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中信建投:加仓就在当下 继续上修全年电动车销量预期至650万辆以上
Citic Construction Investment: Jiakang continues to revise its annual electric vehicle sales forecast to more than 6.5 million units.

Zhitong Finance ·  {{timeTz}}

智通财经APP获悉,中信建投近日发布研报表示,今年4月起国内受疫情部分主机厂、核心零部件厂停产减产,供给再次受限,电车销量环比下滑38%;4月底板块拐点出现,5月、6月销量表现再一次超出市场预期;预计6、8月是全年销量上调的强支撑,Q3起随着新势力产能爬坡、新车型交付,销量将持续超预期,助力全年销量冲击650+万辆。鉴于下半年销量驱动因素很多,销量强势并会持续超预期,当下是投资新能源车的最好时机,板块右侧确定性强。

Zhitong Financial APP learned that Citic Construction Investment recently released a research report saying that since April this year, some domestic mainframe factories and core parts factories have stopped production and reduced production, supply has been restricted again, and tram sales have dropped 38% month-on-month. At the end of April, the plate inflection point appeared, and the sales performance in May and June once again exceeded market expectations. June and August are expected to be a strong support for the increase in sales for the whole year. Q3 will continue to exceed expectations as new power production capacity climbs and new models are delivered, helping to impact annual sales of 6.5 million vehicles. In view of the many driving factors of sales in the second half of the year, sales are strong and will continue to exceed expectations, now is the best time to invest in new energy vehicles, the certainty on the right side of the plate is strong.

正文如下:

The text is as follows:

4月初提示上海疫情对于电动车影响大于光伏,板块阶段性承压。6月5日,发布报告《上调全年电动车产销,上调光伏硅料全年均价》,上调全年预期至570-590万辆,6月19日发布报告《新车型集中上市将是下半年推动电动车产销超预期的核心力量》,强调车型将推动下半年全年产销超预期。

In early April, it was suggested that the epidemic situation in Shanghai had a greater impact on electric vehicles than photovoltaic, and the plate was under periodic pressure.On June 5, the report "increasing the production and sales of electric vehicles for the whole year and raising the average price of photovoltaic silicon for the whole year" was issued, raising the forecast for the whole year to 570-5.9 million vehicles. On June 19th, a report was released that "the centralized listing of new models will be the core force for the production and sales of electric vehicles to exceed expectations in the second half of the year." it is stressed that the vehicle model will promote the production and sales of electric vehicles to exceed expectations in the second half of the year.

本期鉴于行业数据持续超出我们预期上限,再次上修全年电动车产销预期至650万辆,且继续超预期概率较大。电车销量屡超预期的主要贡献是众多非热点自主品牌,而非市场熟知的主力车型,究其根本为大量车型集中上市后,车型矩阵健全和可选择性增加所带来的电车认知度/认可度上升、行业销量持续释放。

In view of the fact that the industry data continue to exceed our expected upper limit in this issue.Once again, the production and sales of electric vehicles are expected to reach 6.5 million for the whole year, and there is a high probability that they will continue to exceed expectations.The main contribution of tram sales exceeding expectations is that there are many non-hot independent brands, rather than the main models that are well known in the market. After a large number of models are centrally listed, the increased recognition / recognition of trams brought about by the sound and selective increase of the model matrix, and the continuous release of industry sales.

后续节奏看7月受特斯拉排产影响,产销仅有小幅度上行,但预计8月随着特斯拉产线改造后产能释放,产销环比同比斜率开始陡峭,上中游产业链会在7月感受到阵阵暖意和较为明显的边际变化,这与去年5-6月十分相似。

According to the follow-up rhythm, due to the influence of Tesla, Inc. 's scheduling in July, production and sales only went up to a small extent, but it is expected that in August, with the release of production capacity after the transformation of Tesla, Inc. 's production line, the year-on-year slope of production and sales began to be steep.The upper and middle reaches of the industrial chain will feel bursts of warmth and more obvious marginal changes in July, which is very similar to May-June last year.

复盘2021年超级行情:4、5月销量环比筑底,板块提前见底;6月产销超预期,但5月产业链已经暖风劲吹,超级行情发动,产销预期全面上修。今年鉴于下半年销量驱动因素很多,且7月变化尤为显著,我们认为当下是投资新能源车的最好时机,板块右侧确定性强。

Looking back on the super market in 2021: the sales volume in April and May bottomed out month on month, and the plate bottomed out ahead of schedule; production and sales exceeded expectations in June, but in May, the industrial chain has already been warmed up, the super market has been launched, and production and sales are expected to be revised up in an all-round way. In view of the many drivers of sales in the second half of this year, especially in July, we believe thatNow is the best time to invest in new energy vehicles, and the right side of the plate has strong certainty.

尽管当前渗透率已经达到25%以上,我们依然看好电车后续将持续超预期:短期看,是插混优势凸显带来量的提升,长期看结构性变化持续,即插混向纯电转换、单车带电量提升,对应锂电需求仍有广阔空间。车型数量是销量表现的前瞻指标,22H2至23年至少有35款重要的全新车型上市交付,我们预计23年电车销量展望千万。

Although the current permeability has reached more than 25%, we are still optimistic that the tram will continue to exceed expectations: in the short term, it is the increase in volume brought about by the prominent advantages of plug-in, and in the long run, the structural changes will continue, that is, the conversion from plug-in to pure electricity and the increase in battery charge per bike, there is still a broad space for lithium demand. The number of models is a forward-looking indicator of sales performance. 22H2 will have at least 35 important new models to be delivered in 23 years, and we expect tram sales to be 10 million in 23 years.

This page is machine-translated. Futubull tries to improve but do not guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the translation, and will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by any inaccuracy or omission of the translation.

Risk disclosure: The above content only represents the opinion of the authors or guests, and does not represent any positions of Futu or constitute any investment advice on the part of Futu. Before making any investment decision, investors should consider the risk factors related to investment products based on their own circumstances and consult professional investment advisers where necessary. Futu makes every effort to verify the authenticity, accuracy, and originality of the above content, but does not make any guarantees or promises.

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