The company's installed capacity of wind power continues to improve, and the position of the industry is stable.
At present, the company's main business is wind power generation business, and its revenue growth is mainly driven by wind power. The company has maintained steady revenue growth in recent years, mainly benefiting from the increase in wind power sales brought about by the continuous expansion of wind power installed capacity. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved operating income of 10.422 billion yuan, a slight increase of 5.82% over the same period last year, and the net profit of shareholders belonging to the parent company was 2.254 billion yuan, down 21.33% from the same period last year.
The goal of "double carbon" promotes the transformation of power structure, and the installation of landscape is expected to maintain rapid growth under the help of the goal of "double carbon", which puts forward new requirements for the optimization and transformation of power structure in our country. With the rapid growth of new energy installation and the increasing proportion of parity projects, the impact of stock subsidy arrears will become smaller and smaller, and the problem of stock subsidy is expected to gradually get policy attention and improvement.
The goal of the 14th five-year Plan is ambitious, and the rapid growth of future installed capacity can be expected to increase the installed capacity of the National Energy Group by 7000 to 80 million kilowatts during the 14th five-year Plan period. China Longyuan Power Group Corporation, as the main body of the new energy development of the National Energy Group, is expected to increase the installed capacity of new energy by more than 3000 million kilowatts during the 14th five-year Plan period. In addition, the Group has committed to inject other existing wind power business into China Longyuan Power Group Corporation within 3 years after the completion of the share swap and asset acquisition transactions, with a total wind power scale of 2140.67 gigawatts outside the Group.
For the first time, coverage will be rated as "overweight".
We estimate that from 2022 to 2024, the company will achieve operating income of 41.227 billion yuan (an increase of 10.80% over the same period last year), 454.03 yuan and 50.122 billion yuan, with a compound growth of 10.44% in the next three years based on 2021; the net profit attributed to the parent company is 76.32 (year-on-year growth of 19.18%), 92.71 and 10.913 billion yuan. The total share capital is 8.382 billion shares, corresponding to EPS0.91, 1.11 and 1.30 yuan. On June 27, 2022, the stock price was 21.65 yuan, corresponding to a market capitalization of 181.5 billion yuan, and the PE from 2022 to 2024 was about 24, 20 and 17 times. For the first time, we give a "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: new energy project construction is less than expected risk, green power trading and premium is less than expected risk.