Download
Download by
Scanning QR Code
  • Download app

    Download app

  • Online Inquiry

    Log in to access Online Inquiry
+
Congratulations
You've successfully got advanced quotes worth 5000 HKD
Download APP >>

不惧做空获投行看好,蔚来(9866.HK/NIO.US)加速回归
Not afraid to go short and be favored by the investment bank, NIO Inc. (9866.HK/NIO.US) accelerated his return.

Gelonghui Finance ·  {{timeTz}}

6月29日晚,一份来自海外机构灰熊研究(Grizzly Research)的做空报告出炉,向不断升温的二级市场的浇了一盆冷水。

On the evening of June 29th, a short report from overseas institution grizzly Bear Research (Grizzly Research) was released, pouring cold water on the warming secondary market.

此次机构狙击的对象是正处负面舆论的蔚来($蔚来-SW(09866.HK)$/$蔚来(NIO.US)$),其实这份长达56页的报告核心指控在于:虚增收入,夸大盈利能力;火力焦点则瞄准了蔚来引以为傲的换电服务体系。

The target of this organization's sniper is NIO Inc., who is facing negative public opinion.$NIO Inc.-SW (09866.HK) $/$NIO Inc. (NIO.US) $In fact, the core charge of the 56-page report is that it inflates income and exaggerates profitability, while the focus of firepower is on the power exchange service system that NIO Inc. is proud of.

沽空报告漏洞百出,被多家国际大行“教育”
The short selling report is full of loopholes and has been "educated" by a number of international banks.

尽管这对市场情绪造成不小的波澜,但这份看似凶狠的报告实则漏洞百出,所以没过多久,就上演明显的反转剧情,多家国际大行集体批驳,并重申对蔚来的看好。

Although this caused no small waves to market sentiment, this seemingly ferocious report was actually full of loopholes, so it was not long before the obvious reversal was staged, with a number of major international banks collectively refuting and reiterating their optimism on NIO Inc..

其实,先不说那些诸如比如蔚来销量疲软、车辆交付周期快、百度指数显示蔚来热度不足等等无关痛痒的指责,像充电网络建设资本投入转移至表外、向关联方蔚能超售电池包、提前确认收入等核心质疑点在逻辑和证据链上其实都完全经不起推敲,亦无过多探讨的价值和必要。

In fact, not to mention those innocuous accusations, such as NIO Inc. 's weak sales, fast vehicle delivery cycle, Baidu, Inc. index showing NIO Inc. 's lack of heat, and so on, core doubts such as the transfer of capital investment in charging network construction off the balance sheet, the ability to oversell battery packs to related parties, and the confirmation of income in advance are in fact completely incapable of withstanding scrutiny in logic and the chain of evidence, and there is no value and necessity for too much discussion.

在此,笔者仅列举几点,市场较为关注和探讨较多的指控和回击,来感受下双方的交锋:

Here, the author only enumerates a few points, the market pays more attention to and discusses more accusations and counterattacks, to feel the confrontation between the two sides:

1)充电网络建设资本投入转移至表外,且充换电基础设施和设备(包括电池)折旧年限扩大(从之前的5年变为最近的5-8年),从而进一步摊低每年的折旧成本;

1) the capital investment in the construction of the charging network is transferred off the balance sheet, and the depreciation life of recharging infrastructure and equipment (including batteries) is expanded (from the previous 5 years to the most recent 5-8 years), thus further reducing the annual depreciation cost.

一方面,充电网络的铺开涉及多地用地行政审批、电网接入等,蔚来全自建基本不太现实,通过租赁或引入合作伙伴才是非常合理的做法,资本投入不在表内也当然也就并不意外了,相关折旧不在表内也是正常的。简单讲,即便表内没有折旧费用,大概率会以其他费用形式来体现。

On the one hand, the expansion of the charging network involves administrative examination and approval of multiple sites and access to the power grid. NIO Inc. 's full self-construction is basically not realistic, and it is very reasonable to lease or introduce partners. It is not surprising that the capital investment is not in the statement, and it is normal that the relevant depreciation is not in the statement. To put it simply, even if there is no depreciation expense in the table, the probability will be reflected in other forms of expense.

其实,很多涉及重资产业务的公司都有类似做法,对于蔚来而言,这不仅能减轻现金流压力,降低经营风险,且能更专注地去经营换电服务性质的轻资产业务。

In fact, many companies involved in heavy asset business have similar practices. For NIO Inc., this can not only reduce cash flow pressure and operational risk, but also focus more on light asset business in the nature of power exchange services.

关于使用年限拉长导致折旧折旧成本降低的问题,但凡有点常识的都了解,不论是从技术发展还是市场需要,延长电池使用寿命都是重点突破方向,而且随着时间的推移,电池及相关的管理系统逐步完善,电池的使用寿命确实是在延长,这也是个不争的事实。

With regard to the problem that the depreciation cost is reduced due to the lengthening of the service life, anyone with some common sense understands that extending the service life of the battery is the key breakthrough direction no matter from the development of technology or the needs of the market, and with the passage of time, the battery and related management systems are gradually improved, and the service life of the battery is indeed extending, which is also an indisputable fact.

2)超售电池包,从而夸大营收或盈利能力。报告称,截至2021年9月底,蔚能持有4超过万个电池,但最近发行的绿色电池资产支持票据(ABN)筹集资金期间仅有1.9万个BaaS订单。

2) oversold battery packs, thus exaggerating revenue or profitability. As of the end of September 2021, Viagra held more than 40,000 batteries, but there were only 19000 BaaS orders during the funding period of the recently issued Green Battery Asset support Note (ABN), the report said.

对此,小摩、大和资本以及花旗等多家大行一致认为,蔚能发行ABN时的基础资产(1.9万个),只是全部基础资产(超4万个)的一部分,且蔚能持有的每块电池都有其相应的基础用户。

In this regard, Xiaomo, Daiwa Capital, Citigroup and other major banks agreed that the basic assets (19000) when Weineng issued ABN was only part of the total basic assets (more than 40, 000), and each battery held by Weineng had its corresponding basic users.

这其实是典型的混淆概念行为,即灰熊错误地理解ABN基础资产与总用户规模等同,混淆了电池库存与用户之间的比例,从而得出超售和收入夸大的误导性结论。

In fact, this is a typical confusion behavior, that is, Grizzlies misunderstand that the basic assets of ABN are equal to the total user size, confuse the ratio of battery inventory to users, and come to the misleading conclusion of oversold and oversold revenue.

同时,花旗还进一步指出,截至2021年9月,蔚来拥有4万名BaaS用户,鉴于2020年Q4至2021年Q3的8.4万销量以及较高的BaaS订阅率(目前接近50%),这一数字看起来是可以实现的,但报告并没有准确反映这些细节。

At the same time, Citi further pointed out that NIO Inc. had 40, 000 BaaS users as of September 2021, which appears to be achievable given the 84000 sales of Q3 from 2020 to 2021 and the high BaaS subscription rate (currently close to 50%), but the report does not accurately reflect these details.

3)提前确认收入:蔚来将收取月度订阅费的负担转移给蔚能,加速收入增长;蔚能允许蔚来立即确认他们出售的电池的收入,而不是在订阅期(约7年)确认收入。理应在订阅期(约7年内)逐步确认的收入,却在蔚来向蔚能销售电池完成后,立即确认了。通过这一安排,我们认为,蔚来提前7年虚增了收入。

3) confirm revenue in advance: NIO Inc. transfers the burden of collecting monthly subscription fees to Suneng to accelerate revenue growth, which allows NIO Inc. to immediately recognize the revenue of the batteries they sell, rather than during the subscription period (about 7 years). The revenue that should have been gradually recognized during the subscription period (about 7 years) was confirmed immediately after NIO Inc. completed the sale of batteries to Weineng. Through this arrangement, we believe that NIO Inc. falsely increased his income seven years ahead of schedule.

小摩认为,OEM和汽车金融确实存在相似之处。OEM在向客户售车时记录所有收入,而AFC(以汽车为基础资产/抵押品)确认客户每月支付的抵押贷款费用。

Xiaomo believes that there are indeed similarities between OEM and auto finance. OEM records all income when selling cars to customers, while AFC (car-based assets / collateral) recognizes the monthly mortgage payments made by customers.

从根本上来说,灰熊的指控是基于对蔚来商业模式及换电模式的一种误读,甚至被分析人士称之为基于线性思考的“无脑黑”。

Fundamentally, the grizzly bear's accusation is based on a misunderstanding of NIO Inc. 's business model and power exchange model, and is even described by analysts as "brainless black" based on linear thinking.

6月交付量“回归”,获多家大行长期看好
June delivery volume "return", won a number of big banks long-term optimistic

灰熊可能也没料到此行会如此不幸,除了被国际投行集体教育之外,紧接着还被蔚来用实力打脸。

Grizzly bears may not have expected that this trip would be so unfortunate. In addition to being collectively educated by international investment banks, grizzly bears were immediately hit in the face by NIO Inc. with his strength.

也就在昨天,多家新能源车企的6月交付战报出炉,其中蔚来以1.3万台左右的交付量,创今年以来月度新高,宣告强势回归。其中,ET7交付量达4349辆。

Just yesterday, the June delivery reports of a number of new energy car companies were released, of which NIO Inc. made a monthly high of about 13000 units, announcing a strong return. Among them, ET7 delivery volume reached 4349.

对此,蔚来给出的答案是:目前,供应链和整车生产已全面恢复,上海等地的交付工作步入正轨。接下来,位于新桥智能电动汽车产业园区的蔚来第二生产基地也将于Q3正式投产。

In this regard, NIO Inc. 's answer is: at present, the supply chain and vehicle production have been fully restored, and the delivery work in Shanghai and other places is on the right track. Next, NIO Inc. 's second production base, located in Xinqiao Intelligent Electric vehicle Industrial Park, will also be officially put into production in Q3.

看来,此次“交付回归”,说明供应链方面的担忧正在化解,其中ET7 的交付颇为强劲,在蔚来目前的四款交付车型中,其已占到月交付量的三分之一以上。

It seems that this "delivery return" shows that supply chain concerns are being resolved, of which ET7 delivery is quite strong, accounting for more than 1/3 of the monthly delivery of NIO Inc. 's current four delivery models.

与此同时,智能电动中大型SUV ES7以及搭载Alder·赤杨智能系统的ES8、ES6、EC6,以上车型预计将于8月开启交付。

At the same time, the delivery of medium and large SUV ES7 in smart electric and ES8, ES6 and EC6 equipped with Alder Chiyang intelligent system is expected to start in August.

这也意味着供应链恢复以及下半年多款新车型的密集交付,在多地汽车消费刺激的助力下,叠加上游大宗商品价格集中走低,有望实现迎来“量利”齐升的局面。

This also means that the recovery of the supply chain and the intensive delivery of a number of new models in the second half of the year, helped by the stimulus of car consumption in many places, superimposed lower upstream commodity prices, which is expected to usher in a situation of "volume profit" rising.

而在以智能化为主导的新能源车下半场,以高端的智能软硬件配置驱动下的驾乘体验成为核心卖点之一。而不论是技术的迭代,还是搭载先进技术的新车型的快速推出,都依赖于背后底层的科技能力及研发创新平台的支撑。而经过多年积累,蔚来已构建起较为全面的技术版图,从电机、电控、电池包、到智能系统等核心部件构建一套较为完整的独立研发体系。

In the second half of the new energy vehicle dominated by intelligence, the driving experience driven by high-end intelligent software and hardware configuration has become one of the core selling points. Whether it is the iteration of technology, or the rapid launch of new models with advanced technology, all rely on the underlying scientific and technological capabilities and the support of R & D and innovation platform. After years of accumulation, NIO Inc. has built a more comprehensive technical layout, from motor, electric control, battery package, to intelligent systems and other core components to build a relatively complete independent R & D system.

NT2.0作为蔚来目前最新一代技术平台,搭载了更多先进技术,可实现超过200项的全新功能等。目前基于此平台已推出三款的车型,包括ES7、ET5和ET7,都相继进入密集投放期。随着技术升级及新车型密集交付,蔚来产品竞争力将进一步增强,从而确保未来增长的确定及持续性。

As the latest technology platform of NIO Inc., NT2.0 is equipped with more advanced technology and can realize more than 200 new functions. At present, three models have been launched based on this platform, including ES7, ET5 and ET7, which have entered the intensive launch period. With the technological upgrading and intensive delivery of new models, the competitiveness of NIO Inc. 's products will be further enhanced to ensure the determination and sustainability of future growth.

基于核心技术创新和基础建设的持续完善,蔚来在以往的投入和布局,目前已显成效,并成为加速发展的前提。对于蔚来的“未来”,各大投行亦纷纷看好,预期中长期销量将高速增长,认为其基本面将持续向好。其中,中金公司认为,作为高端智能电动领跑者,蔚来以卓越服务重塑商业模式,该模式具有价值稀缺性。高质量的服务和基于自主研究的智能电动汽车技术将加强蔚来的竞争优势。

Based on the core technological innovation and the continuous improvement of infrastructure, NIO Inc. 's previous investment and layout has achieved remarkable results and has become a prerequisite for accelerating development. For NIO Inc. 's "future", the major investment banks are also optimistic, expect medium-and long-term sales will be rapid growth, that its fundamentals will continue to improve. Among them, China International Capital Corporation believes that, as a high-end intelligent electric leader, NIO Inc. reshapes the business model with excellent service, which is valuable and scarce. High-quality service and intelligent electric vehicle technology based on independent research will strengthen NIO Inc. 's competitive advantage.

目前,新能源依旧高景气,只要有足够的业绩支撑或有改善迹象的都有较大概率重获资金的青睐。持续向好的蔚来,弄得灰熊有些“灰头土脸”,但被其吓出来的“坑”,反倒给投资者创造了一个有利的介入时机。

At present, new energy is still booming, as long as there are sufficient performance support or signs of improvement, there is a high probability of regaining the favor of funds. Continue to be good to NIO Inc., so that the grizzly bear some "gray face", but scared out of the "pit", on the contrary, to create a favorable opportunity for investors to intervene.

This page is machine-translated. Futubull tries to improve but do not guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the translation, and will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by any inaccuracy or omission of the translation.

Risk disclosure: The above content only represents the opinion of the authors or guests, and does not represent any positions of Futu or constitute any investment advice on the part of Futu. Before making any investment decision, investors should consider the risk factors related to investment products based on their own circumstances and consult professional investment advisers where necessary. Futu makes every effort to verify the authenticity, accuracy, and originality of the above content, but does not make any guarantees or promises.

Back to the Top