of convertible notes, convertible redeemable preferred shares and warrants, increased the adjusted net loss from RMB 275 million in fiscal year 2021 to RMB 584 million, mainly due to:

1) during the period, the company carried out brand upgrading to enhance the awareness of B-end customers, resulting in an increase in sales costs; 2) the increase in the number of R & D personnel led to an increase in salary expenses.

Big data platform solutions continue to infiltrate customers and drive steady growth: the revenue of big data platform and solutions in fiscal 2022 is 445 million yuan, up 10.7% from the same period last year, mainly due to: 1) the steady expansion of medical intelligent infrastructure, the number of active customers has increased to 108; 2) the continuous expansion of solutions under a single disease. Adjusted gross profit margin (excluding equity incentives) fell 0.9pct to 44.9% year-on-year, mainly due to changes in income structure. Accompanied by: 1) the steady expansion of the medical big data infrastructure network; 2) the increase in disease coverage, we expect the company to: 1) enter more than 5 top research hospital customers each year; 2) continue to expand regulatory and policy makers' customers, drive the steady growth of big data platform and solutions business.

Life science solutions can effectively solve the pain points of the industry, and are expected to continue rapid growth: revenue from life science solutions in fiscal year 2022 is 359 million yuan, a sharp increase of 95.0% over the same period last year. This is mainly due to: 1) the number of active customers has increased to 141; 2) the unit price of customers has increased significantly. The adjusted gross profit margin (excluding equity incentives) increased by 2pct to 25.4% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to: 1) improved bargaining power; 2) improved human efficiency. During the period, the company and Mega Ophthalmology, which focuses on the innovative research and development of ophthalmic drugs, jointly carried out the III phase trial of a candidate drug for fundus disease, and undertook the phase IV clinical trial of a well-known innovative pharmaceutical company with a contract value of more than 10 million yuan. With the increase of phase III and IV clinical trials, the company's ability to develop clinical solutions driven by data analysis has been continuously validated, and we expect the company's market share to continue to increase.

Health management platforms and solutions opened diversified growth, with broad room for growth: revenue from health management platforms and solutions in fiscal year 2022 was 425 million yuan, up 68.5% from the same period last year, mainly due to strong growth in insurance services and platform solutions. During the period, the urban penetration rate of Huimin Insurance business further increased.

The adjusted gross margin (excluding equity incentives) decreased by 12.8pct to 25.8% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to changes in product structure. Through the disease model accumulated by YiduCore and AI+ Medicine to build a complete set of chronic disease dose-effect relationship digital therapy to provide personalized and integrated health management solution, the company has entered the trillion-level chronic disease management market and has a broad space for growth.

Earnings forecast, valuation and rating: in view of the lower-than-expected revenue growth of the health management platform and solutions, we respectively lowered our revenue forecast for fiscal year 23 by 19.4% to RMB 18.23 / 2.54 billion; in view of the fact that revenue from life customer solutions, health management platforms and solutions sectors is expected to continue to grow rapidly, revenue for the new fiscal year 25 is forecast to be RMB 3.596 billion. Considering: 1) the improvement of product standardization of big data platform solution and the improvement of human efficiency of life science solution are expected to drive the increase of gross profit margin. 2) in fiscal year 22, due to the one-time investment in sales expenses caused by brand upgrading, sales expenses are expected to decline in fiscal year 23-24. We expect the net profit in fiscal year 23-24 to be-3.61-89 million yuan respectively, with losses narrowing by 8.42 / 1.072 billion yuan respectively compared with the previous forecast. It is expected to make a profit in fiscal year 25, with a net profit of 306 million yuan in the new fiscal year. We are optimistic that life science solutions can significantly improve the pain points of the innovative pharmaceutical industry; in addition, we maintain a "buy" rating given the broad growth space for health management platforms and solutions.

Risk tips: the promotion of medical digitization is not as expected, the competition in the medical digital industry is intensified, and the commercialization of life science solutions and health management platform and solution divisions is not as expected.

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